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I don't see debt being mentioned and I wonder how much economic activity is shuffling debt around e.g. if someone buys a car with credit but can't keep up with

I don't see debt being mentioned and I wonder how much economic activity is shuffling debt around e.g. if someone buys a car with credit but can't keep up with payments so has to sell it at a loss, it probably looks great on economic dashboards - two cars have been sold! In real life, it really sucked though. A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. I fear that in a couple of years time, the Fed might discover Dave's spreadsheet included December twice or something.

dragonwriter 3y ago
> A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. They aren't revised any more often than normal, nor are the revisions large. > It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. The aspects if sentiment that historically vary closely with conditions (e.g., the current conditions portion of consumer confidence) are as consistent with recent good news as they have been with econonic news historically. The future expectations portion of consumer confidence, and aggregate “sentiment” measures that don't break out components, may seem inconsistent with current news, but that's also not historically unusual.
- Fluorescence 3y ago
  Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The UK revision moved from the worst performing economy of the G7 with a shrinking economy to a growing economy. German revisions reclassified it's economy as in recession.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The article and discussion are about sentiment about, and behavior and general conditions in, the US economy, so that seems to be a non-sequitur.
    - Fluorescence 3y ago
      Well my sequitor was about economic numbers in general.

dragonwriter 3y ago

> A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. They aren't revised any more often than normal, nor are the revisions large. > It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. The aspects if sentiment that historically vary closely with conditions (e.g., the current conditions portion of consumer confidence) are as consistent with recent good news as they have been with econonic news historically. The future expectations portion of consumer confidence, and aggregate “sentiment” measures that don't break out components, may seem inconsistent with current news, but that's also not historically unusual.

Fluorescence 3y ago
Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The UK revision moved from the worst performing economy of the G7 with a shrinking economy to a growing economy. German revisions reclassified it's economy as in recession.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The article and discussion are about sentiment about, and behavior and general conditions in, the US economy, so that seems to be a non-sequitur.
  - Fluorescence 3y ago
    Well my sequitor was about economic numbers in general.