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ultimately, are the days of a blue collar engineer in the west limited? you mentioned the new grad pipelines have already moved what advice would you give to

ultimately, are the days of a blue collar engineer in the west limited? you mentioned the new grad pipelines have already moved what advice would you give to a engineer in the west hcol, pivot to product?

blagie 3y ago
Personally, I see the opposite trend: decreased differences in salary and cost-of-living. As developing countries develop, they'll look more and more like the US. Put another way: Since WWII, we've been moving from US engineers (used broadly) with US as the only country who can afford our products to global engineers with everyone buying products. There's no magic "US is a superpower fairy" which guarantees US salaries, cost-of-living, etc. will be 10x higher than everywhere else forever. I can't predict the future, so I don't know what that will do for jobs outlook, but it's not as simple as "they're coming for our jobs." My biggest worry is that the US is increasingly training incompetent engineers (again, used broadly). Much of the rest of the world has much better math and science in K-12. In winner-takes-all markets, 7-figure salaries can make sense sometimes to get the best over low 5-figure ones in the developing world, but if we're not the best....
- MuffinFlavored 3y ago
  > As developing countries develop, they'll look more and more like the US. A one bedroom apartment in my city rents for $1,800/mo - $2,200/mo and it's very "nothing burger" in terms of what you get. I'd imagine the rest of the world has a lot of catching up to do in that department?
  - blagie 3y ago
    First place on a web search in... Shanghai: https://www.smartshanghai.com/housing/apartments-rent/1569779 https://www.smartshanghai.com/housing/apartments-rent/156977... $1200. Delhi: https://bnnbreaking.com/world/india/navigating-the-maze-of-budget-friendly-one-bedroom-rentals-in-delhi/ https://bnnbreaking.com/world/india/navigating-the-maze-of-b... $330 Nairobi: https://propertypro.co.ke/property-for-rent/houses/in/nairobi/1-bedroom https://propertypro.co.ke/property-for-rent/houses/in/nairob... $20 Bangkok: https://propertyscout.co.th/en/spectacular-high-rise-1-br-apt-near-mrt-queen-sirikit-national-convention-centre-1145216/ https://propertyscout.co.th/en/spectacular-high-rise-1-br-ap... $560 Lagos, Victoria Island: https://nigeriapropertycentre.com/for-rent/flats-apartments/lagos/victoria-island/showtype?bedrooms=1 https://nigeriapropertycentre.com/for-rent/flats-apartments/... $400 Ann Arbor, MI: https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/condo,apartment_duplex_type/?searchQueryState=%7B%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-83.68445239374881%2C%22east%22%3A-83.55956874201541%2C%22south%22%3A42.19630825852001%2C%22north%22%3A42.29371268177791%7D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22fr%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22fsba%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fsbo%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22nc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22cmsn%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22auc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fore%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22beds%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A1%2C%22max%22%3A1%7D%2C%22sf%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22tow%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22mf%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22land%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22manu%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A14%7D https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/condo,apartment_duplex... A bit under $1000 It's actually quite all over the map.
    - MuffinFlavored 3y ago
      Good data. I'm not sure if it proves my point or not or what point I'm even trying to prove about US + engineer salaries + cost of living One nit pick: https://www.apartments.com/ann-arbor-mi/ https://www.apartments.com/ann-arbor-mi/ Under $1k is living pretty 'not so great' in Ann Arbor
      - blagie 3y ago
        I'm not sure the world is always divided into clean points; I just figured the data would be interesting. I've spent a lot of time in a lot of places (including several from that list), and I'm not sure what conclusions I'd draw about cost-of-living versus much of anything. One unusual thing is often the very high cost-of-living in some cities in low-income countries. Like, if you can pay $50/month for housing an hour out of the city, why do people who earn a fraction of what I do spend $1000+ on housing in the city? Why don't people and businesses relocate? I'm sure there's a good reason (and probably not the same reason everywhere -- crime, schools, economic opportunity, social standing, etc.), but apparent paradoxes like that are interesting.
- iwontberude 3y ago
  What about the whole “America has more inter-coastal waterways than the rest of the world combined” thing? I was listening to Peter Zeihan and he said our cheap water based transportation puts us on a very unequal playing field with the rest of the world. He also said it doesn’t matter if republicans or democrats fail in government because our bounty is just that significant.
t8sr 3y ago
The US is a huge market with rules and culture completely different from the rest of the world. If you're building a product for the US market, you just can't beat a local team, who understand the customs, regulations and don't need user journeys explained to them in too much detail. Are we always going to need millions of javascript developers? Possibly not, productivity gains might outpace demand. But people can retrain on things that are in high demand.

