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>That's not something that would be happening if we had 5% growth and 0% inflation like the president claims[1], at least if that looks remotely like it did bac
by allemagne 3y ago
>That's not something that would be happening if we had 5% growth and 0% inflation like the president claims[1], at least if that looks remotely like it did back in the ...
That's exactly the issue though. Nobody has seen an economy like this. Economists who spend their whole careers trying to understand and document how economies evolve aren't trying to pull one over on you, they just aren't sure themselves what's going on.
People are falling over themselves to declare a recession, even though they themselves are not acting like they're in a recession: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023 https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023
>4. Young Americans have a favorable view of their personal financial situation. At the same time, a substantial majority hold a negative perception of America's economy.
Is the economy bad anyway? Who knows! Maybe it depends on whether you want it to be. That Biden tweet and the Community Notes on it are a perfect distillation of how to pick your own narrative:
>Inflation was 0% last month – and our economy grew by more than 5% last quarter.
To me, this is crystal clear: prices on average didn't rise during the month of November and GDP rose by 5% during Q3.
The community notes, meanwhile, is written as though Biden should have said "inflation was 3% during November" and to say otherwise is so misleading that he might as well be lying:
>Tweet is referring to the PCE index, % change from the preceding month. Inflation is normally assessed annually (12 months) however, & the Fed’s PCE goal is 2%. It is currently 3%
All of these numbers are totally accurate. Biden wasn't lying, the Community Notes aren't misrepresenting anything either. There's no contradiction at all, but so many people appear to be left with the impression that deception is happening and Biden got caught.
I am not an economist, but it seems to me that if someone has to think for more than a moment about what "0% inflation in November" could refer to in this context (presumably because they are so incredibly attuned to expecting the "normally assessed" annual number) then I don't think they understand the concept of inflation at all.
If we're catering to people like that then frankly the sky is the limit for giving them whatever impression they want in whatever direction they already want to be led. The same person could also just be confused the exact other way by using the annual number, and assume that "3% inflation in November" means that "prices rose by 3% in November." The same person could think that "inflation" won't be over until prices "go down", so until we have a massive recession and deflation these permanently "high" prices will forever prove that Biden "never got inflation under control".
Maybe that's fine if you're just want to be mad at [current president] but if you want to get closer to the truth or make decisions based on the economic environment as it actually exists then rather than work backwards from the conclusion that the economy is bad, it's probably better to pay attention to both your lived experience and what experts are saying, live in that tension rather than reach for conspiratorial thinking, and withhold judgment until absolutely necessary.