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Hydrogen fueled vehicles may not be viable right now. But there's one thing that makes me believe they will be in the future. Long-haul trucking with BEV seems

by ephbit 3y ago

Hydrogen fueled vehicles may not be viable right now. But there's one thing that makes me believe they will be in the future. Long-haul trucking with BEV seems rather unlikely to me and the one renewables powered alternative that looks scalable (across different aspects) to me is FCEV trucks fueled with H2 or methanol or some other hydrogen carrier. (Amogy as a company develops such tech). As soon as there's sufficient gas stations where trucks can refill H2/Methanol/.. hydrogen powered FCEV cars may stop appearing like a non-solution. I think for all countries that have large seasonal fluctuations in wind/PV electricity generation, hydrogen will play an important role in both seasonal storage of domestic electricity generation as well as for importing energy (in the form of ammonia) from other regions. So the energy backbones of these countries will not solely rely upon the electric grid but also on a H2 distribution system. As soon as this is available, all sorts of uses of H2 will become viable.

panick21_ 3y ago
I think there a number of issues there. Electric trucks are very efficient and cheaper to operate. They can do a majority of all trucking routes just fine. Companies will primary invest in those routes for electrification. More CO2 reduction. Very long-haul style operations will stay on gas for much longer. Electric truck operation will also be much cheaper then hydrogen operation. The country most invested in Hydrogen is Japan, and in Japan, electric trucks are clearly superior. In Europe, a large potential market for Hydrogen trucks, the way the regulations are in terms of rest, that covers electric trucks weaknesses. Another issue with your theory is that the truck stop that trucks would use are not really the same in form and function as what normal traveling people use for the most part. They will not be in locations where its viable for lots of commuters to go to. Specially because all short-hall distribution will clearly go electric, not hydrogen. And its yet to be shown that anybody is actually willing to make the massive investments in hydrogen trucking station, and that there will be hydrogen distribution available. Local generation is very unlikely for a truck stop. So it sound cool in theory but in practice it just doesn't really line up. Hydrogen trucks maybe make sense in a few long-haul niche application. And even if, we somehow had hydrogen fuel stations. In practice they are simply worse cars then electric cars. They are far, far more complex to build, and thus cost more to build. They have far far more failure points. For the majority of people who can charge at home, or at work, its just a far worse experience. For long distance travel, supercharging is already really good and its getting better rapidly. Most people make longer breaks then necessary for charging already. The few people who claim they do like 10h without stopping are the extreme exception of the extreme exception. > I think for all countries that have large seasonal fluctuations in wind/PV electricity generation, hydrogen will play an important role in both seasonal storage of domestic electricity generation as well as for importing energy (in the form of ammonia) from other regions. I think seasonal storage makes little sense economically. If your hydrogen production relies on intermittent power availability its going to have really bad uptime and is gone be really bad economically. At the same time batteries are getting better and more economical at storage. With different battery tech for 4h, 8-12h and 2-3d storage. Importing energy threw high voltage DC lines makes more sense then transporting hydrogen derivatives. Its far cheaper unless you are going across an ocean. I absolutely do not believe in the vision that hydrogen (derivatives) will be like oil where a few regions have a shit-ton of production and then we ship it all over the world. Most nations have enough energy option to figure out their own grid and balance out with their immediate neighbour.
- ephbit 3y ago
  > Electric trucks are very efficient and cheaper to operate. They can do a majority of all trucking routes just fine. Agree. Yet, currently of the daily 800,000 trucks (> 7.5 t) which are transporting goods in Germany, less than 500 are BEVs (including hybrids). BEV trucks cost ~ 3x as much as an ordinary diesel truck. So right now, they're basically irrelevant. > In Europe, a large potential market for Hydrogen trucks, the way the regulations are in terms of rest, that covers electric trucks weaknesses. Agree, mandatory resting time for the drivers automatically gives much time for charging. But not all stops are hours long. According to my source, there's currently not one mega charger in Germany that allows trucks to charge enough during a 45 min break, so that they can actually drive on. According to the same source, several companies that tried to build a charging infrastructure with such mega chargers were turned down by the power utilities because the distribution network apparently isn't capable of handling that much load. Upgrading the grid accordingly is said to take 5-10 years. I think countries with relatively high BEV share of passenger vehicle fleet will already face a decent challenge with getting the grid to charge these cars. Charging hundreds of thousands of semis will be an even greater challenge. This is where fuels like H2/methanol/ammonia will have their place I think, as refuelling with these scales much easier than recharging BEVs. > Another issue with your theory is that the truck stop that trucks would use are not really the same in form and function as what normal traveling people use for the most part. Many truck stops along highways