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The report doesn't say that collapse is 'imminent'; it says that it would eventually lead to collapse, with their assumptions, one of which is that population k

by Geee 3y ago

The report doesn't say that collapse is 'imminent'; it says that it would eventually lead to collapse, with their assumptions, one of which is that population keeps growing exponentially. Population is already collapsing, so the whole model goes to trash bin with that in mind. Also, the model doesn't take account technological progress or mining resources from solar system etc. It's a very simple model with many faulty assumptions.

subpixel 3y ago
The date range they put forward is 2024-2030. Let’s hope that is wildly inaccurate.
- netsharc 3y ago
  I'm a giant pessimist, and reading articles in August, September, October, November how the previous month was unprecedentedly hot and how scientists are flabbergasted when they see the charts, that range seems believable. I imagine Northern Hemipshere summer 2024 will even be more extreme because somewhere in there is a feedback loop that's driving things in an exponential way...
  - quickthrower2 3y ago
    I was wondering if anyone is working on residential AC tech that can cool your home to say 25C when it is 50+ C outside. Maybe to do so requires insane levels of insulation
Amezarak 3y ago
> Also, the model doesn't take account technological progress or mining resources from solar system etc. Technological progress is not a given or inevitability. There are real physical and material constraints affecting technological development. You can't simply handwave future problems away because "future technological development." For example, it seems very likely that extraterrestrial mining operations will never be technically and economically feasible. We have to disconnect what decades of scifi have taught us about the future from reality. In sixty years of human space travel, we've made very little progress and there's not much reason to hope for much more. > one of which is that population keeps growing exponentially. Population is already collapsing, so the whole model goes to trash bin with that in mind. It's true that exponential population growth is very obviously unsustainable. Unfortunately, the population collapse is another symptom of our problems that will ultimately lead to a systems collapse and likely ecological collapse. People are animals, however much we want to deny it. When animals stop breeding, it's because something is wrong. TFR is collapsing because of poisoned social environments, not because enlightened rational humanity saw the perils of exponential growth and took action. This in turn means that increasing proportions of our economic surpluses will be dedicated to attempted containment and control of our social problems, rather than technological development. That all said, to paraphrase Adam Smith, there's a lot of ruin in a nation. Technology, mass surveillance, and huge economic surpluses have permitted and will permit unprecedented levels of social control that may stave off a systems collapse for longer than anyone expects, even if the resulting society is dystopian by our former standards. And our understanding of our ecological system is miniscule: we can see where doing tremendous amounts of damage at almost every known point (even ignoring global warming), but it's hard to say what it takes to really send us down the drain. It will probably happen slowly, then all at once.
- thfuran 3y ago
  >In sixty years of human space travel, we've made very little progress and there's not much reason to hope for much more. And for reference, it was less than sixty years between the first airplane and the first human space flight.
coolspot 3y ago
> Population is already collapsing White rhino population is collapsing. Human population is currently at 8.1B and growing 1.1% a year.
- froh 3y ago
  the growth is decreasing, since years, and the 2050 estimate of 10 Bn is fairly constant over the past 30-50 years in a nutshell human world population growth overall is due to growing life expectancy, not childbirth, the number of children per women goes down because education goes up and extreme poverty ends. Hans Rosling has a very entertaining way of conveying this.
  - coolspot 3y ago
    Sure. But describing this as “collapse” is misleading. Wake me up when there are less than 1M people left.
    - froh 3y ago
      agreed, there is neither collapse nor explosion. a 1.1% growth y/y easily reads as exponential growth, and that, like collapse is a myth.

by Geee 3y ago

subpixel 3y ago

The date range they put forward is 2024-2030. Let’s hope that is wildly inaccurate.

netsharc 3y ago
I'm a giant pessimist, and reading articles in August, September, October, November how the previous month was unprecedentedly hot and how scientists are flabbergasted when they see the charts, that range seems believable. I imagine Northern Hemipshere summer 2024 will even be more extreme because somewhere in there is a feedback loop that's driving things in an exponential way...
- quickthrower2 3y ago
  I was wondering if anyone is working on residential AC tech that can cool your home to say 25C when it is 50+ C outside. Maybe to do so requires insane levels of insulation

Amezarak 3y ago

> Also, the model doesn't take account technological progress or mining resources from solar system etc. Technological progress is not a given or inevitability. There are real physical and material constraints affecting technological development. You can't simply handwave future problems away because "future technological development." For example, it seems very likely that extraterrestrial mining operations will never be technically and economically feasible. We have to disconnect what decades of scifi have taught us about the future from reality. In sixty years of human space travel, we've made very little progress and there's not much reason to hope for much more. > one of which is that population keeps growing exponentially. Population is already collapsing, so the whole model goes to trash bin with that in mind. It's true that exponential population growth is very obviously unsustainable. Unfortunately, the population collapse is another symptom of our problems that will ultimately lead to a systems collapse and likely ecological collapse. People are animals, however much we want to deny it. When animals stop breeding, it's because something is wrong. TFR is collapsing because of poisoned social environments, not because enlightened rational humanity saw the perils of exponential growth and took action. This in turn means that increasing proportions of our economic surpluses will be dedicated to attempted containment and control of our social problems, rather than technological development. That all said, to paraphrase Adam Smith, there's a lot of ruin in a nation. Technology, mass surveillance, and huge economic surpluses have permitted and will permit unprecedented levels of social control that may stave off a systems collapse for longer than anyone expects, even if the resulting society is dystopian by our former standards. And our understanding of our ecological system is miniscule: we can see where doing tremendous amounts of damage at almost every known point (even ignoring global warming), but it's hard to say what it takes to really send us down the drain. It will probably happen slowly, then all at once.

thfuran 3y ago
>In sixty years of human space travel, we've made very little progress and there's not much reason to hope for much more. And for reference, it was less than sixty years between the first airplane and the first human space flight.

coolspot 3y ago

> Population is already collapsing White rhino population is collapsing. Human population is currently at 8.1B and growing 1.1% a year.

froh 3y ago
the growth is decreasing, since years, and the 2050 estimate of 10 Bn is fairly constant over the past 30-50 years in a nutshell human world population growth overall is due to growing life expectancy, not childbirth, the number of children per women goes down because education goes up and extreme poverty ends. Hans Rosling has a very entertaining way of conveying this.
- coolspot 3y ago
  Sure. But describing this as “collapse” is misleading. Wake me up when there are less than 1M people left.
  - froh 3y ago
    agreed, there is neither collapse nor explosion. a 1.1% growth y/y easily reads as exponential growth, and that, like collapse is a myth.