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> One of the biggest differences that you don't mention is the use of your body. Oh, for sure. I was a dev for many years, then switched to product design. Wh

> One of the biggest differences that you don't mention is the use of your body. Oh, for sure. I was a dev for many years, then switched to product design. What I left out of my first comment was that my older brother is a maintenance guy for a hospital—basically a handyman with an office in the basement. Growing up, it was clear that he was at least as smart as me, but at a certain point he went one direction and I went another. Cut to 25-30 years later: his body is a wreck, mine is okay (modulo poor diet and lack of exercise), he's always broke, and I'm doing alright. When I said that our jobs are very similar, I just meant that, like a handyman, much of what a SWE does is basically attaching one thing to another thing while cursing. That's a joke, but you get what I mean. My point was that neither are rocket science, but we shouldn't think we're especially smart for being programmers just because we get paid too much for it. Add the physical element of handyman work to that and that just underlines the point I wanted to make. > I strongly disagree with "all the out of work engineers and designers will move into those industries. This is timely. I said that because I was thinking about it yesterday, when talking to some friends about what they'd do if and when AI obviated their current jobs (which is in the realm of possibility). A common answer was that they'd become electricians. I think there are at least two problems with that: one is the physical aspect of being a tradesman, which nobody thinks about. The other is that there would certainly be more people going into the trades, not less, if those industries became a safe harbor from AI. Many of these people would wash out, sure, but at least some of them (like yourself) wouldn't. That, combined with all the upper-middle-class people being suddenly broke, would probably drive down wages for people who work with their hands. I can't imagine anything else happening, though of course I could be wrong.

SamBam 3y ago
Having a lot more electricians is not necessarily a bad thing. I've seen some estimates of the number of new electricians the US would need in order to handle the electrification of the country if we want to stave off further climate change, and it was in the tens of millions. This number will be very difficult to achieve, but that does mean that being an electrician should continue to be a good job for quite a long time, even if lots of new people go into it.
- akoboldfrying 3y ago
  >in the tens of millions That sounds... high. There are about 350 million people in the USA (from memory, so this figure is probably low), so even if there were just 10 million electricians, it would mean 1 in 35 people needs to be an electrician. If you exclude children and retired people, that proportion will go up further.
natnatenathan 3y ago
I think it is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that we deserve the insane wages of tech because we earn them. I have a friend who is a school principal and what she does is easily as complex, ambiguos and impactful as what I do, for a fraction of my salary. Maybe what she lacks in income is made up for in the satisfaction of contributing to the world in a positive way? There certainly is a hollowness I feel in tech. I started because I loved technology and how it helped in so many ways — image processing to help my astronomy classmates glean new insights from data. Tech today is about locking in customers, driving additive products and maximizing profitability. That said, I don’t have the courage to leave.
chrisweekly 3y ago
"... smart for being programmers just because we get paid too much for it" I wish people would stop propagating this idea. The opposite is true.
- akoboldfrying 3y ago
  Where I live, tradespeople make much less than software developers for comparable levels of experience, but in my opinion, they are just as skilful and more useful to society. Is it different in your area? Or do you think tradespeople are less skilful/valuable than programmers to society? You could argue that they aren't paid enough, rather than that we're paid too much, but I certainly feel there's an imbalance.
  - moneywoes 3y ago
    interesting, where i live, a bit city in Canada, trades make more
- from-nibly 3y ago
  I really don't think of myself as some sort of genius. It's not productive to feel that way. I want to believe that software is something everyone can do. But I just haven't observed that in real life. I think it's folly to compare the intelligence of a tradesman to a software developer (or anyone for that matter). But there is SOMETHING, that not everyone has (or maybe just doesn't want to obtain), that's required to do software development at any kind of capacity.
  - dajtxx 3y ago
    I don't think you need to be particularly smart to be an avg software developer; the older I get the more I realise how average I am. When I started work as a teenager I used to think I was a brilliant programmer - hah, no way! But I do think you need an interest in the practice and a certain mindset, just like any other job. I do it because I quite enjoy writing certain types of software, which I often don't get to write. I've never been paid all that much for it, never more than about 90K US, and not even that for very long. I think all those FAANG salaries are obscene and there's no way even a small fraction of the people making that money are worth it, or earning it, especially with how they're not making society any better. It's interesting talking to tradespeople and learning about what they do. There's a lot of math involved in some trades like machining and electricians where I live learn a lot of it too while training. A good tradesperson has to be every bit as clever as your normal software developer. My old man was a diesel mechanic, then a fitter and turner and finally did a mech eng certificate at night school and became a draftsman. What he learned was way more difficult than anything I ever had to learn.
moneywoes 3y ago
knowing trade wages would go down, what occupation would you target?

