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There are ways of scoring forecasts that reward accurate-and-certain forecasts in a manner where it's provably optimal to provide the most accurate estimates fo
by PeterisP 3y ago
There are ways of scoring forecasts that reward accurate-and-certain forecasts in a manner where it's provably optimal to provide the most accurate estimates for your (un)certainty as you can.
- bo1024 3y agoYes, of course. I don't see that as very related to my point. For example, consider how 538 or The Economist predict elections. They might claim they'll use squared error or log score, but when it comes down to a big mistake, they'll blame it on factors outside their models.
- eru 3y agoWell, but at least 538 has a reputation to defend as an accurate forecaster. So they have some skin in the game. (Of course, that's not as good as betting money.)