5 ms·

The US shoplifting scourge is a lot of hype with little evidence

16 points by miguelazo 3y ago

poundtown 3y ago
[flagged]
kl2j3tl4tjl 3y ago
[dead]
fasthands9 3y ago
>A study released last month, drawing on police data, found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared with 2019. But, critically, if you exclude New York City’s stats, the number of shoplifting incidents fell 7%, or about 2,550 fewer than in 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice, which conducted the study. It seems unlikely that this would be successful in convincing anyone who feels crime is getting worse. The entire theory is predicated around the idea (true or not) that cities stopped prosecuting non-violent crimes. It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Stores are putting anti-theft devices on items such as toothpaste where I live. I've switched to Amazon anyways, but it's annoying when you need something in a pinch. Maybe they are doing it simply because the anti-theft devices have gotten cheaper to make and use, but I doubt it.
- etchalon 3y ago
  Shoplifting isn't a new thing, and companies have had prosecution and enforcement policies for decades. Anti-theft devices have been around forever too. I was a fairly prolific shoplifter in my teens, and different stores have been putting different protections in place on different products for as long as I can remember. Yes, devices have gotten cheaper. But I'd argue the "epidemic" is more than likely a moral panic, and we've seen plenty of moral panics before. It's easy to remember back to the 80s where the moral panic over kidnappings reached incredible levels and you'd see stores with intense child protection policies, signs in stores, etc. None of that expense was justified by the numbers, yet stores were doing it. Because moral panics eliminate rational behavior. "They're doing it so it MUST be justified" probably isn't a solid argument.
- im3w1l 3y ago
  Also why should you discard New York City? Like you could just as well say "if we discard some city where shoplifting fell, then it rose even more!"
- KennyBlanken 3y ago
  > It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. The retail industry excessively monitors "shrinkage" because it gets to write it off (which means it's in their interests to over-report, not under-report, at least on the accounting side.) From the article: > Even the National Retail Federation, the primary lobbying group for the retail industry, is acknowledging past reports have been inflated and retracting a key point in one of its widely cited reports about retail crime. (These industry reports are frequently cited by lawmakers, journalists and others about retail crime.) Both a study of police reports and comments from retail lobbyist groups say that retail theft is exaggerated. > It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Under-reporting is extensively studied, particularly for intimate partner violence, allowing for estimates for adjusting. If you can think of some potential "gotcha" to a study, research, etc - chances are the professional researchers in that field have as well.
schmichael 3y ago
Oh my Michael Hobbes and Peter Shamshiri are going to be smug. They did an excellent podcast on what a joke this whole thing is in October: Teaser: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-crime-panic-teaser/id1651876897?i=1000632676408 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-c... Subscribers only (worth it imho): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-crime-panic/id1651876897?i=1000632623232 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-c...
- borkt 3y ago
  No thanks, id rather not pay to listen to smug people in a bubble pat themselves on the back by referencing media which exists wholly within their bubble.
  - schmichael 3y ago
    I totally respect that decision and mostly stay away from partisan or rage bait media myself. There's 3 reasons I make an exception for If Books Could Kill: 1. Entertainment value - their banter is just funny. I don't have to agree with 100% of what they say to just enjoy funny banter. 2. They care about Methodology - Michael Hobbes in particular is great at pointing out when news media misrepresents a study by drawing conclusions the study's methodology in no way supports. For this episode talking about how terrible crime statistics in America often are is relevant. Which leads me to #3... 3. They just read the source material. Most of this story is based on just reading the original "ORC" report and showing how devoid of substantiated facts it was. Sure, some types of crime are up! Crime in some places is up! They don't deny that, but they contextualize it. The report that started the national media cycle is quite silly when examined directly.
- junofan 3y ago
  Retail theft is up 64% in my city, and we had to install frosted window film after some break-ins. I don’t think it’s a joke.
  - schmichael 3y ago
sharts 3y ago
[flagged]
Flatcircle 3y ago
[flagged]
DLA 3y ago
[flagged]
nsxwolf 3y ago
Someone should tell the stores that lock absolutely everything up that they don't need to do that anymore then. That would be really appreciated.
- pjscott 3y ago
  Oh, I'm sure those sophisticated store chains, with extensive inventory tracking, have never thought about things like "inventory shrinkage" or "looting" and they're just putting a bunch of locks around for no particular reason. Pretty silly of them, right?
  - gs17 3y ago
    My first experience with stores locking up large areas (besides things like electronics/jewelry) was a Target in San Diego. For some reason things like underwear were locked up. A lot of more expensive clothing was not. Have to be honest, if someone is "looting" briefs, I wouldn't get in their way.
SuperNinKenDo 3y ago
In a situation where the growing perception is that police are doing nothing to stop petty crimes, using police data on reports of petty crimes is a pretty bad way to check the truth or falsehood of that perception. The perception itself leads to less reporting of these kinds of crimes. I don't know what the truth of the matter is. When I traveled to the US a few months ago (from Australia) I was astonished by both how many people expressed increased fear of crime, but also, some of the warnings I got for things that were no longer safe to do. I was shocked by the warnings because many of them seemed so obvious. One woman in SF told us as part of her warning about crime and homelessness that we had better not leave expensive items like phones or laptops out on our car seats when we park. Sometimes I wonder if the bar in America for expectations of safety aren't set differently. That said, whether or not that's true has no bearing on whether or not things are getting worse or better. I'm just on a tangent I don't quite know how to pull back into my main point.
DueDilligence 3y ago
[dead]
miguelazo 3y ago
Seriously-- this was flagged? This site is getting truly pathetic.

