3 ms·
Maybe the most important line of the paper comes toward the end, in 4.2: "Another uncertainty is the impact of crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the
by zebomon 3y ago
Maybe the most important line of the paper comes toward the end, in 4.2: "Another uncertainty is the impact of crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic ... LtG as a model is not able to reproduce these short-term events. Rather, it serves to reveal broad trends and dynamics."
There's an important connection here I don't think the paper draws so explicitly. What will matter most to any of us, in terms of planning and preparation, is what masses of other people will do in response to these crises, and our models for that are still much less precise than our models for climate, resource depletion, etc. Hopefully we get closer to Foundation territory sooner rather than later, for the sake of better long-term projections, though as we've seen through relatively benign algorithms for engagement on social media, that too will probably lead to some uncomfortable places.
So in terms of personal preparation, until Hari Seldon shows up, our own human intuition (i.e. rolling the dice) will reign supreme. Unfortunately. Does it seem like your fellow humans will innovate sufficiently if every major port city goes underwater? Or does your gut tell you we'll panic, fight a global war, and send ourselves back to something that more closely resembles the 19th century? Feel it out and plan accordingly.