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There's tons of examples of civilizations dying and ending. There's tons of examples of species going extinct. History is not just linear growth with constant

There's tons of examples of civilizations dying and ending. There's tons of examples of species going extinct. History is not just linear growth with constant "defied expectations".

pclmulqdq 3y ago
History is not linear growth, but it is just growth. In fact, historical growth trends are pretty much superlinear. When a civilization/empire dies, people should think of it more like the failure of a company than a zombie apocalypse. People largely continue their day-to-day lives, just with a new person in charge. As a prime example of this, people think of the end of the Roman empire as starting some sort of "dark age" where humans made no progress for 500-1000 years, but it really was the end of one government structure with one power center and the beginning of another. Technology and society continued to develop.
- corethree 3y ago
  > In fact, historical growth trends are pretty much superlinear. There's no evidence of this at all. We are at a peak right now so it only seems this way. (In fact arguably technological growth seems to be slowing down, only IT seems to be growing). Extending history beyond just "recorded history" or "recent history" will make it clear that the earth is full of cycles of dominant species and civilizations becoming extinct.
  - pclmulqdq 3y ago
    I am suggesting that people believe constantly that we are at a peak because we have never been at this level before. For example, this was a very popular belief in Victorian England and the 1650's in the Netherlands. These are societies that experienced rapid growth for a while, and then started to see the top of the S curve. Just like humans see the bottom of the S curve and think "it's an exponential explosion!" (see the AI doomers), humans see the top of the S curve and think "it's all downhill from here," when things are really just slowing down. Now that you have mentioned it, do you have an example of a civilization before recorded history "going extinct"? In fact, do you have an example of such a cycle of a "civilization going extinct" (interesting choice of words to use "extinct" there) where the prosperity of ordinary people materially declined?
    - corethree 3y ago
      Rapa Nui.
      - pclmulqdq 3y ago
        Are you referring to the largely unconfirmed story that Rapa Nui was in some sort of decline cycle before Europeans came and ravaged the place? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rethinking-easter-islands-historic-collapse/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rethinking-easter...
        corethree 3y ago
        First off ecocide is the default narrative accepted by most of academia. You're just posting an obscure alternative hypothesis here that's been promoted to you through popular media. Here's another alternative hypothesize again over popularized by the media to the general public: https://www.americanscientist.org/article/rethinking-the-fall-of-easter-island https://www.americanscientist.org/article/rethinking-the-fal... Either way it's still an example of a civilization ending completely.
    - withinboredom 3y ago
      Dinosaurs. They could have had metal cities for all we know and basically zero evidence would survive until today. All we have left are chickens /s.

There's tons of examples of civilizations dying and ending. There's tons of examples of species going extinct. History is not just linear growth with constant "defied expectations".

pclmulqdq 3y ago

History is not linear growth, but it is just growth. In fact, historical growth trends are pretty much superlinear. When a civilization/empire dies, people should think of it more like the failure of a company than a zombie apocalypse. People largely continue their day-to-day lives, just with a new person in charge. As a prime example of this, people think of the end of the Roman empire as starting some sort of "dark age" where humans made no progress for 500-1000 years, but it really was the end of one government structure with one power center and the beginning of another. Technology and society continued to develop.

corethree 3y ago
> In fact, historical growth trends are pretty much superlinear. There's no evidence of this at all. We are at a peak right now so it only seems this way. (In fact arguably technological growth seems to be slowing down, only IT seems to be growing). Extending history beyond just "recorded history" or "recent history" will make it clear that the earth is full of cycles of dominant species and civilizations becoming extinct.
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  I am suggesting that people believe constantly that we are at a peak because we have never been at this level before. For example, this was a very popular belief in Victorian England and the 1650's in the Netherlands. These are societies that experienced rapid growth for a while, and then started to see the top of the S curve. Just like humans see the bottom of the S curve and think "it's an exponential explosion!" (see the AI doomers), humans see the top of the S curve and think "it's all downhill from here," when things are really just slowing down. Now that you have mentioned it, do you have an example of a civilization before recorded history "going extinct"? In fact, do you have an example of such a cycle of a "civilization going extinct" (interesting choice of words to use "extinct" there) where the prosperity of ordinary people materially declined?
  - corethree 3y ago
    Rapa Nui.
    - pclmulqdq 3y ago
      Are you referring to the largely unconfirmed story that Rapa Nui was in some sort of decline cycle before Europeans came and ravaged the place? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rethinking-easter-islands-historic-collapse/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rethinking-easter...
      - corethree 3y ago
        First off ecocide is the default narrative accepted by most of academia. You're just posting an obscure alternative hypothesis here that's been promoted to you through popular media. Here's another alternative hypothesize again over popularized by the media to the general public: https://www.americanscientist.org/article/rethinking-the-fall-of-easter-island https://www.americanscientist.org/article/rethinking-the-fal... Either way it's still an example of a civilization ending completely.
  - withinboredom 3y ago
    Dinosaurs. They could have had metal cities for all we know and basically zero evidence would survive until today. All we have left are chickens /s.