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> As outlined in our 2023 National Strategic Assessment, we estimate that here are between 680,000-830,000 adults in the UK that pose some degree of sexual risk

by soared 3y ago

> As outlined in our 2023 National Strategic Assessment, we estimate that here are between 680,000-830,000 adults in the UK that pose some degree of sexual risk to children. This is equivalent to 1.3%-1.6% of the UK adult population This can’t be accurate, can it? The article says they arrest 800 people a month, whereas the US only convicts 1,600 people a year. What causes these discrepancies? https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/quick-facts/Child_Pornography_FY20.pdf https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-pu...

hnlmorg 3y ago
Arrests don’t always lead to a conviction (eg not enough evidence or the suspect might genuinely be innocent).
multjoy 3y ago
It's likely to be a massive under-estimate. >whereas the US only convicts 1,600 people a year. What causes these discrepancies? Difficulties detecting the offending and the enthusiasm for prosecution.
fer 3y ago
It's a hot topic and I rarely want the Internet drama associated, but the UK LE already failed numerous times at keeping children safe, and they're probably trying to pick up the slack[0]. Searching "uk grooming gang scandal" will add some context. Hell, even "Prince Andrew scandal" would add a lot of context. [0]https://www.statista.com/statistics/303514/child-cruelty-abuse-in-england-and-wales-uk-y-on-y/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/303514/child-cruelty-abu... (can't find a graph like that on sexual abuse cases but there's been constant growth too)
ben_w 3y ago
It's close to what I'd have guessed: • It's a bit higher than the percentage indicating they have that interest in responses to sexual desire surveys, but such surveys are often underestimates. • It's much lower than the percentage of women who report being victimised when they were minors, but one criminal can have many victims. • It's really difficult to prove the offence in a court. • A common argument for harsh punishments is that the legal system is supposed to have punishments severe enough to act as a deterrent (as in not just rehabilitation, compensating victims, or keeping dangerous people out of society). Quite a lot of other crimes, say possession of heroin which IIRC carries a 7 year prison sentence even without intent to supply, also have far more offenders than the entire UK prison population (3x in the case of heroin).
onei 3y ago
Looking at the referenced source which links to their methodology, there's about 75k child sex offenders. 9/10 child sex offenders that are caught aren't on the register. So perhaps the estimate is actually below the real value. https://nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-child-sexual-abuse https://nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-child-sexual-abuse

by soared 3y ago

hnlmorg 3y ago

Arrests don’t always lead to a conviction (eg not enough evidence or the suspect might genuinely be innocent).

multjoy 3y ago

It's likely to be a massive under-estimate. >whereas the US only convicts 1,600 people a year. What causes these discrepancies? Difficulties detecting the offending and the enthusiasm for prosecution.

fer 3y ago

It's a hot topic and I rarely want the Internet drama associated, but the UK LE already failed numerous times at keeping children safe, and they're probably trying to pick up the slack[0]. Searching "uk grooming gang scandal" will add some context. Hell, even "Prince Andrew scandal" would add a lot of context. [0]https://www.statista.com/statistics/303514/child-cruelty-abuse-in-england-and-wales-uk-y-on-y/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/303514/child-cruelty-abu... (can't find a graph like that on sexual abuse cases but there's been constant growth too)

ben_w 3y ago

It's close to what I'd have guessed: • It's a bit higher than the percentage indicating they have that interest in responses to sexual desire surveys, but such surveys are often underestimates. • It's much lower than the percentage of women who report being victimised when they were minors, but one criminal can have many victims. • It's really difficult to prove the offence in a court. • A common argument for harsh punishments is that the legal system is supposed to have punishments severe enough to act as a deterrent (as in not just rehabilitation, compensating victims, or keeping dangerous people out of society). Quite a lot of other crimes, say possession of heroin which IIRC carries a 7 year prison sentence even without intent to supply, also have far more offenders than the entire UK prison population (3x in the case of heroin).

onei 3y ago

Looking at the referenced source which links to their methodology, there's about 75k child sex offenders. 9/10 child sex offenders that are caught aren't on the register. So perhaps the estimate is actually below the real value. https://nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-child-sexual-abuse https://nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-child-sexual-abuse