4 ms·

"San Fran is 100% going to end up like Detroit." While Michigan and California both have had historicals booms and busts, I'm not sure the economic comparison

by aworks 3y ago

"San Fran is 100% going to end up like Detroit." While Michigan and California both have had historicals booms and busts, I'm not sure the economic comparison is apt. Detroit lost much of its manufacturing base, particularly automotive. The Bay Area is still doing reasonably well with software and biotech among other industries. It's also a gateway to Asia. Maybe if Google, Apple, the Chinese economy etc. all collapse, SF will collapse as well, and who is the mayor probably won't matter.

incomingpain 3y ago
>Detroit lost much of its manufacturing base, particularly automotive. Detroit the city lost it's manufacturing base to the suburbs. People blame the interstate system here. But when you consider metro detroit, there was never a decline like you imagine. >The Bay Area is still doing reasonably well with software and biotech among other industries. Remote work and people fleeing the bay area is identical to the 'white flight' to the suburbs of detroit. The bay area is basically in 1964 detroit post 'i have a dream' speech. Now, I don't think there will be race riots in San Fran, I still haven't figured out who it will be. I have an expectation the autistic/LGBT riots will be. But you never know BLM type stuff might spark a race riot. >It's also a gateway to Asia. Maybe if Google, Apple, the Chinese economy etc. all collapse, SF will collapse as well, and who is the mayor probably won't matter. What you're looking for here is the capital flight restrictions by China. The move out of China by companies especially Apple. https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/11/29/why-is-china-restricting-capital-outflows/?sh=47cd602649d0 https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/11/29/why-i... I ought to provide a better link but this was happening BEFORE covid, trump's embargos like against SMIC, biden's embargos. China's ongoing collapse. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-s-epic-battle-with-capital-flows-is-more-intense-than-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-s-e... Mind you, San Fran will always exist. Just as Detroit still exists.

by aworks 3y ago

incomingpain 3y ago

>Detroit lost much of its manufacturing base, particularly automotive. Detroit the city lost it's manufacturing base to the suburbs. People blame the interstate system here. But when you consider metro detroit, there was never a decline like you imagine. >The Bay Area is still doing reasonably well with software and biotech among other industries. Remote work and people fleeing the bay area is identical to the 'white flight' to the suburbs of detroit. The bay area is basically in 1964 detroit post 'i have a dream' speech. Now, I don't think there will be race riots in San Fran, I still haven't figured out who it will be. I have an expectation the autistic/LGBT riots will be. But you never know BLM type stuff might spark a race riot. >It's also a gateway to Asia. Maybe if Google, Apple, the Chinese economy etc. all collapse, SF will collapse as well, and who is the mayor probably won't matter. What you're looking for here is the capital flight restrictions by China. The move out of China by companies especially Apple. https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/11/29/why-is-china-restricting-capital-outflows/?sh=47cd602649d0 https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/11/29/why-i... I ought to provide a better link but this was happening BEFORE covid, trump's embargos like against SMIC, biden's embargos. China's ongoing collapse. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-s-epic-battle-with-capital-flows-is-more-intense-than-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-s-e... Mind you, San Fran will always exist. Just as Detroit still exists.