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I always have loved this idea, but people were trying this in the “cleantech boom” (~2008-10) and all failed. Why didn’t it work back then and what’s different

by gumby 3y ago

I always have loved this idea, but people were trying this in the “cleantech boom” (~2008-10) and all failed. Why didn’t it work back then and what’s different today?

laidoffamazon 3y ago
Solar power and batteries are significantly cheaper now compared to then because of a boom in Chinese PV manufacturing, and thanks to Joe Biden are facing stiff competition from American PV and battery manufacturing in addition to subsidies. for American deployment. This particular deployment in Indonesia is a knock-on side effect of how cheap it's getting for everyone!
- gumby 3y ago
  But back then PV cost the same for everyone: fixed terrestrial, tracker, floating, etc. This is true today: in both cases everybody is buying the same panels. The argument for floating is and was: available, generally unshadowed land, already flat, with power connection often already there, and lower deployment. So what’s different now? I’d love for this to succeed.
  - conductr 3y ago
    PV costs were same for all but may have been higher than alternative energy sources and that shift has been occurring more recently. I’d also guess that shear will to think outside the box has increased. We’ve seen some things the last 15 years when it comes to the actual effects of climate change. The 15 years prior to that the climate change story could still be denied (by some) and I’d argue that now we’ve all seen and felt it and it’s pretty undeniable (without some bias).
  - galaxyLogic 3y ago
    > PV cost the same for everyone PV now costs less for everyone. That can and seems to make the difference in whether industrial scale deployment is cheap enough for commercial entities to invest. Or maybe this was just a novel although simple idea: Use the pool at powerplants to put the cells there. Maybe powerplants didn't think of it because they were opposed to solar ideologically.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
Which ones failed? Wikipedia lists early deployments and the ramp up of production seems to mirror other solar uptake suggesting the early ones proved the concept enough to get the next generation built. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar#History
mgraupner 3y ago
Cost of Solar per Watt went down significantly since then: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010..latesthttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010...
timerol 3y ago
Solar has become so cheap that the bottleneck is the interconnection queue - utilites are overwhelmed by the amount of modelling that they have to do to ensure the stability and capacity of the grid with the addition of more renewables. (There are a number of ways that they make this harder for themselves. These processes are very much not built for intermittency.) Hydropower plants are already permitted and connected generators. They are allowed to produce energy for sale onto the grid. From the utility's perspective, adding solar to a hydropower plant is the same as if there was a year with extra rainfall - the maximum (and reserve) power limits will still be adhered to, but more total energy will come from that single source. (Note that solar on the ground right next to the hydropower plant would have the same benefits without the additional costs of floating, but often hydropower plants are built in geographies that are more challenging for ground-mounted solar - they're either extremely hilly or built out.)

by gumby 3y ago

I always have loved this idea, but people were trying this in the “cleantech boom” (~2008-10) and all failed. Why didn’t it work back then and what’s different today?

laidoffamazon 3y ago

Solar power and batteries are significantly cheaper now compared to then because of a boom in Chinese PV manufacturing, and thanks to Joe Biden are facing stiff competition from American PV and battery manufacturing in addition to subsidies. for American deployment. This particular deployment in Indonesia is a knock-on side effect of how cheap it's getting for everyone!

gumby 3y ago
But back then PV cost the same for everyone: fixed terrestrial, tracker, floating, etc. This is true today: in both cases everybody is buying the same panels. The argument for floating is and was: available, generally unshadowed land, already flat, with power connection often already there, and lower deployment. So what’s different now? I’d love for this to succeed.
- conductr 3y ago
  PV costs were same for all but may have been higher than alternative energy sources and that shift has been occurring more recently. I’d also guess that shear will to think outside the box has increased. We’ve seen some things the last 15 years when it comes to the actual effects of climate change. The 15 years prior to that the climate change story could still be denied (by some) and I’d argue that now we’ve all seen and felt it and it’s pretty undeniable (without some bias).
- galaxyLogic 3y ago
  > PV cost the same for everyone PV now costs less for everyone. That can and seems to make the difference in whether industrial scale deployment is cheap enough for commercial entities to invest. Or maybe this was just a novel although simple idea: Use the pool at powerplants to put the cells there. Maybe powerplants didn't think of it because they were opposed to solar ideologically.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago

Which ones failed? Wikipedia lists early deployments and the ramp up of production seems to mirror other solar uptake suggesting the early ones proved the concept enough to get the next generation built. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar#History

mgraupner 3y ago

Cost of Solar per Watt went down significantly since then: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010..latesthttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices?time=2010...

timerol 3y ago

Solar has become so cheap that the bottleneck is the interconnection queue - utilites are overwhelmed by the amount of modelling that they have to do to ensure the stability and capacity of the grid with the addition of more renewables. (There are a number of ways that they make this harder for themselves. These processes are very much not built for intermittency.) Hydropower plants are already permitted and connected generators. They are allowed to produce energy for sale onto the grid. From the utility's perspective, adding solar to a hydropower plant is the same as if there was a year with extra rainfall - the maximum (and reserve) power limits will still be adhered to, but more total energy will come from that single source. (Note that solar on the ground right next to the hydropower plant would have the same benefits without the additional costs of floating, but often hydropower plants are built in geographies that are more challenging for ground-mounted solar - they're either extremely hilly or built out.)