SamBam 3y ago

Having a lot more electricians is not necessarily a bad thing. I've seen some estimates of the number of new electricians the US would need in order to handle the electrification of the country if we want to stave off further climate change, and it was in the tens of millions. This number will be very difficult to achieve, but that does mean that being an electrician should continue to be a good job for quite a long time, even if lots of new people go into it.

akoboldfrying 3y ago
>in the tens of millions That sounds... high. There are about 350 million people in the USA (from memory, so this figure is probably low), so even if there were just 10 million electricians, it would mean 1 in 35 people needs to be an electrician. If you exclude children and retired people, that proportion will go up further.

natnatenathan 3y ago

I think it is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that we deserve the insane wages of tech because we earn them. I have a friend who is a school principal and what she does is easily as complex, ambiguos and impactful as what I do, for a fraction of my salary. Maybe what she lacks in income is made up for in the satisfaction of contributing to the world in a positive way? There certainly is a hollowness I feel in tech. I started because I loved technology and how it helped in so many ways — image processing to help my astronomy classmates glean new insights from data. Tech today is about locking in customers, driving additive products and maximizing profitability. That said, I don’t have the courage to leave.

chrisweekly 3y ago

"... smart for being programmers just because we get paid too much for it" I wish people would stop propagating this idea. The opposite is true.

akoboldfrying 3y ago
Where I live, tradespeople make much less than software developers for comparable levels of experience, but in my opinion, they are just as skilful and more useful to society. Is it different in your area? Or do you think tradespeople are less skilful/valuable than programmers to society? You could argue that they aren't paid enough, rather than that we're paid too much, but I certainly feel there's an imbalance.
- moneywoes 3y ago
  interesting, where i live, a bit city in Canada, trades make more
from-nibly 3y ago
I really don't think of myself as some sort of genius. It's not productive to feel that way. I want to believe that software is something everyone can do. But I just haven't observed that in real life. I think it's folly to compare the intelligence of a tradesman to a software developer (or anyone for that matter). But there is SOMETHING, that not everyone has (or maybe just doesn't want to obtain), that's required to do software development at any kind of capacity.
- dajtxx 3y ago
  I don't think you need to be particularly smart to be an avg software developer; the older I get the more I realise how average I am. When I started work as a teenager I used to think I was a brilliant programmer - hah, no way! But I do think you need an interest in the practice and a certain mindset, just like any other job. I do it because I quite enjoy writing certain types of software, which I often don't get to write. I've never been paid all that much for it, never more than about 90K US, and not even that for very long. I think all those FAANG salaries are obscene and there's no way even a small fraction of the people making that money are worth it, or earning it, especially with how they're not making society any better. It's interesting talking to tradespeople and learning about what they do. There's a lot of math involved in some trades like machining and electricians where I live learn a lot of it too while training. A good tradesperson has to be every bit as clever as your normal software developer. My old man was a diesel mechanic, then a fitter and turner and finally did a mech eng certificate at night school and became a draftsman. What he learned was way more difficult than anything I ever had to learn.

moneywoes 3y ago

knowing trade wages would go down, what occupation would you target?