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It is easy to imagine how the unemployment numbers are in reality different than the stated 3.7% (e.g. depressed people less likely to even respond.) However, a

It is easy to imagine how the unemployment numbers are in reality different than the stated 3.7% (e.g. depressed people less likely to even respond.) However, as another comment says, it should be stable across time for the US, even if not directly comparable to other non-US populations. The unemployment rate is calculated from a monthly survey of 60k households.

astrange 3y ago
> However, as another comment says, it should be stable across time for the US, even if not directly comparable to other non-US populations. There are issues with comparing some unemployment numbers over time in the US. For instance, if you sample all ages then the age structure of the country changes, and it'd be kinda bad if the employment rate of children and the elderly was up. This one avoids that issue: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Also, these numbers come from surveys, so it has the same issues where it's harder to reach people over time. I understand they're just about the best in the business at it though.
- egberts1 3y ago
  So we ignore the elders working then, no? After all, the expanding Baby Boomers are backstopped and excluded from UE by the virtue of their Social Security payouts; we still have a UE formula problem.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
1.8M people over 55 die every year in the US, about half of which are in the labor pool. 3.6M boomers retire per year, about 10k per day. A healthy economy creates between 100k-250k jobs/month. I don’t disagree there are people not being picked up in various unemployment rates, but the labor market is tight due to structural demographics. Labor is also not fungible.
somedude895 3y ago
> The unemployment rate is calculated from a monthly survey of 60k households. Is this really true? I thought it was simply calculated from unemployment benefits claims and thus didn't include long-term unemployed?
- defrost 3y ago
  It's computed in multiple different ways that all give similar (bar the differences) highly correlated results: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Alternative measures of labor underutilization https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

astrange 3y ago

> However, as another comment says, it should be stable across time for the US, even if not directly comparable to other non-US populations. There are issues with comparing some unemployment numbers over time in the US. For instance, if you sample all ages then the age structure of the country changes, and it'd be kinda bad if the employment rate of children and the elderly was up. This one avoids that issue: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Also, these numbers come from surveys, so it has the same issues where it's harder to reach people over time. I understand they're just about the best in the business at it though.

egberts1 3y ago
So we ignore the elders working then, no? After all, the expanding Baby Boomers are backstopped and excluded from UE by the virtue of their Social Security payouts; we still have a UE formula problem.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

1.8M people over 55 die every year in the US, about half of which are in the labor pool. 3.6M boomers retire per year, about 10k per day. A healthy economy creates between 100k-250k jobs/month. I don’t disagree there are people not being picked up in various unemployment rates, but the labor market is tight due to structural demographics. Labor is also not fungible.

somedude895 3y ago

> The unemployment rate is calculated from a monthly survey of 60k households. Is this really true? I thought it was simply calculated from unemployment benefits claims and thus didn't include long-term unemployed?

defrost 3y ago
It's computed in multiple different ways that all give similar (bar the differences) highly correlated results: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Alternative measures of labor underutilization https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm