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I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we litera

I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we literally forgot how to nail boards together to make a house, it is because we gradually accreted a system where it takes 5+ years to get permission to do it. The bureaucratic capacity to begin building is key, and on the critical path of actual production.

vlovich123 3y ago
Sure but housing is a municipal and state level issue while this mine is on federal land. Your argument is maybe relevant to explain why it was 14 years between discovery and being granted approval in 2021 just before Biden took office. But I don’t know the timeline of how long it took to get the approval once filed - do you? Couldn’t find anything online. Your argument would be stronger about the Maine mine but this mine was approved in 2021 and afaik production is ongoing. The mining is being done by the Chinese as Lithium Americas’ majority owner is a Chinese company. GM has already invested 650M to get access to the mine. This does not seem like the right hill to argue about bureaucratic lethargy. And again, I don’t see how any of this has any relevance as to whether America has the capability to build and run a lithium mine - we do. We may not have refining capabilities (not sure - haven’t researched) but that’ll come online once we have significant mining operations. At the end of the day, you don’t want to mine too aggressively because you’ll shoot yourself in the foot economically. The US has some of the largest lithium reserves in the world. This mine alone would represent 25% of the world’s current production capacity. Ignoring environmental damage from mining (which is quite considerable), if you bring it online too quickly you’ll lose out on a lot of money which is probably a larger factor than anything else.
throwitaway222 3y ago
Actually no, we really did forget how to nail boards together. Skilled labor vanished as other wages rose. Making a new house used to actually cost less than buying an existing one. Today, the calculation has changed, and it is more expensive, mostly because of the labor costs. They're only able to build in areas where there are fewer available jobs so there's no price pressure. Literally people leaving the skilled trades because job pricing pressure to work somewhere else. I've even met jr developers that used to be electricians. It's going to be hard to "remember" the trades. Permits are taking 5 years in esoteric oddball projects. The reality is a permit for a SFH takes a few months to get approved, even less for ADUs.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  Sorry but the data isn't on your side. The population-weighted time to get a housing permit in California, as the most extremely bogus example, is well over 4 years. This information is available from California HCD's online dashboard. The driving force behind high construction prices is soft costs and contractor profits. Labor costs in construction have been roughly inline with overall labor inflation across all industries. See https://twitter.com/FactChecker23/status/1730738575292113347/photo/2 https://twitter.com/FactChecker23/status/1730738575292113347...
  - vlovich123 3y ago
    California definitely has a housing problem and looking at its data is a worst case scenario that’ll skew your perception of what it’s like in America as a whole - this mine is in Nevada not California. Also, I think the state has taken some positive action against NIMBY legislation but it will be a long fight to undo it. If things keep going SF is likely to run afoul of the build-positive regulations and end up suing the state/developers to fight needing to be in compliance. But again don’t see the relevance of California housing which is a municipal / state level issue to mining in Nevada on federal lands.
  - throwitaway222 3y ago
    From your link: https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/Files/Communications/2020_Outlook_Survey_National.pdf https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/Files/Communications... Wow you're waaaay off. As someone in this industry I am acutely aware of how way off base you are. Look at answers 4 - 10, the rest of it backs this up too. I just got a recent permit done in 5 months - plan, submit, approval (submit->approval was 3). ADUs in CA are mandated at 60 days max for approval Also, outside of CA approvals in some jurisdictions are weeks: https://www.reddit.com/r/Homebuilding/comments/sk3bd2/how_long_of_a_wait_is_it_for_permits/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Homebuilding/comments/sk3bd2/how_lo...

vlovich123 3y ago

Sure but housing is a municipal and state level issue while this mine is on federal land. Your argument is maybe relevant to explain why it was 14 years between discovery and being granted approval in 2021 just before Biden took office. But I don’t know the timeline of how long it took to get the approval once filed - do you? Couldn’t find anything online. Your argument would be stronger about the Maine mine but this mine was approved in 2021 and afaik production is ongoing. The mining is being done by the Chinese as Lithium Americas’ majority owner is a Chinese company. GM has already invested 650M to get access to the mine. This does not seem like the right hill to argue about bureaucratic lethargy. And again, I don’t see how any of this has any relevance as to whether America has the capability to build and run a lithium mine - we do. We may not have refining capabilities (not sure - haven’t researched) but that’ll come online once we have significant mining operations. At the end of the day, you don’t want to mine too aggressively because you’ll shoot yourself in the foot economically. The US has some of the largest lithium reserves in the world. This mine alone would represent 25% of the world’s current production capacity. Ignoring environmental damage from mining (which is quite considerable), if you bring it online too quickly you’ll lose out on a lot of money which is probably a larger factor than anything else.

throwitaway222 3y ago

Actually no, we really did forget how to nail boards together. Skilled labor vanished as other wages rose. Making a new house used to actually cost less than buying an existing one. Today, the calculation has changed, and it is more expensive, mostly because of the labor costs. They're only able to build in areas where there are fewer available jobs so there's no price pressure. Literally people leaving the skilled trades because job pricing pressure to work somewhere else. I've even met jr developers that used to be electricians. It's going to be hard to "remember" the trades. Permits are taking 5 years in esoteric oddball projects. The reality is a permit for a SFH takes a few months to get approved, even less for ADUs.

jeffbee 3y ago
Sorry but the data isn't on your side. The population-weighted time to get a housing permit in California, as the most extremely bogus example, is well over 4 years. This information is available from California HCD's online dashboard. The driving force behind high construction prices is soft costs and contractor profits. Labor costs in construction have been roughly inline with overall labor inflation across all industries. See https://twitter.com/FactChecker23/status/1730738575292113347/photo/2 https://twitter.com/FactChecker23/status/1730738575292113347...
- vlovich123 3y ago
  California definitely has a housing problem and looking at its data is a worst case scenario that’ll skew your perception of what it’s like in America as a whole - this mine is in Nevada not California. Also, I think the state has taken some positive action against NIMBY legislation but it will be a long fight to undo it. If things keep going SF is likely to run afoul of the build-positive regulations and end up suing the state/developers to fight needing to be in compliance. But again don’t see the relevance of California housing which is a municipal / state level issue to mining in Nevada on federal lands.
- throwitaway222 3y ago
  From your link: https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/Files/Communications/2020_Outlook_Survey_National.pdf https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/Files/Communications... Wow you're waaaay off. As someone in this industry I am acutely aware of how way off base you are. Look at answers 4 - 10, the rest of it backs this up too. I just got a recent permit done in 5 months - plan, submit, approval (submit->approval was 3). ADUs in CA are mandated at 60 days max for approval Also, outside of CA approvals in some jurisdictions are weeks: https://www.reddit.com/r/Homebuilding/comments/sk3bd2/how_long_of_a_wait_is_it_for_permits/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Homebuilding/comments/sk3bd2/how_lo...