16 points by miguelazo 3y ago

poundtown 3y ago

[flagged]

kl2j3tl4tjl 3y ago

[dead]

fasthands9 3y ago

>A study released last month, drawing on police data, found that shoplifting reports were 16% higher in the first half of 2023 compared with 2019. But, critically, if you exclude New York City’s stats, the number of shoplifting incidents fell 7%, or about 2,550 fewer than in 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice, which conducted the study. It seems unlikely that this would be successful in convincing anyone who feels crime is getting worse. The entire theory is predicated around the idea (true or not) that cities stopped prosecuting non-violent crimes. It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Stores are putting anti-theft devices on items such as toothpaste where I live. I've switched to Amazon anyways, but it's annoying when you need something in a pinch. Maybe they are doing it simply because the anti-theft devices have gotten cheaper to make and use, but I doubt it.

etchalon 3y ago
Shoplifting isn't a new thing, and companies have had prosecution and enforcement policies for decades. Anti-theft devices have been around forever too. I was a fairly prolific shoplifter in my teens, and different stores have been putting different protections in place on different products for as long as I can remember. Yes, devices have gotten cheaper. But I'd argue the "epidemic" is more than likely a moral panic, and we've seen plenty of moral panics before. It's easy to remember back to the 80s where the moral panic over kidnappings reached incredible levels and you'd see stores with intense child protection policies, signs in stores, etc. None of that expense was justified by the numbers, yet stores were doing it. Because moral panics eliminate rational behavior. "They're doing it so it MUST be justified" probably isn't a solid argument.
im3w1l 3y ago
Also why should you discard New York City? Like you could just as well say "if we discard some city where shoplifting fell, then it rose even more!"
KennyBlanken 3y ago
> It's unclear to me that if a store realized at the end of the day that $80 worth of toothpaste was missing, they'd file a police report. It's unclear to me they'd file a police report if their security guard walk someone caught someone walk out the door with a couple hundred dollars worth of items. The retail industry excessively monitors "shrinkage" because it gets to write it off (which means it's in their interests to over-report, not under-report, at least on the accounting side.) From the article: > Even the National Retail Federation, the primary lobbying group for the retail industry, is acknowledging past reports have been inflated and retracting a key point in one of its widely cited reports about retail crime. (These industry reports are frequently cited by lawmakers, journalists and others about retail crime.) Both a study of police reports and comments from retail lobbyist groups say that retail theft is exaggerated. > It would be like if you were fearful that police stopped caring about domestic violence - and then someone cited police stats on domestic violence arrests to you. Of course the statistic is going to go down if people have less of a reason to go to you for help. Under-reporting is extensively studied, particularly for intimate partner violence, allowing for estimates for adjusting. If you can think of some potential "gotcha" to a study, research, etc - chances are the professional researchers in that field have as well.

schmichael 3y ago

Oh my Michael Hobbes and Peter Shamshiri are going to be smug. They did an excellent podcast on what a joke this whole thing is in October: Teaser: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-crime-panic-teaser/id1651876897?i=1000632676408 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-c... Subscribers only (worth it imho): https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-crime-panic/id1651876897?i=1000632623232 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-organized-retail-c...

borkt 3y ago
No thanks, id rather not pay to listen to smug people in a bubble pat themselves on the back by referencing media which exists wholly within their bubble.
- schmichael 3y ago
  I totally respect that decision and mostly stay away from partisan or rage bait media myself. There's 3 reasons I make an exception for If Books Could Kill: 1. Entertainment value - their banter is just funny. I don't have to agree with 100% of what they say to just enjoy funny banter. 2. They care about Methodology - Michael Hobbes in particular is great at pointing out when news media misrepresents a study by drawing conclusions the study's methodology in no way supports. For this episode talking about how terrible crime statistics in America often are is relevant. Which leads me to #3... 3. They just read the source material. Most of this story is based on just reading the original "ORC" report and showing how devoid of substantiated facts it was. Sure, some types of crime are up! Crime in some places is up! They don't deny that, but they contextualize it. The report that started the national media cycle is quite silly when examined directly.
junofan 3y ago
Retail theft is up 64% in my city, and we had to install frosted window film after some break-ins. I don’t think it’s a joke.
- schmichael 3y ago

sharts 3y ago

[flagged]

Flatcircle 3y ago

[flagged]

DLA 3y ago

[flagged]

nsxwolf 3y ago

Someone should tell the stores that lock absolutely everything up that they don't need to do that anymore then. That would be really appreciated.

pjscott 3y ago
Oh, I'm sure those sophisticated store chains, with extensive inventory tracking, have never thought about things like "inventory shrinkage" or "looting" and they're just putting a bunch of locks around for no particular reason. Pretty silly of them, right?
- gs17 3y ago
  My first experience with stores locking up large areas (besides things like electronics/jewelry) was a Target in San Diego. For some reason things like underwear were locked up. A lot of more expensive clothing was not. Have to be honest, if someone is "looting" briefs, I wouldn't get in their way.

SuperNinKenDo 3y ago

In a situation where the growing perception is that police are doing nothing to stop petty crimes, using police data on reports of petty crimes is a pretty bad way to check the truth or falsehood of that perception. The perception itself leads to less reporting of these kinds of crimes. I don't know what the truth of the matter is. When I traveled to the US a few months ago (from Australia) I was astonished by both how many people expressed increased fear of crime, but also, some of the warnings I got for things that were no longer safe to do. I was shocked by the warnings because many of them seemed so obvious. One woman in SF told us as part of her warning about crime and homelessness that we had better not leave expensive items like phones or laptops out on our car seats when we park. Sometimes I wonder if the bar in America for expectations of safety aren't set differently. That said, whether or not that's true has no bearing on whether or not things are getting worse or better. I'm just on a tangent I don't quite know how to pull back into my main point.

DueDilligence 3y ago

[dead]

miguelazo 3y ago

Seriously-- this was flagged? This site is getting truly pathetic.