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"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
by anonporridge 3y ago
"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y agoIncentives are powerful and scale.
- anonporridge 3y ago"Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y agoYep, I love that quote.
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoI think the difficulty of the problem is also important to the outcome.
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoOver what time scale?
- prepend 3y agoHis attention span.
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoLOL.
- prepend 3y agoNot being glib. I’ve read quite a bit of Taleb’s stuff and it sounds like an observation based on how long he’s been aware of the market. Usually if he’s talking about history so if he meant some long term based on analysis, I would expect him to call it out.
- anonymouskimmer 3y agoThanks for the clarification. Market based then, and time scales do matter, as we see now with the issue to entire generations in finding affordable housing. The problem with a market based approach is that when things genuinely do become limited, people substitute or do without. And thus market watchers like Taleb don't notice that something that busted is now fully bust (or has become a luxury item).