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Sorry to burst your bubble, but the article points out it's just good old fashioned speculation in the commodities market! Clearly there was a massive bubble ov

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the article points out it's just good old fashioned speculation in the commodities market! Clearly there was a massive bubble over the past couple of years driven by hype. The spot price is still higher than 2020

otherme123 3y ago
Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined. Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.
- trompetenaccoun 3y ago
  >and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily researched. The price spikes are simply based on demand and speculation. Short term there was/is a serious shortage and that's reflected in the price. Also once production of EVs really ramps up, this could repeat. There's definitely no sign of overinvestment in terms of mining and processing.
  - otherme123 3y ago
    I was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered. I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.

otherme123 3y ago

Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined. Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.

trompetenaccoun 3y ago
>and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily researched. The price spikes are simply based on demand and speculation. Short term there was/is a serious shortage and that's reflected in the price. Also once production of EVs really ramps up, this could repeat. There's definitely no sign of overinvestment in terms of mining and processing.
- otherme123 3y ago
  I was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered. I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.