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>and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially
by trompetenaccoun 3y ago
>and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined
There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily researched. The price spikes are simply based on demand and speculation. Short term there was/is a serious shortage and that's reflected in the price. Also once production of EVs really ramps up, this could repeat. There's definitely no sign of overinvestment in terms of mining and processing.
- otherme123 3y agoI was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered. I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.