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It's quite possible that we reach a new "stable" state. There is a lot of land in Siberia, Canada and Greenland that might become well suited to agriculture as

It's quite possible that we reach a new "stable" state. There is a lot of land in Siberia, Canada and Greenland that might become well suited to agriculture as temperatures increase. Meanwhile the Northern shipping routes open up as the northern ice caps retreat, making these regions even more attractive. But this would come with monumental challenges, the kinds that have caused previous civilizations to collapse. Billions of people live in regions that will reach hostile temperatures or that will have population centers destroyed by sea level rise. Imagine a large portion of them moving North and South to more hospitable climates. Russia might have won the lottery in terms of future-proof land, but trying to control migration across its Southern border would be a near impossible challenge. Meanwhile the EU has a ... complicated relationship with border control right now, and will be faced with a lot worse.

barbazoo 3y ago
And that’s assuming borders have any meaning at all when it comes to the problems we’re facing. We’re all on this planet together and if land becomes uninhabitable those people need to go and live somewhere. Whether that somewhere is beyond a border is irrelevant. People will just go where they don’t starve, die or be persecuted etc and that’s their right to do so. The borders we have were made in the context that won’t exist 50 years from now. Everyone will have to adapt. No one will be untouched from climate change just because of their winning ticket at the lottery of birth.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  That is the optimistic scenario. Even possible that productivity and wealth growth increases in some scenario like that.
- netsharc 3y ago
  > We’re all on this planet together Too optimistic. The borders will become the lines in people's heads where people say "This is our territory, we own the food and water here, we don't have enough, so you stay out and here are the bullets to help us keep you out.". And the other side will say "We're dying of hunger and thirst, we will ignore the lines, and here are the bullets to help us.".

barbazoo 3y ago

And that’s assuming borders have any meaning at all when it comes to the problems we’re facing. We’re all on this planet together and if land becomes uninhabitable those people need to go and live somewhere. Whether that somewhere is beyond a border is irrelevant. People will just go where they don’t starve, die or be persecuted etc and that’s their right to do so. The borders we have were made in the context that won’t exist 50 years from now. Everyone will have to adapt. No one will be untouched from climate change just because of their winning ticket at the lottery of birth.

RandomLensman 3y ago
That is the optimistic scenario. Even possible that productivity and wealth growth increases in some scenario like that.
netsharc 3y ago
> We’re all on this planet together Too optimistic. The borders will become the lines in people's heads where people say "This is our territory, we own the food and water here, we don't have enough, so you stay out and here are the bullets to help us keep you out.". And the other side will say "We're dying of hunger and thirst, we will ignore the lines, and here are the bullets to help us.".