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>A study released last month, drawing on police data, found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared with 2019. But, critica

>A study released last month, drawing on police data, found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared with 2019. But, critically, if you exclude New York City’s stats, the number of shoplifting incidents fell 7%, or about 2,550 fewer than in 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice, which conducted the study. It seems unlikely that this would be successful in convincing anyone who feels crime is getting worse. The entire theory is predicated around the idea (true or not) that cities stopped prosecuting non-violent crimes. It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Stores are putting anti-theft devices on items such as toothpaste where I live. I've switched to Amazon anyways, but it's annoying when you need something in a pinch. Maybe they are doing it simply because the anti-theft devices have gotten cheaper to make and use, but I doubt it.

etchalon 3y ago
Shoplifting isn't a new thing, and companies have had prosecution and enforcement policies for decades. Anti-theft devices have been around forever too. I was a fairly prolific shoplifter in my teens, and different stores have been putting different protections in place on different products for as long as I can remember. Yes, devices have gotten cheaper. But I'd argue the "epidemic" is more than likely a moral panic, and we've seen plenty of moral panics before. It's easy to remember back to the 80s where the moral panic over kidnappings reached incredible levels and you'd see stores with intense child protection policies, signs in stores, etc. None of that expense was justified by the numbers, yet stores were doing it. Because moral panics eliminate rational behavior. "They're doing it so it MUST be justified" probably isn't a solid argument.
im3w1l 3y ago
Also why should you discard New York City? Like you could just as well say "if we discard some city where shoplifting fell, then it rose even more!"
KennyBlanken 3y ago
> It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. The retail industry excessively monitors "shrinkage" because it gets to write it off (which means it's in their interests to over-report, not under-report, at least on the accounting side.) From the article: > Even the National Retail Federation, the primary lobbying group for the retail industry, is acknowledging past reports have been inflated and retracting a key point in one of its widely cited reports about retail crime. (These industry reports are frequently cited by lawmakers, journalists and others about retail crime.) Both a study of police reports and comments from retail lobbyist groups say that retail theft is exaggerated. > It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Under-reporting is extensively studied, particularly for intimate partner violence, allowing for estimates for adjusting. If you can think of some potential "gotcha" to a study, research, etc - chances are the professional researchers in that field have as well.

etchalon 3y ago

Shoplifting isn't a new thing, and companies have had prosecution and enforcement policies for decades. Anti-theft devices have been around forever too. I was a fairly prolific shoplifter in my teens, and different stores have been putting different protections in place on different products for as long as I can remember. Yes, devices have gotten cheaper. But I'd argue the "epidemic" is more than likely a moral panic, and we've seen plenty of moral panics before. It's easy to remember back to the 80s where the moral panic over kidnappings reached incredible levels and you'd see stores with intense child protection policies, signs in stores, etc. None of that expense was justified by the numbers, yet stores were doing it. Because moral panics eliminate rational behavior. "They're doing it so it MUST be justified" probably isn't a solid argument.

im3w1l 3y ago

Also why should you discard New York City? Like you could just as well say "if we discard some city where shoplifting fell, then it rose even more!"

KennyBlanken 3y ago

> It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. The retail industry excessively monitors "shrinkage" because it gets to write it off (which means it's in their interests to over-report, not under-report, at least on the accounting side.) From the article: > Even the National Retail Federation, the primary lobbying group for the retail industry, is acknowledging past reports have been inflated and retracting a key point in one of its widely cited reports about retail crime. (These industry reports are frequently cited by lawmakers, journalists and others about retail crime.) Both a study of police reports and comments from retail lobbyist groups say that retail theft is exaggerated. > It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Under-reporting is extensively studied, particularly for intimate partner violence, allowing for estimates for adjusting. If you can think of some potential "gotcha" to a study, research, etc - chances are the professional researchers in that field have as well.