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I agree on that logic but what I don't agree with is that France could only sell when electricity is cheap. If Germany would be subjected to actual regulation
by seec 3y ago
I agree on that logic but what I don't agree with is that France could only sell when electricity is cheap.
If Germany would be subjected to actual regulation on their coal usage during the winter and actually would pay the real cost with externalities then electricity would get more expensive, making the French nuclear way more interesting. French nuclear looks expensive only because of usage of "cheap" coal and natural gas by neighbors, and while everybody is pointing various nuclear cost that may come in the future, we are already paying the price of burning those fossil fuels. In the winter, French electricity is already 30e/MW cheaper; and that is before true cost is taken into account.
Germany is supposedly generating up to 60% of their electricity with wind (solar isn't meaningful in the winter) but that is largely dependent on the weather. One day they are generating over 30GW of electricity with wind but then other days they are barely hitting the 10GW mark. In the past month, Germany has imported over 1.4GW of electricity from France.
In the past 5 years, their wind/renewable share of the total generation has barely gained 4% while their coal/gas usage hasn't moved at all (and Germany do not heat a lot of homes with electricity so that's even worse)
As it is the share of renewable in Germany in a winter month is just hitting the 40% share mark. They have over 60GW of wind capacity installed, to be viable in the winter without relying on coal/gas or nuclear energy imports they would need at least 5 times this capacity.
You should read about "Energiewende" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energiewende https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energiewende
You can see that in 2016 there were some complaints that this political "project" had cost at least 160 billion in the past 5 years, and electricity price in Germany were too high. German citizens are still paying more for their electricity and they had to subvention their green energy even more (while hypocritically burning as much coal as they did 10 years ago).
If we would regulate Germany's coal/gaz usage then French nuclear energy could be making quite a bit of money, just by running the current reactors to their full capacity. But that's hardly possible because Germany is running the show in Bruxelles and it is always about Germany's interest first. Which is exactly what I am saying: the current economics of French nuclear are not representative of what could be possible, first because nuclear was very unpopular even in France in the past 20 years (only recently gained traction because energy bills inflated and people understood the stakes) and secondly because Germany want to make everyone pay for their ideological choices...
I do agree that France itself do not need more reactors, but some will be built in the future to replace the aging ones.
- Retric 3y agoI agree with your wider point here, but transmission losses favor installing nuclear closer to where it’s actually used. Germany’s investment in solar looks dumb in isolation, especially installing panels in northern Germany. However, there was a real environmental argument to be made that subsidies between 2000 and 2015 were critical to drive down PV prices until the economies of worked out. Today I think Germany investing in nuclear over solar is a good idea. However change has knock on effects. If Germany was producing say 40% of its electricity from Nuclear it would be less interested in importing electricity from France on nights and weekends. Thus France would be facing even lower capacity factors. Southern France however is a much better location for Solar so it can ramp down nuclear slightly while Germany ramps up nuclear. Net result would be both countries and the environment being better off. http://newquayweather.com/solarpv/images/SolarGIS-Solar-map-Europe-en.png http://newquayweather.com/solarpv/images/SolarGIS-Solar-map-... PS: What’s actually going to happen is unfortunately going to be influenced by politics, etc and therefore sub optimal.
- seec 3y agoYou are right in that Germany going into nuclear would not benefit France, the I think the broader point is that someone has to do it, to provide some certainty. But as you say if we were to optimise the installations for the strength of the technology on the different territories, things would be different. I do agree that Southern France can support some decent solar farms, but France is already investing in wind also. I think we have to use all the technologies as best as possible, but for now we will still need a guaranteed generation capacity. I think we most likely agree on the technical problems but the thing is there is too much politics around all this...