> If we call the difference between GPT-3 and GPT4 1x, then I would expect to see a 2x-5x improvement in LLM capability within the next few years it's interest

> If we call the difference between GPT-3 and GPT4 1x, then I would expect to see a 2x-5x improvement in LLM capability within the next few years it's interesting this is probably the assumption of many people leading to the current hype cycle. But in reality it's not how progress tends to happen which is a much more punctuated equilibrium type phenomenon. My guess is it's actually quite likely that most of the progress will be made on maturing things and underlying capability will plateau.