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Seriously - the original study doesn't make definitive predictions so it can't be proven wrong but they keep updating the model to push the collapse date back "

Seriously - the original study doesn't make definitive predictions so it can't be proven wrong but they keep updating the model to push the collapse date back "by a few years" because we keep diverging from their original trend lines. Even if their predictions were valid it could be another 'peak oil' moment where we simply invent new technology that undermines the original assumptions.

westcort 3y ago
The comprehensive technology sensitivity analysis already takes into account a possible rate of technology development beyond what has been achieved before, so that argument is baked into this analysis. Another sensitivity analysis for their being twice as many resources as previously known is also accounted for. The initial 1972 estimate placed collapse around 2040. This update places peak civilization around 2018 based on human development index, with slight but measurable decline since, and more decline in the forecast.
- Geisterde 3y ago
  Look at whats happened, populations around the world have been squeezed into a tighter box, war, sanctions, lockdowns, mandates, environmental regulations, inflation, pitting people against eachother. Not a single thing there about our inability to produce commodities due to resource constraints, some nimrod cited oil prices like some oil producing nations couldnt flood the market with $60/barrel tomorrow if they wanted; no, the oil price is high because of a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical order. I see no decline in future prospects as quickly as internet infrastructure is being built (breakneck), nor for the innovation in cars, energy, housing, the only thing that holds a lot of it back is, a rapidly degenerating government.
- marcinzm 3y ago
  > This update places peak civilization around 2018 based on human development index, with slight but measurable decline since, and more decline in the forecast. I read the footnotes, the Human Development Index peaked in 2019 based on data up 2021. In a purely coincidental and no way related development there was a global pandemic in 2020 and 2021. So they're making projections based on a trend of 2 years driven by an unprecedented and no longer active global pandemic (but coincidentally the data for 2022 and 2023 isn't out yet). And you're taking this as fact?

westcort 3y ago

The comprehensive technology sensitivity analysis already takes into account a possible rate of technology development beyond what has been achieved before, so that argument is baked into this analysis. Another sensitivity analysis for their being twice as many resources as previously known is also accounted for. The initial 1972 estimate placed collapse around 2040. This update places peak civilization around 2018 based on human development index, with slight but measurable decline since, and more decline in the forecast.

Geisterde 3y ago
Look at whats happened, populations around the world have been squeezed into a tighter box, war, sanctions, lockdowns, mandates, environmental regulations, inflation, pitting people against eachother. Not a single thing there about our inability to produce commodities due to resource constraints, some nimrod cited oil prices like some oil producing nations couldnt flood the market with $60/barrel tomorrow if they wanted; no, the oil price is high because of a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical order. I see no decline in future prospects as quickly as internet infrastructure is being built (breakneck), nor for the innovation in cars, energy, housing, the only thing that holds a lot of it back is, a rapidly degenerating government.
marcinzm 3y ago
> This update places peak civilization around 2018 based on human development index, with slight but measurable decline since, and more decline in the forecast. I read the footnotes, the Human Development Index peaked in 2019 based on data up 2021. In a purely coincidental and no way related development there was a global pandemic in 2020 and 2021. So they're making projections based on a trend of 2 years driven by an unprecedented and no longer active global pandemic (but coincidentally the data for 2022 and 2023 isn't out yet). And you're taking this as fact?