4 ms·

You really think there's gonna be an AI winter? Is that based on the assumption that LLM's will plateau? Do you believe AGI is never coming, at least in the nex

You really think there's gonna be an AI winter? Is that based on the assumption that LLM's will plateau? Do you believe AGI is never coming, at least in the next 10-20 years? I think your view represents something I see a lot on this site. A bearish cynicism at AI progess, an assumption that it's all just a hype cycle, comparing it to crypto and NFT's and a confident assurance of the momentum of the status quo which will return when the "hype" dissipates. What specific capabilities of LLM's and AI models would convince you that this is a sea change beyond the normal hype and boom bust cycles of the tech world?

paganel 3y ago
The exact same discourse was being said by blockchain (so, no NFTs) people around 8-10 years ago. We were also just 5 years away from getting autonomous vehicles around 2016-2017, we haven’t.
- atleastoptimal 3y ago
  We have autonomous vehicles right now in San Francisco. I understand the blockchain-AI comparisons, but there are a few significant differences: 1. AI has proven to be much more useful in the real world 2. There are more highly respected experts anticipating transformative impacts of AI in comparison to blockchain 3. AI has a much lower scam/real product ratio than blockchain
- lelanthran 3y ago
  2012. We were sold the 5 year story in 2012 first.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    In 2009, I thought (and told my friends that I thought) they were 10 years away.
- two_in_one 3y ago
  The difference is LLMs are here to stay. They are already very useful and efficient. There is no turn around. Even if current state is the dead end of their evolution. Which it isn't, of course. The future.. there are so many ideas in the air right now that we can expect significant progress in next months and years. There will be fluctuations with bubbles and bursts, but that's how economics works. I expect slow approximation to AGI with increasing capabilities different products will claim to be it. First generations will be just very capable lifeless calculators. Subhuman in general with some superhuman abilities, like LLMs are today. When they will be able to improve themself, so called singularity? We are getting closer. Likely those will be still calculators which can be turned on/off at any moment.
- ido 3y ago
  Sure, but it was also said about the web in the '90s and smartphones in the '00s and these "hype" techs ended up fulfilling their promise. It's not yet possible to know how the AI hype cycle will turn out.
  - otabdeveloper4 3y ago
    Everybody knew that the web was a stack of shitty technologies with clear limitations, but we documented them and worked around them, because there really isn't any alternative. AI hype ignores or wilfully obscures AI limitations, and makes wild claims that range anywhere from curing cancer, to making work obsolete, to putting Disney out business.
djtango 3y ago
I recently read the book DotCon. It's quite an enjoyable read because the author adopts a slightly mocking tone of voice about big predictions like "The Internet will replace print media and even TV". Seemed ridiculous and yet gen Z and younger now get their news from Tiktok and would rather watch YouTube than a movie. What really got me was how both the bullish and bearish views were correct. In 1998 people knew we would eventually watch media over the internet, but it wasn't until after 2020 that my dad would open Netflix first instead of regular TV. In 2020 I saw a whole bunch of businesses scramble to accelerate their "digital transformation" and try to figure out "APIs" and "mobile". So if it took the pandemic for businesses to wake-up to computers and the internet, how long will it take for existing businesses to overcome the organisational inertia to adopt AI? In reality, existing profitable business models will chug along and slowly see their margins erode as new young businesses come along and eat their lunch. Just as Amazon continues to ride the "simple" idea of putting the computer at the centre of a retail business (and decades of good execution) while many old school retailers are still struggling to catch up.

paganel 3y ago

The exact same discourse was being said by blockchain (so, no NFTs) people around 8-10 years ago. We were also just 5 years away from getting autonomous vehicles around 2016-2017, we haven’t.

atleastoptimal 3y ago
We have autonomous vehicles right now in San Francisco. I understand the blockchain-AI comparisons, but there are a few significant differences: 1. AI has proven to be much more useful in the real world 2. There are more highly respected experts anticipating transformative impacts of AI in comparison to blockchain 3. AI has a much lower scam/real product ratio than blockchain
lelanthran 3y ago
2012. We were sold the 5 year story in 2012 first.
- ben_w 3y ago
  In 2009, I thought (and told my friends that I thought) they were 10 years away.
two_in_one 3y ago
The difference is LLMs are here to stay. They are already very useful and efficient. There is no turn around. Even if current state is the dead end of their evolution. Which it isn't, of course. The future.. there are so many ideas in the air right now that we can expect significant progress in next months and years. There will be fluctuations with bubbles and bursts, but that's how economics works. I expect slow approximation to AGI with increasing capabilities different products will claim to be it. First generations will be just very capable lifeless calculators. Subhuman in general with some superhuman abilities, like LLMs are today. When they will be able to improve themself, so called singularity? We are getting closer. Likely those will be still calculators which can be turned on/off at any moment.
ido 3y ago
Sure, but it was also said about the web in the '90s and smartphones in the '00s and these "hype" techs ended up fulfilling their promise. It's not yet possible to know how the AI hype cycle will turn out.
- otabdeveloper4 3y ago
  Everybody knew that the web was a stack of shitty technologies with clear limitations, but we documented them and worked around them, because there really isn't any alternative. AI hype ignores or wilfully obscures AI limitations, and makes wild claims that range anywhere from curing cancer, to making work obsolete, to putting Disney out business.

djtango 3y ago

I recently read the book DotCon. It's quite an enjoyable read because the author adopts a slightly mocking tone of voice about big predictions like "The Internet will replace print media and even TV". Seemed ridiculous and yet gen Z and younger now get their news from Tiktok and would rather watch YouTube than a movie. What really got me was how both the bullish and bearish views were correct. In 1998 people knew we would eventually watch media over the internet, but it wasn't until after 2020 that my dad would open Netflix first instead of regular TV. In 2020 I saw a whole bunch of businesses scramble to accelerate their "digital transformation" and try to figure out "APIs" and "mobile". So if it took the pandemic for businesses to wake-up to computers and the internet, how long will it take for existing businesses to overcome the organisational inertia to adopt AI? In reality, existing profitable business models will chug along and slowly see their margins erode as new young businesses come along and eat their lunch. Just as Amazon continues to ride the "simple" idea of putting the computer at the centre of a retail business (and decades of good execution) while many old school retailers are still struggling to catch up.