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> For me, behaving "rationally" means trying to see the reality as it is, being able to weigh all the options, probabilities of outcomes, assigning (subjective)
by mewpmewp2 3y ago
> For me, behaving "rationally" means trying to see the reality as it is, being able to weigh all the options, probabilities of outcomes, assigning (subjective) value to them and choosing from those.
You have limited ability to consume and process information. You can't consume all information. There's billions of bits of information at any given time. It's impossible to predict the future without having some sort of simulator larger than universe. So in the end you must have some form of strategy. On which particular pieces of information are you going to focus? Are you going to try and find opportunities, or are you going to try and find risks, because you can find more than a lifetime of thoughts for both cases.
So you could also balance it out, that you spend 90% time on opportunities and 10% time on risks. It might be more successful strategy than let's say 50%/50%.
- The_Colonel 3y ago> So in the end you must have some form of strategy. Strategy for what? One piece of the puzzle missing here is the goal, strategy only follows from that. I understand this is hacker news, but still it sometimes feels like people here assume everyone's life goal is a multi-billion exit. A more common goal might instead be to e.g. live a peaceful life, spend a lot of time with their family and friends, etc. Such goal will have a completely different rational strategy to achieve it. > So you could also balance it out, that you spend 90% time on opportunities and 10% time on risks. You're equating optimism with spending time/effort on looking for opportunities, but that for me doesn't ring true. Acting on the opportunities is what IMHO is the core feature of optimism. You can have a 90/10 of time dedicated to opportunities/risks, but if you don't make the jump, you're not an optimist.