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Wouldnt you want to have a motherlode hoarded when supplies dry up 100 years from now, a commodity that fuels advanced avionics?

teaearlgraycold 3y ago
What do you mean? If you’re referring to lithium battery powered aircraft my understanding is that will never be viable for anything but the smallest aircraft.
- rnk 3y ago
  What does small mean? We have puddle jumpers (few miles between islands) already in service, like 5-10 miles. I expect it to creep up over time as efficiency slight increases but battery energy increases at the battery moore's law like rate it has. Prices go down and capacity/weight goes up. I agree it will have limits, I doubt I'll see long flights like 200 miles. But I see no reason it can't improve by 10% a year just like the batteries. I believe the ones in service are using lfp batteries, which are safer than lithium batteries, but also have lower energy density - and these have gone up over time too in energy density.
93po 3y ago
There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.
- wkat4242 3y ago
  Yeah it's called a rare earth mineral because the concentration in ore is so low not because there's little of it in total. It does unfortunately mean that you need to excavate a lot to mine it which is not great for the environment either (even though lithium is currently key to most renewable technologies)
  - VygmraMGVl 3y ago
    Lithium is not a rare earth mineral. Typical weight fraction in ore is 0.5-8%.
    - Jensson 3y ago
      > Typical weight fraction in ore is 0.5-8%. The lithium mine in question is 0.22%, doesn't seem like your range is that typical.
  - 93po 3y ago
    There's also 180 billion tons of lithium in sea water, which is 1.3 million years of lithium at our current usage, and it would require no mining. It only requires electrodes in water with special coating to keep sodium at a minimum, and of course electricity. The coating is the part that's still being worked on, but they have one that that provides a 1:1 ratio of lithium to sodium.
- kjkjadksj 3y ago
  I’m sure the nuclear physicists 100 years ago assumed the same about our fission energy output by today.
  - 93po 3y ago
    The total world energy production in 1920 was about 60 terrawat-hours. Today it's about 29,000. So while energy still costs a decent amount, there is a massive amount of it. And most of it could be fission based if society wasn't dumb.

teaearlgraycold 3y ago

What do you mean? If you’re referring to lithium battery powered aircraft my understanding is that will never be viable for anything but the smallest aircraft.

rnk 3y ago
What does small mean? We have puddle jumpers (few miles between islands) already in service, like 5-10 miles. I expect it to creep up over time as efficiency slight increases but battery energy increases at the battery moore's law like rate it has. Prices go down and capacity/weight goes up. I agree it will have limits, I doubt I'll see long flights like 200 miles. But I see no reason it can't improve by 10% a year just like the batteries. I believe the ones in service are using lfp batteries, which are safer than lithium batteries, but also have lower energy density - and these have gone up over time too in energy density.

93po 3y ago

There is virtually no way we will ever run out of lithium. It is massively abundant. It's just a matter of how much it costs to extract it. And we'll surely have fusion energy/abundant energy in 100 years and it will make the cost of extraction very close to zero.

wkat4242 3y ago
Yeah it's called a rare earth mineral because the concentration in ore is so low not because there's little of it in total. It does unfortunately mean that you need to excavate a lot to mine it which is not great for the environment either (even though lithium is currently key to most renewable technologies)
- VygmraMGVl 3y ago
  Lithium is not a rare earth mineral. Typical weight fraction in ore is 0.5-8%.
  - Jensson 3y ago
    > Typical weight fraction in ore is 0.5-8%. The lithium mine in question is 0.22%, doesn't seem like your range is that typical.
- 93po 3y ago
  There's also 180 billion tons of lithium in sea water, which is 1.3 million years of lithium at our current usage, and it would require no mining. It only requires electrodes in water with special coating to keep sodium at a minimum, and of course electricity. The coating is the part that's still being worked on, but they have one that that provides a 1:1 ratio of lithium to sodium.
kjkjadksj 3y ago
I’m sure the nuclear physicists 100 years ago assumed the same about our fission energy output by today.
- 93po 3y ago
  The total world energy production in 1920 was about 60 terrawat-hours. Today it's about 29,000. So while energy still costs a decent amount, there is a massive amount of it. And most of it could be fission based if society wasn't dumb.