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The interesting example in this article is nowcasting! The art of forecasting the present or past while you're waiting for data to come in. It's sloppy science
by datadrivenangel 3y ago
The interesting example in this article is nowcasting! The art of forecasting the present or past while you're waiting for data to come in.
It's sloppy science / statistics to not haven error ranges.
- RandomLensman 3y agoNot easy to always say what the benefit is: if you present in-model uncertainty from a stochastic model that might still say nothing about an estimation error vs the actual process. For forecasting to show actual uncertainty you need to be in a quite luxurious position to know the data generating process. You could try to fudge it with a lot of historical data where available - but still...
- aidenn0 3y agoMakes sense that such a thing would exist, though it renders less funny my joke: "I'm almost clairvoyant; I can predict things shortly after they happen"