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Error bars (either confidence interval or standard deviations) are of little use because they do not tell you how the probability is distributed within the conf
by lr1970 3y ago
Error bars (either confidence interval or standard deviations) are of little use because they do not tell you how the probability is distributed within the confidence interval band. The holy grail of forecasting is the Probabilistic Forecast that predicts the entire posterior distribution so that you can sample from it generating scenarios or realizations of the underlying random process.
- americast 3y agoWhile I agree, we can always have multiple overlapping error bars to understand how the probability is distributed. I am not sure how a probabilistic forecast method is able to perform this better because the confidence interval is always generated through sampling in either situation. Though probabilistic forecasting methods may have a Bayesian approach, it is Monte Carlo sampling that helps generate the confidence intervals. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong! Thanks :)