3 ms·

Not if they paid most with FB stock valued at around $100 billion. Some caveats apply I'm sure, but I have a feeling FB will trade around $100 billion. Whether

Not if they paid most with FB stock valued at around $100 billion. Some caveats apply I'm sure, but I have a feeling FB will trade around $100 billion. Whether it's a good investment at $100 b or not it's a different matter, and people can disagree

felipemnoa 14y ago
I too think that Facebook will trade around 100 billion, at first. My gut feeling is that eventually the stock will settle down to its true value. Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out. To put it in perspective, I do not believe there has been a startup that google has bought because there was a chance it would take them out. The main thing that google does is search, and they still do it better than anybody else. Facebook on the other hand seems to have a lot less moat, as evidenced by this purchase. If their moat is that weak than 100 billion is too risky. It could implode at any moment. The next startup or the next hot new thing could take them out.
- loverobots 14y ago
  FB is probably going to trade at $100 billion day one, maybe a get 20% jump on excitement and I think they will keep that way for quite a few quarters as they ramp up monetization. IMO, they should not trade at $100 billion to begin with but then they have almost a billion people glued to their network. When you take China out, kids and truly old people and you're talking an insane % of the world's online population.
- tatsuke95 14y ago
  >"Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out." Who, pray tell, would these people be? Because that's a ludicrous assertion. I'll argue by analogy here: I don't know anyone who uses Instagram. Everyone I know uses Facebook. Instagram was making zero dollars. Facebook is generating cash in the billions. Instagram has 30MM users. Facebook is approaching a billion. Instagram has some strategic value to Facebook, obviously. But I don't know how anyone can claim that these companies are competitors.
  - slantyyz 14y ago
    >>"Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out." >Who, pray tell, would these people be? Because that's a ludicrous assertion. Well, I would guess the 'hip' people who write for the startup blogs (i.e., Pando, TechCrunch, RWW, etc.) think so, but I think among normal people, we would agree that was a ludicrous assertion.

felipemnoa 14y ago

I too think that Facebook will trade around 100 billion, at first. My gut feeling is that eventually the stock will settle down to its true value. Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out. To put it in perspective, I do not believe there has been a startup that google has bought because there was a chance it would take them out. The main thing that google does is search, and they still do it better than anybody else. Facebook on the other hand seems to have a lot less moat, as evidenced by this purchase. If their moat is that weak than 100 billion is too risky. It could implode at any moment. The next startup or the next hot new thing could take them out.

loverobots 14y ago
FB is probably going to trade at $100 billion day one, maybe a get 20% jump on excitement and I think they will keep that way for quite a few quarters as they ramp up monetization. IMO, they should not trade at $100 billion to begin with but then they have almost a billion people glued to their network. When you take China out, kids and truly old people and you're talking an insane % of the world's online population.
tatsuke95 14y ago
>"Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out." Who, pray tell, would these people be? Because that's a ludicrous assertion. I'll argue by analogy here: I don't know anyone who uses Instagram. Everyone I know uses Facebook. Instagram was making zero dollars. Facebook is generating cash in the billions. Instagram has 30MM users. Facebook is approaching a billion. Instagram has some strategic value to Facebook, obviously. But I don't know how anyone can claim that these companies are competitors.
- slantyyz 14y ago
  >>"Think about it, a lot of people do believe that Instagram had a real chance of taking Facebook out." >Who, pray tell, would these people be? Because that's a ludicrous assertion. Well, I would guess the 'hip' people who write for the startup blogs (i.e., Pando, TechCrunch, RWW, etc.) think so, but I think among normal people, we would agree that was a ludicrous assertion.