4 ms·

So rather than making China dependent on a U.S. supply chain, clearly the USG should block products and motivate China to spend billions to develop their own na

So rather than making China dependent on a U.S. supply chain, clearly the USG should block products and motivate China to spend billions to develop their own native chip design and manufacturing. Good thing they don't know how to make stuff. Any bets on how long until Chinese chips are the cutting edge on the planet?

ikekkdcjkfke 3y ago
Considering everyone else is trying to catch up to nvidia it would be hard, but these players don't play by any rules..
- dataking 3y ago
  we all play by the rules of physics and nowhere is that more evident than in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing ;-)
  - HenryBemis 3y ago
    I think the father implied that "they don't play by the rules" = they will try to hack/steal secrets instead of completing their own race to the betterment of technology. There was a hack on 23andme.. if I was China/Russia, and it would be me hacking 23andme then I would have a wealth of information about children out of wedlock (blackmail), sick people (bribing), etc.
    - DeathArrow 3y ago
      >I think the father implied that "they don't play by the rules" = they will try to hack/steal secrets instead of completing their own race to the betterment of technology. And US never stole secrets?
    - ben_w 3y ago
      > I would have a wealth of information about children out of wedlock (blackmail) And then there's a moment of cultural confusion as the younger generation of parents looks at the person attempting blackmail and says "Correct, we couldn't afford the wedding. Were you offering to pay for one?"
Phoenix12052023 3y ago
IMO, the really interesting thing are what becomes of the Taiwanese industry as the political situation (they have an election next year) develops. TSMC has applied for-and has received-an exemption from US prohibitions, as has Samsung up in South Korea. That speaks volumes.
DeathArrow 3y ago
>Any bets on how long until Chinese chips are the cutting edge on the planet? Right now SMIC can produce 5 nm and 7 nm chips. That means about 5 years difference. I guess they can catch up in a decade if they invest enough resources, and will. Having a domestic chip industry will be a huge win for China. Not only the chips will be much cheaper for them but they can export a ton while undercutting the competition. They will try to eat TSM, Samsung, Intel, AMD pies.
- t324oi234j3434 3y ago
  I'd bet even faster. The West pretends that Taiwan is another country with another totally alien set of people who hate the mainland. However, that is not really the case. I imagine it's fairly easy to poach TSMC personnel, who well now realize that Taiwanese semi-conductor industry is going to be ruined by American meddling in the coming decade (much like they did of Japan's).
  - DeathArrow 3y ago
    > I imagine it's fairly easy to poach TSMC personnel They already did that. They offered some TSMC engineers much better payment and they built 5nm and 7nm fab processes for SMIC using DUV instead of EUV. :) To add insult to the injury, Huawei released their Kirin 9000s CPU during US secretary of commerce visit in China.
  - maxglute 3y ago
    I think TW banned semi workers from working in PRC for triple pay, after banning TW recruiters from helping PRC poach TW workers didn't work. Meanwhile, TW semi workers still underpaid and overworked.
    - hunglee2 3y ago
      this is true, there is an 'export restriction' for TW workers going to the mainland in certain industries, especially SC
- tommiegannert 3y ago

ikekkdcjkfke 3y ago

Considering everyone else is trying to catch up to nvidia it would be hard, but these players don't play by any rules..

dataking 3y ago
we all play by the rules of physics and nowhere is that more evident than in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing ;-)
- HenryBemis 3y ago
  I think the father implied that "they don't play by the rules" = they will try to hack/steal secrets instead of completing their own race to the betterment of technology. There was a hack on 23andme.. if I was China/Russia, and it would be me hacking 23andme then I would have a wealth of information about children out of wedlock (blackmail), sick people (bribing), etc.
  - DeathArrow 3y ago
    >I think the father implied that "they don't play by the rules" = they will try to hack/steal secrets instead of completing their own race to the betterment of technology. And US never stole secrets?
  - ben_w 3y ago
    > I would have a wealth of information about children out of wedlock (blackmail) And then there's a moment of cultural confusion as the younger generation of parents looks at the person attempting blackmail and says "Correct, we couldn't afford the wedding. Were you offering to pay for one?"

Phoenix12052023 3y ago

IMO, the really interesting thing are what becomes of the Taiwanese industry as the political situation (they have an election next year) develops. TSMC has applied for-and has received-an exemption from US prohibitions, as has Samsung up in South Korea. That speaks volumes.

DeathArrow 3y ago

>Any bets on how long until Chinese chips are the cutting edge on the planet? Right now SMIC can produce 5 nm and 7 nm chips. That means about 5 years difference. I guess they can catch up in a decade if they invest enough resources, and will. Having a domestic chip industry will be a huge win for China. Not only the chips will be much cheaper for them but they can export a ton while undercutting the competition. They will try to eat TSM, Samsung, Intel, AMD pies.

t324oi234j3434 3y ago
I'd bet even faster. The West pretends that Taiwan is another country with another totally alien set of people who hate the mainland. However, that is not really the case. I imagine it's fairly easy to poach TSMC personnel, who well now realize that Taiwanese semi-conductor industry is going to be ruined by American meddling in the coming decade (much like they did of Japan's).
- DeathArrow 3y ago
  > I imagine it's fairly easy to poach TSMC personnel They already did that. They offered some TSMC engineers much better payment and they built 5nm and 7nm fab processes for SMIC using DUV instead of EUV. :) To add insult to the injury, Huawei released their Kirin 9000s CPU during US secretary of commerce visit in China.
- maxglute 3y ago
  I think TW banned semi workers from working in PRC for triple pay, after banning TW recruiters from helping PRC poach TW workers didn't work. Meanwhile, TW semi workers still underpaid and overworked.
  - hunglee2 3y ago
    this is true, there is an 'export restriction' for TW workers going to the mainland in certain industries, especially SC
tommiegannert 3y ago