3 ms·

Indeed. The idea of an economic downtown almost seems to be one of sentiment rather than any data. Wages are up above inflation. Asset prices are strong. Job m

Indeed. The idea of an economic downtown almost seems to be one of sentiment rather than any data. Wages are up above inflation. Asset prices are strong. Job market is strong. Inflation is dropping. Consumer spending is strong. Other than inflation currently being a bit above target, which numbers are people unhappy about?

Whoppertime 3y ago
The Month over Month inflation may be low, but since 2020 it's been 20%, and suffice to say a majority of the working population has not gotten a 20% wage increase since then
- pie420 3y ago
  Everyone I know who has changed jobs has gotten 30%+ raises in my circle. Very few people I know still work where they worked in 2019. The few that do are either very poor, or very wealthy. In the modern economy, you don't get raises anymore, you get a new job every 2-3 years. Anyone who is upset that they haven't gotten raises to keep up with inflation has only themselves to blame.
Fluorescence 3y ago
I don't see debt being mentioned and I wonder how much economic activity is shuffling debt around e.g. if someone buys a car with credit but can't keep up with payments so has to sell it at a loss, it probably looks great on economic dashboards - two cars have been sold! In real life, it really sucked though. A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. I fear that in a couple of years time, the Fed might discover Dave's spreadsheet included December twice or something.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. They aren't revised any more often than normal, nor are the revisions large. > It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. The aspects if sentiment that historically vary closely with conditions (e.g., the current conditions portion of consumer confidence) are as consistent with recent good news as they have been with econonic news historically. The future expectations portion of consumer confidence, and aggregate “sentiment” measures that don't break out components, may seem inconsistent with current news, but that's also not historically unusual.
  - Fluorescence 3y ago
    Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The UK revision moved from the worst performing economy of the G7 with a shrinking economy to a growing economy. German revisions reclassified it's economy as in recession.
    - dragonwriter 3y ago
      > Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The article and discussion are about sentiment about, and behavior and general conditions in, the US economy, so that seems to be a non-sequitur.
      - Fluorescence 3y ago
        Well my sequitor was about economic numbers in general.
battery_glasses 3y ago
People are unhappy about housing. If you own a house with a fixed rate mortgage then inflation will have a heavily muted effect on your personal financial situation since your (most likely) largest expense isn't effected. However, people look around and see that they can't afford to move to a different house of similar size/quality because prices and interest rates are so high. And they definitely can't afford to move out of that starter house into something with an extra bedroom so they can start a family or take care of an aging parent. This creates a deep sense of instability and the sensation that you are stuck where you are, and people generally don't like feeling unstable or stuck. I truly believe 99% of the economic woe in America can be traced back to the lack of housing.
zlg_codes 3y ago
Where is the job market strong and what opportunities are on offer? I'm in Washington and I see no growth or opportunity around here. Doesn't matter if we have 10000 more jobs if they suck.
CapstanRoller 3y ago
Wages may have risen on the low end, but it's really difficult to find a job in many professions and the pay has dropped substantially. My LinkedIn feed is full of unemployed engineers, recruiters, etc. Layoffs are also continuing, but are no longer big enough to make the news. The "recruitinghell" subreddit highlights many of these problems.

Whoppertime 3y ago

The Month over Month inflation may be low, but since 2020 it's been 20%, and suffice to say a majority of the working population has not gotten a 20% wage increase since then

pie420 3y ago
Everyone I know who has changed jobs has gotten 30%+ raises in my circle. Very few people I know still work where they worked in 2019. The few that do are either very poor, or very wealthy. In the modern economy, you don't get raises anymore, you get a new job every 2-3 years. Anyone who is upset that they haven't gotten raises to keep up with inflation has only themselves to blame.

Fluorescence 3y ago

I don't see debt being mentioned and I wonder how much economic activity is shuffling debt around e.g. if someone buys a car with credit but can't keep up with payments so has to sell it at a loss, it probably looks great on economic dashboards - two cars have been sold! In real life, it really sucked though. A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. I fear that in a couple of years time, the Fed might discover Dave's spreadsheet included December twice or something.

dragonwriter 3y ago
> A side note - I am a little wary at how frequently economic figures have been revised recently. They aren't revised any more often than normal, nor are the revisions large. > It makes suspicious when people are surprised at good news that seems to go against sentiment. The aspects if sentiment that historically vary closely with conditions (e.g., the current conditions portion of consumer confidence) are as consistent with recent good news as they have been with econonic news historically. The future expectations portion of consumer confidence, and aggregate “sentiment” measures that don't break out components, may seem inconsistent with current news, but that's also not historically unusual.
- Fluorescence 3y ago
  Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The UK revision moved from the worst performing economy of the G7 with a shrinking economy to a growing economy. German revisions reclassified it's economy as in recession.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    > Recent UK and German revisions radically changed the economic narratives. The article and discussion are about sentiment about, and behavior and general conditions in, the US economy, so that seems to be a non-sequitur.
    - Fluorescence 3y ago
      Well my sequitor was about economic numbers in general.

battery_glasses 3y ago

People are unhappy about housing. If you own a house with a fixed rate mortgage then inflation will have a heavily muted effect on your personal financial situation since your (most likely) largest expense isn't effected. However, people look around and see that they can't afford to move to a different house of similar size/quality because prices and interest rates are so high. And they definitely can't afford to move out of that starter house into something with an extra bedroom so they can start a family or take care of an aging parent. This creates a deep sense of instability and the sensation that you are stuck where you are, and people generally don't like feeling unstable or stuck. I truly believe 99% of the economic woe in America can be traced back to the lack of housing.

zlg_codes 3y ago

Where is the job market strong and what opportunities are on offer? I'm in Washington and I see no growth or opportunity around here. Doesn't matter if we have 10000 more jobs if they suck.

CapstanRoller 3y ago

Wages may have risen on the low end, but it's really difficult to find a job in many professions and the pay has dropped substantially. My LinkedIn feed is full of unemployed engineers, recruiters, etc. Layoffs are also continuing, but are no longer big enough to make the news. The "recruitinghell" subreddit highlights many of these problems.