Yes, it depends on those factors. One other factor is what would have happened at his old job. I have a friend who went from one big tech company to another was

Yes, it depends on those factors. One other factor is what would have happened at his old job. I have a friend who went from one big tech company to another was then laid off recently. There's a good chance the result would have been the same either way, since the first company cut a lot as well. One factor that keeps people at a company is the knowledge that, all things equal, last hired is first fired. It's not hard and fast, but you tend to have fewer allies at a company you just joined, making you more susceptible. When someone decides to leave one company and join a new one, they know that they're giving up this advantage.