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What I took from it is that if you're a startup that got its funding during a recession (meaning there's lots of laid-off people floating around), you get to co

What I took from it is that if you're a startup that got its funding during a recession (meaning there's lots of laid-off people floating around), you get to collect very talented, skilled R&D people. Hence if that's the situation for your startup you would say that being a recession start up is great. I think that's the specific conclusion I could get from it, the paper is very heavy and there's tons of caveats because every recession is different. But yes, if you are good/lucky enough to start a start up during a recession that has reduced labor demand, then you get to pick from a very talented pool. Currently, I'm not sure if we had a recession last year, the labor market stayed strong despite the market correction and very public layoffs. I guess when everyone and their mother is calling for a recession it's just not going to happen? Yields are uninverting, historically I believe this is a strong signal of a coming recession, and the markets are calling for interest rates to start getting cut in March of next year. So I guess we'll see. The other question that I found very interesting is: Do start ups born in a recession come to be because the idea and quality has to be very good? Or do they come to be because above-average confident people are the only ones willing to put their ideas out there? Or a combination of both?

bobthepanda 3y ago
Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions, so the saying goes. That being said overall market movements take a while to shake out; the mortgage bubble was first pointed out as early as 2006. People have been calling out China’s property bubble since the 2010s. For tech at least I get the impression that the labor market out there is tough.
- eropple 3y ago
  > For tech at least I get the impression that the labor market out there is tough. Anedcotes of course, but what I hear is that maybe the Bay Area tech labor market is tough - but there's a lot of country that isn't the SFBA and nobody I know who isn't bent on working for a FAANG is having trouble finding work.
  - danjac 3y ago
    From my perspective (working in Europe) this year has been exceptionally tough. I'm working rn but I always keep options open, e.g. staying in contact with recruiters and looking at job postings. I'll apply for a job if it's a good fit. Overall far fewer opportunities and salaries are down, and more stringent requirements across the board. Whereas before I would get a good response for an application - at least to the technical test or interview stage - now I just get rejections or crickets. I suspect many jobs are fake or they already have the candidate lined up. I'm not desperate so I haven't been trying especially hard, but I can imagine it's not a good time to be looking for work in a hurry.
    - n_ary 3y ago
      Here in my side of the Europe, employer is having really difficult time finding any candidates for over 3 years. So last month they approved to try and hire on other countries in EU for these openings(they have presence in multiple EU nations and teams are distributed). Infact the market is so good, that people living few blocks from the office premises(multiple locations) immediately decline once HR mentions that they need to come to office at least once every 2-3 weeks. Then we have some junior interviews where they are asking more than what our mid and some new seniors make and 100% WFH, while most of us are in office most days(heck I mentioned in some other thread a while ago that I even commute 2h each way to/from work, cumulative 4h on office days). I think, market is mostly volatile now and some are enjoying it while the others are suffering. Also, let me not start the rant about now 99% of startups and SME now posts for only Senior Engineer/SWE with pay of juniors from 5 years ago or something, no wonder people won't apply.
      - danjac 3y ago
        Right, I'm not going to apply for office jobs anyway (I don't live near a tech hub, for personal reasons I can't move, there are almost no tech jobs locally, and I'm not going to spend hours commuting just to do Zoom calls from the office) and nor will I accept another pay cut -I had to take a lower-paying job earlier in the year because there were no other options. I don't know if your company genuinely needs be office-only or you just have management who thinks they need to be office-only, but it sounds like there are applicants you are leaving on the table. So yes, there are jobs, but not ones that I would apply for. Not being picky, but just for practical reasons. Even so, taking that into account, the job market is pretty terrible this year.
dehrmann 3y ago
> meaning there's lots of laid-off people floating around Also that cautious VCs saw promise with the company, so it's better people and a better business.

bobthepanda 3y ago

Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions, so the saying goes. That being said overall market movements take a while to shake out; the mortgage bubble was first pointed out as early as 2006. People have been calling out China’s property bubble since the 2010s. For tech at least I get the impression that the labor market out there is tough.

eropple 3y ago
> For tech at least I get the impression that the labor market out there is tough. Anedcotes of course, but what I hear is that maybe the Bay Area tech labor market is tough - but there's a lot of country that isn't the SFBA and nobody I know who isn't bent on working for a FAANG is having trouble finding work.
- danjac 3y ago
  From my perspective (working in Europe) this year has been exceptionally tough. I'm working rn but I always keep options open, e.g. staying in contact with recruiters and looking at job postings. I'll apply for a job if it's a good fit. Overall far fewer opportunities and salaries are down, and more stringent requirements across the board. Whereas before I would get a good response for an application - at least to the technical test or interview stage - now I just get rejections or crickets. I suspect many jobs are fake or they already have the candidate lined up. I'm not desperate so I haven't been trying especially hard, but I can imagine it's not a good time to be looking for work in a hurry.
  - n_ary 3y ago
    Here in my side of the Europe, employer is having really difficult time finding any candidates for over 3 years. So last month they approved to try and hire on other countries in EU for these openings(they have presence in multiple EU nations and teams are distributed). Infact the market is so good, that people living few blocks from the office premises(multiple locations) immediately decline once HR mentions that they need to come to office at least once every 2-3 weeks. Then we have some junior interviews where they are asking more than what our mid and some new seniors make and 100% WFH, while most of us are in office most days(heck I mentioned in some other thread a while ago that I even commute 2h each way to/from work, cumulative 4h on office days). I think, market is mostly volatile now and some are enjoying it while the others are suffering. Also, let me not start the rant about now 99% of startups and SME now posts for only Senior Engineer/SWE with pay of juniors from 5 years ago or something, no wonder people won't apply.
    - danjac 3y ago
      Right, I'm not going to apply for office jobs anyway (I don't live near a tech hub, for personal reasons I can't move, there are almost no tech jobs locally, and I'm not going to spend hours commuting just to do Zoom calls from the office) and nor will I accept another pay cut -I had to take a lower-paying job earlier in the year because there were no other options. I don't know if your company genuinely needs be office-only or you just have management who thinks they need to be office-only, but it sounds like there are applicants you are leaving on the table. So yes, there are jobs, but not ones that I would apply for. Not being picky, but just for practical reasons. Even so, taking that into account, the job market is pretty terrible this year.

dehrmann 3y ago

> meaning there's lots of laid-off people floating around Also that cautious VCs saw promise with the company, so it's better people and a better business.