12 ms·

Oooh. The HN hivemind is not going to like this. More seriously, as I understand it the recent price rises are because it looks like its going to be possible to

Oooh. The HN hivemind is not going to like this. More seriously, as I understand it the recent price rises are because it looks like its going to be possible to buy Bitcoin ETFs and the like more easily?

dale_glass 3y ago
3.7M is basically nothing for a country. El Salvador's GDP is $74 billion, so this is 0.005% of it. And this gain does nothing unless the BTC is sold, and the proceeds benefit El Salvador in some way. This also assumes that amount of BTC can be sold. They need to find an entity that will send them ~$120M for their BTC, and better hope that this won't crash the market.
- ric2b 3y ago
  $120M is, as you said, not that much in the Bitcoin market.
  - dale_glass 3y ago
    It's not much in the market at large, but you need to find some party or several that has $120M sitting around, and willing to exchange that for BTC. I expect making that transaction isn't that easy.
    - weird-eye-issue 3y ago
      Could literally just sell that on one of the major exchanges over the course of a few hours I've sold $8M on Coinbase Pro within minutes by setting a limit order (not a market order - although I'm sure some people will reply without knowing the difference) and it didn't impact the price
    - npoc 3y ago
      It would be an over the counter sale. Even using an exchange directly, together Coinbase and Bybit are trading $1B/day BTCUSD - there's no shortage of buyers.
- toyg 3y ago
  And, all this has to be compared with what could have been achieved with a more typical investment (which would likely have carried less risk) over the same period. If they can make 4.5% speculating on high-risk commodities and 4.3% with low-risk lending to stable businesses, it's much more responsible for a nation-state to choose the latter.
- delaaxe 3y ago
  You don't need to "find an entity" to sell just $120m worth of BTC, just click the market sell button and you'll still get a decent price
- npoc 3y ago
  El Salvador won't ever "sell" their bitcoin. Your grandkids will be working for it.
mgaunard 3y ago
How is that easier? The whole point of crypto is that it's easier to trade on than the traditional assets.
- puzzlingcaptcha 3y ago
  For individuals yes, but not for institutions. And these will treat Bitcoin ETFs as any other speculative asset and enjoy its liquidity.
  - mgaunard 3y ago
    Institutions don't execute themselves and go through the sell-side regardless.
- sph 3y ago
  Not really though. The point of Bitcoin is not about being easier, is about being a monetary system which is not in control of any single entity or government.
  - qwebfdzsh 3y ago
    > monetary system Bitcoin is not even close to being that nor it ever could. It's entirely a speculative assets not an actual currency (I couldn't think of a token/system less suitable to be used as actual money even if I tried very hard).
    - sph 3y ago
      Ugh. I initially wrote currency, but knew I'd get a pedant to disagree with that definition, which I did get anyway. You're arguing its legislative and societal role, I'm calling it for what it is: a thing whose primary role is to store and exchange abstract, agreed upon value. Just tell me what to call that.
      - RandomLensman 3y ago
qwebfdzsh 3y ago
> The HN hivemind is not going to like this A government gambling taxpayer money in a virtual casino? What's not to like?
belter 3y ago
The HN hivemind is just admiring the current price of Tulips
- toenail 3y ago
  After 14 years that's the best you can come up with?
  - npoc 3y ago
    It's amazing how a board full of computer science nerds can't appreciate the accomplishment of perfectly solving the double-spend problem in an open-source distributed digital ownership network.
    - Yizahi 3y ago
      That's a hint for you. Guys Danning and Kruger have something to say about this phenomenon :) .
      - npoc 3y ago
        Yes, you nailed it. They lack expertise in the fundamentals of economics. How can someone understand the true importance of the solution if they can't see the problem?
        Yizahi 3y ago
        Exactly, as we know computer science knowledge completely precludes people of learning any other idea. Our RAM fills out and whoops - no space left :) .
nstart 3y ago
Looking at the price rise from the trading perspective, traders have been drawing lines and for a couple of months now been saying that the large bull run is around the corner. And honestly, if you zoom out and look at just the lines and the last few large bull and bear runs and don't ask anymore questions, it really does look like it's time for a reversal. Seeing people hopping in and buying BTC in hopes of riding the next big wave in hopes that the price goes to at least 70k. Honestly I'm interested in this particular wave since given the recent currency devaluations that have happened since the last BTC peak in November 2021 I'm wondering what the odds are that BTC actually hits that magic 100k number if this is the big bull run people have been waiting for. And if it does, what happens then since that's the magic number the Bitcoin absolutist (maxis?) folks have been waiting to tout. So basically, not sure if the current wave is anything to do with the actual news or just the retail trading that's going on.
- vidarh 3y ago
  People have been predicting far more than 100k for a long time, so I don't think people taking about 100k can be reasonably described as maxis... Highest prediction I've seen is maybe 1m. 100k is a pretty mainstream belief now, with e.g Standard Chartered predicting it by year end 2024.
Yizahi 3y ago
Why do you think so? El Salvador gamble has failed spectacularly and HN crowd is skeptical about tokenbro scammers, so this checks out I think :) .