blagie 3y ago

Personally, I see the opposite trend: decreased differences in salary and cost-of-living. As developing countries develop, they'll look more and more like the US. Put another way: Since WWII, we've been moving from US engineers (used broadly) with US as the only country who can afford our products to global engineers with everyone buying products. There's no magic "US is a superpower fairy" which guarantees US salaries, cost-of-living, etc. will be 10x higher than everywhere else forever. I can't predict the future, so I don't know what that will do for jobs outlook, but it's not as simple as "they're coming for our jobs." My biggest worry is that the US is increasingly training incompetent engineers (again, used broadly). Much of the rest of the world has much better math and science in K-12. In winner-takes-all markets, 7-figure salaries can make sense sometimes to get the best over low 5-figure ones in the developing world, but if we're not the best....

MuffinFlavored 3y ago
> As developing countries develop, they'll look more and more like the US. A one bedroom apartment in my city rents for $1,800/mo - $2,200/mo and it's very "nothing burger" in terms of what you get. I'd imagine the rest of the world has a lot of catching up to do in that department?
- blagie 3y ago
  First place on a web search in... Shanghai: https://www.smartshanghai.com/housing/apartments-rent/1569779 https://www.smartshanghai.com/housing/apartments-rent/156977... $1200. Delhi: https://bnnbreaking.com/world/india/navigating-the-maze-of-budget-friendly-one-bedroom-rentals-in-delhi/ https://bnnbreaking.com/world/india/navigating-the-maze-of-b... $330 Nairobi: https://propertypro.co.ke/property-for-rent/houses/in/nairobi/1-bedroom https://propertypro.co.ke/property-for-rent/houses/in/nairob... $20 Bangkok: https://propertyscout.co.th/en/spectacular-high-rise-1-br-apt-near-mrt-queen-sirikit-national-convention-centre-1145216/ https://propertyscout.co.th/en/spectacular-high-rise-1-br-ap... $560 Lagos, Victoria Island: https://nigeriapropertycentre.com/for-rent/flats-apartments/lagos/victoria-island/showtype?bedrooms=1 https://nigeriapropertycentre.com/for-rent/flats-apartments/... $400 Ann Arbor, MI: https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/condo,apartment_duplex_type/?searchQueryState=%7B%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-83.68445239374881%2C%22east%22%3A-83.55956874201541%2C%22south%22%3A42.19630825852001%2C%22north%22%3A42.29371268177791%7D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22fr%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22fsba%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fsbo%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22nc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22cmsn%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22auc%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22fore%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22beds%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A1%2C%22max%22%3A1%7D%2C%22sf%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22tow%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22mf%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22land%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22manu%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Afalse%7D%2C%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A14%7D https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/condo,apartment_duplex... A bit under $1000 It's actually quite all over the map.
  - MuffinFlavored 3y ago
    Good data. I'm not sure if it proves my point or not or what point I'm even trying to prove about US + engineer salaries + cost of living One nit pick: https://www.apartments.com/ann-arbor-mi/ https://www.apartments.com/ann-arbor-mi/ Under $1k is living pretty 'not so great' in Ann Arbor
    - blagie 3y ago
      I'm not sure the world is always divided into clean points; I just figured the data would be interesting. I've spent a lot of time in a lot of places (including several from that list), and I'm not sure what conclusions I'd draw about cost-of-living versus much of anything. One unusual thing is often the very high cost-of-living in some cities in low-income countries. Like, if you can pay $50/month for housing an hour out of the city, why do people who earn a fraction of what I do spend $1000+ on housing in the city? Why don't people and businesses relocate? I'm sure there's a good reason (and probably not the same reason everywhere -- crime, schools, economic opportunity, social standing, etc.), but apparent paradoxes like that are interesting.
iwontberude 3y ago
What about the whole “America has more inter-coastal waterways than the rest of the world combined” thing? I was listening to Peter Zeihan and he said our cheap water based transportation puts us on a very unequal playing field with the rest of the world. He also said it doesn’t matter if republicans or democrats fail in government because our bounty is just that significant.

t8sr 3y ago

The US is a huge market with rules and culture completely different from the rest of the world. If you're building a product for the US market, you just can't beat a local team, who understand the customs, regulations and don't need user journeys explained to them in too much detail. Are we always going to need millions of javascript developers? Possibly not, productivity gains might outpace demand. But people can retrain on things that are in high demand.