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Yeah I think it's likely that we have been (and are being) over-optimistic about many things and under-optimistic about many others. But the outcome is very sen

Yeah I think it's likely that we have been (and are being) over-optimistic about many things and under-optimistic about many others. But the outcome is very sensitive to exactly which things are which, and which feedback loops they contribute to in which direction. It's just genuinely hard to know where things are headed. The only thing for it is to gather and analyze as much information as possible, constantly, and adapt to it wisely as it comes in. But this isn't all that satisfying a conclusion for either the doom and gloom crowd or the optimistic crowd :)

aeturnum 3y ago
Yah - I guess what I am saying is that in order to write the, "factor X is worse than we thought" article - you need to know what factor X was before. So really...people who do this work must have a set of coefficients that go into their models. I don't think it's fair to expect popular reporting like this to cover every factor...but I think we could do a better job of sharing the most recent set.