offer both, areas for trucks as well as cars. I see no reason, why they wouldn't be combined in many cases. A hydrogen refuelling station for trucks that just opened can also be used by cars: https://www.now-gmbh.de/en/news/pressreleases/opening-of-a-hydrogen-refuelling-station-for-heavy-duty-vehilces-in-neumuenster/ https://www.now-gmbh.de/en/news/pressreleases/opening-of-a-h... > And its yet to be shown that anybody is actually willing to make the massive investments in hydrogen trucking station, and that there will be hydrogen distribution available. Local generation is very unlikely for a truck stop. Local generation doesn't exist right now. But as renewable share of electricity grows larger and as more and more old power plants (coal/gas) go offline, they offer perfect sites to (relatively) locally produce hydrogen from excess renewable electricity. > And even if, we somehow had hydrogen fuel stations. In practice they are simply worse cars then electric cars. They are far, far more complex to build, and thus cost more to build. They have far far more failure points. For the majority of people who can charge at home, or at work, its just a far worse experience. For long distance travel, supercharging is already really good and its getting better rapidly. Most people make longer breaks then necessary for charging already. Again, I (partially) agree. Yes, hydrogen/derivatives add complexity compared to a BEV. Supercharging works, yes. But the question is, whether it will be practical to scale it to a vehicle fleet with a majority of BEV. I doubt it. > I think seasonal storage makes little sense economically. If your hydrogen production relies on intermittent power availability its going to have really bad uptime and is gone be really bad economically. Well, if there's sustained renewable electricty generation surpluses over say a week then that is already a magnitude that cannot be met with pumped hydro or batteries (EV/home). Take an average grid throughput of 70 GW in Germany. Over 7 days that's 11,760 GWh. Now let's say due to renewables generating massively, you have a surplus of just 20 %. That's 2,352 GWh. You'd need ~ 30,000,000 BEV cars with a 80 kWh battery each to store all this amount of electricity, and they'd all need to be charged 100 %. Storing all/most of that in batteries doesn't sound feasible in the near future to me. I think the way this may develop is: when the electricity cannot be consumed otherwise locally and the grid doesn't allow for all of it to be transmitted to neighbouring countries (power lines are regularly maxed out already and more capacity is being added rather slowly), then the price of a KWh will drop to zero or negative in the price zone where it's being generated. At some point, prices will be low enough to make even intermittent electrolysis economically feasible, I think. Just a matter of time. What else are you going to do with lots of PV in summer when all cars and home batteries are charged and the home aircon is drawing its 2 kW and there's 15 kW of PV on the roof of millions of homes? Just switch off the PV? > Importing energy threw high voltage DC lines makes more sense then transporting hydrogen derivatives. Its far cheaper unless you are going across an ocean. It may be cheaper to transport electricity via HVDC per km per kWh, but with an additional HVDC line connecting two distant points you get additional constraints (because demand + charging always has to equal supply + discharching) and increased strain on the grid portions surrounding these points. Transporting electricity/energy between the same points by generating H2/ammonia/methanol, then shipping it over the ocean and then using it at the destination on the other hand does _not_ lead to another coupling of demand and supply. Instead it creates a buffer. And I think this buffering feature which isn't taken into account in the simple $/km*kWh is a feature that is only going to get more valuable over time, at least over the coming decades. > I absolutely do not believe in the vision that hydrogen (derivatives) will be like oil where a few regions have a shit-ton of production and then we ship it all over the world. There are actually many such projects being built/devoloped right now. If you search for hydrogen/electrolysis projects on the web, you'll find that many projects have ammonia generation as a component. https://www.world-energy.org/article/14732.html https://www.world-energy.org/article/14732.html ("Gigawatt-Scale: the World's 13 Largest Green-Hydrogen Projects") https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Renewable_Energy_Hub https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Renewable_Energy_Hub https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-ag/2022-03-18-import-of-green-enery-rwe-builds-ammonia-terminal-in-brunsbuettel/ https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-ag/2022-03-18-import-of-gre... https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-kizad-announces-plans-green-ammonia-plant-statement-2021-05-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-kizad-a... https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/the-worlds-first-clean-ammonia-powered-container-ship/ https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/the-worlds-first-cle... While obviously many companies that are tied to fossil fuel and the "legacy" non-renewable chemical industry are pushing such projects to keep their feet in the door that is in my opinion just one factor. The other being that chemical storage/transport of energy simply has its technical benefits compared to energy transport/storage via grid/batteries. > Most nations have enough energy option to figure out their own grid and balance out with their immediate neighbour. With lots of fossil generation that might be true now, but with increased renewable share there will be a growing need for storage/buffering, just a fact.