dale_glass 3y ago

3.7M is basically nothing for a country. El Salvador's GDP is $74 billion, so this is 0.005% of it. And this gain does nothing unless the BTC is sold, and the proceeds benefit El Salvador in some way. This also assumes that amount of BTC can be sold. They need to find an entity that will send them ~$120M for their BTC, and better hope that this won't crash the market.

ric2b 3y ago
$120M is, as you said, not that much in the Bitcoin market.
- dale_glass 3y ago
  It's not much in the market at large, but you need to find some party or several that has $120M sitting around, and willing to exchange that for BTC. I expect making that transaction isn't that easy.
  - weird-eye-issue 3y ago
    Could literally just sell that on one of the major exchanges over the course of a few hours I've sold $8M on Coinbase Pro within minutes by setting a limit order (not a market order - although I'm sure some people will reply without knowing the difference) and it didn't impact the price
  - npoc 3y ago
    It would be an over the counter sale. Even using an exchange directly, together Coinbase and Bybit are trading $1B/day BTCUSD - there's no shortage of buyers.
toyg 3y ago
And, all this has to be compared with what could have been achieved with a more typical investment (which would likely have carried less risk) over the same period. If they can make 4.5% speculating on high-risk commodities and 4.3% with low-risk lending to stable businesses, it's much more responsible for a nation-state to choose the latter.
delaaxe 3y ago
You don't need to "find an entity" to sell just $120m worth of BTC, just click the market sell button and you'll still get a decent price
npoc 3y ago
El Salvador won't ever "sell" their bitcoin. Your grandkids will be working for it.

mgaunard 3y ago

How is that easier? The whole point of crypto is that it's easier to trade on than the traditional assets.

puzzlingcaptcha 3y ago
For individuals yes, but not for institutions. And these will treat Bitcoin ETFs as any other speculative asset and enjoy its liquidity.
- mgaunard 3y ago
  Institutions don't execute themselves and go through the sell-side regardless.
sph 3y ago
Not really though. The point of Bitcoin is not about being easier, is about being a monetary system which is not in control of any single entity or government.
- qwebfdzsh 3y ago
  > monetary system Bitcoin is not even close to being that nor it ever could. It's entirely a speculative assets not an actual currency (I couldn't think of a token/system less suitable to be used as actual money even if I tried very hard).
  - sph 3y ago
    Ugh. I initially wrote currency, but knew I'd get a pedant to disagree with that definition, which I did get anyway. You're arguing its legislative and societal role, I'm calling it for what it is: a thing whose primary role is to store and exchange abstract, agreed upon value. Just tell me what to call that.
    - RandomLensman 3y ago

qwebfdzsh 3y ago

> The HN hivemind is not going to like this A government gambling taxpayer money in a virtual casino? What's not to like?

belter 3y ago

The HN hivemind is just admiring the current price of Tulips

toenail 3y ago
After 14 years that's the best you can come up with?
- npoc 3y ago
  It's amazing how a board full of computer science nerds can't appreciate the accomplishment of perfectly solving the double-spend problem in an open-source distributed digital ownership network.
  - Yizahi 3y ago
    That's a hint for you. Guys Danning and Kruger have something to say about this phenomenon :) .
    - npoc 3y ago
      Yes, you nailed it. They lack expertise in the fundamentals of economics. How can someone understand the true importance of the solution if they can't see the problem?
      - Yizahi 3y ago
        Exactly, as we know computer science knowledge completely precludes people of learning any other idea. Our RAM fills out and whoops - no space left :) .

nstart 3y ago

Looking at the price rise from the trading perspective, traders have been drawing lines and for a couple of months now been saying that the large bull run is around the corner. And honestly, if you zoom out and look at just the lines and the last few large bull and bear runs and don't ask anymore questions, it really does look like it's time for a reversal. Seeing people hopping in and buying BTC in hopes of riding the next big wave in hopes that the price goes to at least 70k. Honestly I'm interested in this particular wave since given the recent currency devaluations that have happened since the last BTC peak in November 2021 I'm wondering what the odds are that BTC actually hits that magic 100k number if this is the big bull run people have been waiting for. And if it does, what happens then since that's the magic number the Bitcoin absolutist (maxis?) folks have been waiting to tout. So basically, not sure if the current wave is anything to do with the actual news or just the retail trading that's going on.

vidarh 3y ago
People have been predicting far more than 100k for a long time, so I don't think people taking about 100k can be reasonably described as maxis... Highest prediction I've seen is maybe 1m. 100k is a pretty mainstream belief now, with e.g Standard Chartered predicting it by year end 2024.

Yizahi 3y ago

Why do you think so? El Salvador gamble has failed spectacularly and HN crowd is skeptical about tokenbro scammers, so this checks out I think :) .