5 ms·
There's maybe some counterintuitive math going on here. If you have 100 songs and listen to 1 song per day (which is 1% of the library), on any given day your
by cvoss 3y ago
There's maybe some counterintuitive math going on here.
If you have 100 songs and listen to 1 song per day (which is 1% of the library), on any given day your odds of hearing the same song as yesterday are 1 in a 100.
If you have 1000 songs and listen to 10 per day (still 1%), the odds of hearing a song that was also played yesterday are a little less than 1 in 10, right?
So what matters is not only what fraction of your library's play time you sample daily, but also how finely subdivided the time is into individual tracks for sampling.
- brasetvik 3y agoA bit of birthday paradox too? :)
- crazygringo 3y ago> If you have 1000 songs and listen to 10 per day (still 1%), the odds of hearing a song that was also played yesterday are a little less than 1 in 10, right? No. It's 10*(1/1000)=1%. It'll happen a few times a year only.
- nemetroid 3y agoThe odds of hearing a specific song that was played yesterday is ~1%, the odds of hearing any song that was played yesterday is ~10%.
- j4yav 3y agoWhat are the chances of hearing the same three or four every day for a week though out of a set of a thousand? Certainly that must be quite unlikely.
- crazygringo 3y agoNo it's not. That's already accounted for by the "10*". It's 1%. Any specific song is 0.1%.
- nemetroid 3y agoThat's not quite right. You need one 10 for the fact that you listened to ten songs yesterday, and another 10 for the fact that you're listening to ten songs today. Assume that you got 10 unique songs yesterday, which is the case ~96% of the time. Then there are 990 songs you didn't hear yesterday, and for every song you listen to today, there is a 990/1000 chance that it's one of those songs. Hence the chance of only hearing new songs today is (990/1000)^10 = 90.4%.