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Even with recent price spikes on various component prices, the price of the overall good sold continues its march downwards. BNEF's annual survey showed a 14% d

Even with recent price spikes on various component prices, the price of the overall good sold continues its march downwards. BNEF's annual survey showed a 14% decrease in prices (other price surveys will show different results). https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-... The single component price, even of the component namesake of the battery, does not cause huge fluctuations in the overall cost of the battery due to the small amount of lithium cost in the battery and the substitution possibilities for all the other components. And there's even a chance that sodium substitution for lithium could be used in a ton of applications soon. Batteries and renewables are not like oil: a single commodity price fluctuation is not going to disrupt entire economies. They are a much more stable foundation upon which to build an economy.

Gibbon1 3y ago
Thought of mine from 20 years ago is the power available from fossil fuels has been limited since around 1970. Which is it's very price inelastic. And there will never be enough to pull the remaining 2/3rds of humanity out of poverty. The Chinese managed what they did by burning 2/3rd of their total coal reserves in the last 40 years. But what we're now seeing is the vastly larger availability and price elastic supply of solar and wind power. All this stuff, solar, wind, batteries are getting cheap and commodified. The result is the world economy isn't energy constrained for the first time in 50 years.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Good points. One thing about raising most of the world out of poverty, however, is that even with the current energy mix, it would not take much more fossil fuels, and only raise emissions by 5%. A very recent paper with this (somewhat surprising) modeling: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w

Gibbon1 3y ago

Thought of mine from 20 years ago is the power available from fossil fuels has been limited since around 1970. Which is it's very price inelastic. And there will never be enough to pull the remaining 2/3rds of humanity out of poverty. The Chinese managed what they did by burning 2/3rd of their total coal reserves in the last 40 years. But what we're now seeing is the vastly larger availability and price elastic supply of solar and wind power. All this stuff, solar, wind, batteries are getting cheap and commodified. The result is the world economy isn't energy constrained for the first time in 50 years.

epistasis 3y ago
Good points. One thing about raising most of the world out of poverty, however, is that even with the current energy mix, it would not take much more fossil fuels, and only raise emissions by 5%. A very recent paper with this (somewhat surprising) modeling: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w