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> If you’re a pessimistic person, you’re more likely to believe the probabilities of some outcomes are low, and make decisions based on that. > If you’re an op

> If you’re a pessimistic person, you’re more likely to believe the probabilities of some outcomes are low, and make decisions based on that. > If you’re an optimistic person, you’re more likely to try more things, because you’ve eliminated less things. Isn't that a manifestation of risk aversion? If you're risk-averse, you tend to play it safe. If you're not, you're eager to try risky things for the possibility of big rewards. Both can lead to preferred outcomes, it just depends on what is the preferred outcome. For some, a middle class family life is an utter failure, for some a dream. Pessimism might be a more successful strategy for those wanting that middle class lifestyle.

haswell 3y ago
> Isn't that a manifestation of risk aversion? If you're risk-averse, you tend to play it safe. If you're not, you're eager to try risky things for the possibility of big rewards. The point is that pessimism directly leads to behavior that looks like risk aversion, regardless of whether or not there is actual risk to avert. Risk aversion by itself is typically associated with decisions that can be made based on actual data about risk. The pessimistic person defaults to the "risk averse" stance without even understanding the risk (regardless of whether the risk is even calculable or worthy of considering). > Pessimism might be a more successful strategy for those wanting that middle class lifestyle. I'm not following the logic here. Someone can be optimistic about life, and still prefer a middle class lifestyle. You can also be optimistic and risk averse. Setting that aside, there are some interesting papers that explore this [0], and I'd strongly recommend looking at Martin Seligman's original research in the 70s about Learned Helplessness [1], which has a close connection with pessimism, or conversely, a lack of optimism. Interestingly, optimism is a skill that can be learned/conditioned much like pessimism, which points at their function as default orientations vs. neutral tools to be applied. In other words, if you're a pessimistic person, you will make decisions based on that orientation, often without even having any awareness of the impact of your pessimistic defaults. This is quite different from a data-driven risk averse decision. - [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3807005/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3807005/ - [1] https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/163862/learned-optimism-by-martin-e-p-seligman-phd/ https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/163862/learned-opti...
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  > The pessimistic person defaults to the "risk averse" stance without even understanding the risk (regardless of whether the risk is even calculable or worthy of considering). I guess you could say that about "blind pessimism". I guess we can discount both "blind" optimism/pessimism as just irrational, and it doesn't make much sense to discuss those. But I think in the case of "rational optimism", the person might reasonably evaluate the risk, even understand it's low, but still not act, because it doesn't make sense given their goals, risk aversion etc. > I'm not following the logic here. Someone can be optimistic about life, and still prefer a middle class lifestyle. You can also be optimistic and risk averse. Well, you defined optimism as spending 90% looking for opportunities. Now assume, that the person in question already has a middle class lifestyle, they already achieved their goal, have basically what they need to be happy. Why look for opportunities if you already have everything you wanted? Isn't it more rational to rather protect those assets you have and always desired? So I don't think optimism (in the general sense) and risk aversion necessarily contradict each other, but specifically your definition of optimism doesn't fit with the risk aversion IMHO.

haswell 3y ago

> Isn't that a manifestation of risk aversion? If you're risk-averse, you tend to play it safe. If you're not, you're eager to try risky things for the possibility of big rewards. The point is that pessimism directly leads to behavior that looks like risk aversion, regardless of whether or not there is actual risk to avert. Risk aversion by itself is typically associated with decisions that can be made based on actual data about risk. The pessimistic person defaults to the "risk averse" stance without even understanding the risk (regardless of whether the risk is even calculable or worthy of considering). > Pessimism might be a more successful strategy for those wanting that middle class lifestyle. I'm not following the logic here. Someone can be optimistic about life, and still prefer a middle class lifestyle. You can also be optimistic and risk averse. Setting that aside, there are some interesting papers that explore this [0], and I'd strongly recommend looking at Martin Seligman's original research in the 70s about Learned Helplessness [1], which has a close connection with pessimism, or conversely, a lack of optimism. Interestingly, optimism is a skill that can be learned/conditioned much like pessimism, which points at their function as default orientations vs. neutral tools to be applied. In other words, if you're a pessimistic person, you will make decisions based on that orientation, often without even having any awareness of the impact of your pessimistic defaults. This is quite different from a data-driven risk averse decision. - [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3807005/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3807005/ - [1] https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/163862/learned-optimism-by-martin-e-p-seligman-phd/ https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/163862/learned-opti...

The_Colonel 3y ago
> The pessimistic person defaults to the "risk averse" stance without even understanding the risk (regardless of whether the risk is even calculable or worthy of considering). I guess you could say that about "blind pessimism". I guess we can discount both "blind" optimism/pessimism as just irrational, and it doesn't make much sense to discuss those. But I think in the case of "rational optimism", the person might reasonably evaluate the risk, even understand it's low, but still not act, because it doesn't make sense given their goals, risk aversion etc. > I'm not following the logic here. Someone can be optimistic about life, and still prefer a middle class lifestyle. You can also be optimistic and risk averse. Well, you defined optimism as spending 90% looking for opportunities. Now assume, that the person in question already has a middle class lifestyle, they already achieved their goal, have basically what they need to be happy. Why look for opportunities if you already have everything you wanted? Isn't it more rational to rather protect those assets you have and always desired? So I don't think optimism (in the general sense) and risk aversion necessarily contradict each other, but specifically your definition of optimism doesn't fit with the risk aversion IMHO.