4 ms·

Preventing these bubbles assumes a level of foresight that doesn't seem feasible- besides a general limitor on any and all potential advancements, there is no p

by wddkcs 3y ago

Preventing these bubbles assumes a level of foresight that doesn't seem feasible- besides a general limitor on any and all potential advancements, there is no possible way to know which technologies wil substantively deliver against their promises.

maxbond 3y ago
The software doesn't cause bubbles, the "eat the world" model causes bubbles. When everyone is trying to capture the entire pie, it creates this constant, industry-wide FOMO. Like when Spotify decided that podcasts were going to be big, Amazon felt like they couldn't miss out on it. So Spotify signed Rogan, Amazon signed My Favorite Murder, etc. And they bid up the price on each other and now Spotify is in hot water because the economics don't make sense at the ridiculous valuations they FOMO'd themselves into. I don't pretend to know what a solution would be, but it's not like we have to choose between bubbles and innovative companies; bubbles are about how things are financed, and not about the things themselves. The horticulture industry is doing fine and controlled environment agriculture continues to innovate, without bidding up the price of tulips to something insane. I know it's hard to imagine (and I don't mean to be patronizing, I have trouble imagining it), but we could have a software industry that wasn't predicated on selling dollars for dimes until you've developed a monopoly and can charge high rents.
- wddkcs 3y ago
  Can we really? Where's an exostant model for it?
  - maxbond 3y ago
    Virtually any other business model. You make something people want to pay for, and then you charge a price that compensates you for your costs plus a margin determined by your negotiating power. This doesn't produce eye popping returns, but it does produce financially sustainable companies. Operating at a huge loss for a very long time in the hopes of capturing the entirety of a market is not the norm overall. I know it can feel that way from inside our industry, but that's our cultural biases showing. I'd like to stress that that's an observation and not a criticism, and that I don't mean bias in the pejorative sense.
zcw100 3y ago
That reminds me to go back and watch some old episodes of Connections by James Burke. He does a great job of showing the unpredictable and non-linear path of progress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_TV_series) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_TV_series...

by wddkcs 3y ago

maxbond 3y ago

The software doesn't cause bubbles, the "eat the world" model causes bubbles. When everyone is trying to capture the entire pie, it creates this constant, industry-wide FOMO. Like when Spotify decided that podcasts were going to be big, Amazon felt like they couldn't miss out on it. So Spotify signed Rogan, Amazon signed My Favorite Murder, etc. And they bid up the price on each other and now Spotify is in hot water because the economics don't make sense at the ridiculous valuations they FOMO'd themselves into. I don't pretend to know what a solution would be, but it's not like we have to choose between bubbles and innovative companies; bubbles are about how things are financed, and not about the things themselves. The horticulture industry is doing fine and controlled environment agriculture continues to innovate, without bidding up the price of tulips to something insane. I know it's hard to imagine (and I don't mean to be patronizing, I have trouble imagining it), but we could have a software industry that wasn't predicated on selling dollars for dimes until you've developed a monopoly and can charge high rents.

wddkcs 3y ago
Can we really? Where's an exostant model for it?
- maxbond 3y ago
  Virtually any other business model. You make something people want to pay for, and then you charge a price that compensates you for your costs plus a margin determined by your negotiating power. This doesn't produce eye popping returns, but it does produce financially sustainable companies. Operating at a huge loss for a very long time in the hopes of capturing the entirety of a market is not the norm overall. I know it can feel that way from inside our industry, but that's our cultural biases showing. I'd like to stress that that's an observation and not a criticism, and that I don't mean bias in the pejorative sense.

zcw100 3y ago

That reminds me to go back and watch some old episodes of Connections by James Burke. He does a great job of showing the unpredictable and non-linear path of progress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_TV_series) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_TV_series...