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The exact same discourse was being said by blockchain (so, no NFTs) people around 8-10 years ago. We were also just 5 years away from getting autonomous vehicle

The exact same discourse was being said by blockchain (so, no NFTs) people around 8-10 years ago. We were also just 5 years away from getting autonomous vehicles around 2016-2017, we haven’t.

atleastoptimal 3y ago
We have autonomous vehicles right now in San Francisco. I understand the blockchain-AI comparisons, but there are a few significant differences: 1. AI has proven to be much more useful in the real world 2. There are more highly respected experts anticipating transformative impacts of AI in comparison to blockchain 3. AI has a much lower scam/real product ratio than blockchain
lelanthran 3y ago
2012. We were sold the 5 year story in 2012 first.
- ben_w 3y ago
  In 2009, I thought (and told my friends that I thought) they were 10 years away.
two_in_one 3y ago
The difference is LLMs are here to stay. They are already very useful and efficient. There is no turn around. Even if current state is the dead end of their evolution. Which it isn't, of course. The future.. there are so many ideas in the air right now that we can expect significant progress in next months and years. There will be fluctuations with bubbles and bursts, but that's how economics works. I expect slow approximation to AGI with increasing capabilities different products will claim to be it. First generations will be just very capable lifeless calculators. Subhuman in general with some superhuman abilities, like LLMs are today. When they will be able to improve themself, so called singularity? We are getting closer. Likely those will be still calculators which can be turned on/off at any moment.
ido 3y ago
Sure, but it was also said about the web in the '90s and smartphones in the '00s and these "hype" techs ended up fulfilling their promise. It's not yet possible to know how the AI hype cycle will turn out.
- otabdeveloper4 3y ago
  Everybody knew that the web was a stack of shitty technologies with clear limitations, but we documented them and worked around them, because there really isn't any alternative. AI hype ignores or wilfully obscures AI limitations, and makes wild claims that range anywhere from curing cancer, to making work obsolete, to putting Disney out business.

The exact same discourse was being said by blockchain (so, no NFTs) people around 8-10 years ago. We were also just 5 years away from getting autonomous vehicles around 2016-2017, we haven’t.

atleastoptimal 3y ago

We have autonomous vehicles right now in San Francisco. I understand the blockchain-AI comparisons, but there are a few significant differences: 1. AI has proven to be much more useful in the real world 2. There are more highly respected experts anticipating transformative impacts of AI in comparison to blockchain 3. AI has a much lower scam/real product ratio than blockchain

lelanthran 3y ago

2012. We were sold the 5 year story in 2012 first.

ben_w 3y ago
In 2009, I thought (and told my friends that I thought) they were 10 years away.

two_in_one 3y ago

The difference is LLMs are here to stay. They are already very useful and efficient. There is no turn around. Even if current state is the dead end of their evolution. Which it isn't, of course. The future.. there are so many ideas in the air right now that we can expect significant progress in next months and years. There will be fluctuations with bubbles and bursts, but that's how economics works. I expect slow approximation to AGI with increasing capabilities different products will claim to be it. First generations will be just very capable lifeless calculators. Subhuman in general with some superhuman abilities, like LLMs are today. When they will be able to improve themself, so called singularity? We are getting closer. Likely those will be still calculators which can be turned on/off at any moment.

ido 3y ago

Sure, but it was also said about the web in the '90s and smartphones in the '00s and these "hype" techs ended up fulfilling their promise. It's not yet possible to know how the AI hype cycle will turn out.

otabdeveloper4 3y ago
Everybody knew that the web was a stack of shitty technologies with clear limitations, but we documented them and worked around them, because there really isn't any alternative. AI hype ignores or wilfully obscures AI limitations, and makes wild claims that range anywhere from curing cancer, to making work obsolete, to putting Disney out business.