3 ms·

Hypothesis: Intelligence is prediction?

romesc 3y ago
Or prediction is intelligence. I think we need a more rigorous definition to go beyond tautology
keenmaster 3y ago
That intuitively makes sense to me for everything except higher-level goal selection. If someone works at an NGO instead of FAANG because they want to do good for the world, how can that be explained in terms of prediction? If someone minimizes consumption to reduce global warming, how did prediction result in them caring about global warming? I picked those examples on purpose, because they run against some core instincts. Maybe they’re predicting what maximizes peer approval, which optimizes other outcomes too? (Jk :D )
- dwaltrip 3y ago
  You are right, prediction doesn’t provide one with base motivations or drives. But those seem fundamentally different than raw intelligence. Your examples aren’t an issue I don’t think. To take one: efforts to minimize one’s consumption to combat global warming could fall in the “help tribe survival” bucket, which makes evolutionary sense as a base drive. And it seems like a reasonably “intelligent” response to that base drive — the predicted results seems positive.
trhway 3y ago
which is very close as to say that intelligence is learning [from mis-prediction], a subject of cybernetics - common machinery across the scales and instances - using a model (brain in case of animals, model/embedding in case of computer, DNA in case of evolution through natural selection) a prediction (which for example in case of evolution is the next generation) is made, and based on the error of that prediction the model is updated for the generation of the next prediction (in case of evolution the DNA of the best fit is the model to be used in the next iteration).
red75prime 3y ago
Yep, prediction of what needs to be done.
iandanforth 3y ago
You might enjoy 'On Intelligence' by Jeff Hawkins to learn more about this hypothesis. (It's an older book / theory at this point but still worth reading IMHO)
stevenhuang 3y ago
Yup, known as predictive coding/free energy principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_coding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_coding as one of leading theories for human consciousness https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6363942/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6363942/

Or prediction is intelligence. I think we need a more rigorous definition to go beyond tautology

That intuitively makes sense to me for everything except higher-level goal selection. If someone works at an NGO instead of FAANG because they want to do good for the world, how can that be explained in terms of prediction? If someone minimizes consumption to reduce global warming, how did prediction result in them caring about global warming? I picked those examples on purpose, because they run against some core instincts. Maybe they’re predicting what maximizes peer approval, which optimizes other outcomes too? (Jk :D )

dwaltrip 3y ago
You are right, prediction doesn’t provide one with base motivations or drives. But those seem fundamentally different than raw intelligence. Your examples aren’t an issue I don’t think. To take one: efforts to minimize one’s consumption to combat global warming could fall in the “help tribe survival” bucket, which makes evolutionary sense as a base drive. And it seems like a reasonably “intelligent” response to that base drive — the predicted results seems positive.

trhway 3y ago

which is very close as to say that intelligence is learning [from mis-prediction], a subject of cybernetics - common machinery across the scales and instances - using a model (brain in case of animals, model/embedding in case of computer, DNA in case of evolution through natural selection) a prediction (which for example in case of evolution is the next generation) is made, and based on the error of that prediction the model is updated for the generation of the next prediction (in case of evolution the DNA of the best fit is the model to be used in the next iteration).

red75prime 3y ago

Yep, prediction of what needs to be done.

iandanforth 3y ago

You might enjoy 'On Intelligence' by Jeff Hawkins to learn more about this hypothesis. (It's an older book / theory at this point but still worth reading IMHO)

stevenhuang 3y ago

Yup, known as predictive coding/free energy principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_coding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_coding as one of leading theories for human consciousness https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6363942/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6363942/