by ephbit 3y ago

panick21_ 3y ago

I think there a number of issues there. Electric trucks are very efficient and cheaper to operate. They can do a majority of all trucking routes just fine. Companies will primary invest in those routes for electrification. More CO2 reduction. Very long-haul style operations will stay on gas for much longer. Electric truck operation will also be much cheaper then hydrogen operation. The country most invested in Hydrogen is Japan, and in Japan, electric trucks are clearly superior. In Europe, a large potential market for Hydrogen trucks, the way the regulations are in terms of rest, that covers electric trucks weaknesses. Another issue with your theory is that the truck stop that trucks would use are not really the same in form and function as what normal traveling people use for the most part. They will not be in locations where its viable for lots of commuters to go to. Specially because all short-hall distribution will clearly go electric, not hydrogen. And its yet to be shown that anybody is actually willing to make the massive investments in hydrogen trucking station, and that there will be hydrogen distribution available. Local generation is very unlikely for a truck stop. So it sound cool in theory but in practice it just doesn't really line up. Hydrogen trucks maybe make sense in a few long-haul niche application. And even if, we somehow had hydrogen fuel stations. In practice they are simply worse cars then electric cars. They are far, far more complex to build, and thus cost more to build. They have far far more failure points. For the majority of people who can charge at home, or at work, its just a far worse experience. For long distance travel, supercharging is already really good and its getting better rapidly. Most people make longer breaks then necessary for charging already. The few people who claim they do like 10h without stopping are the extreme exception of the extreme exception. > I think for all countries that have large seasonal fluctuations in wind/PV electricity generation, hydrogen will play an important role in both seasonal storage of domestic electricity generation as well as for importing energy (in the form of ammonia) from other regions. I think seasonal storage makes little sense economically. If your hydrogen production relies on intermittent power availability its going to have really bad uptime and is gone be really bad economically. At the same time batteries are getting better and more economical at storage. With different battery tech for 4h, 8-12h and 2-3d storage. Importing energy threw high voltage DC lines makes more sense then transporting hydrogen derivatives. Its far cheaper unless you are going across an ocean. I absolutely do not believe in the vision that hydrogen (derivatives) will be like oil where a few regions have a shit-ton of production and then we ship it all over the world. Most nations have enough energy option to figure out their own grid and balance out with their immediate neighbour.

ephbit 3y ago
> Electric trucks are very efficient and cheaper to operate. They can do a majority of all trucking routes just fine. Agree. Yet, currently of the daily 800,000 trucks (> 7.5 t) which are transporting goods in Germany, less than 500 are BEVs (including hybrids). BEV trucks cost ~ 3x as much as an ordinary diesel truck. So right now, they're basically irrelevant. > In Europe, a large potential market for Hydrogen trucks, the way the regulations are in terms of rest, that covers electric trucks weaknesses. Agree, mandatory resting time for the drivers automatically gives much time for charging. But not all stops are hours long. According to my source, there's currently not one mega charger in Germany that allows trucks to charge enough during a 45 min break, so that they can actually drive on. According to the same source, several companies that tried to build a charging infrastructure with such mega chargers were turned down by the power utilities because the distribution network apparently isn't capable of handling that much load. Upgrading the grid accordingly is said to take 5-10 years. I think countries with relatively high BEV share of passenger vehicle fleet will already face a decent challenge with getting the grid to charge these cars. Charging hundreds of thousands of semis will be an even greater challenge. This is where fuels like H2/methanol/ammonia will have their place I think, as refuelling with these scales much easier than recharging BEVs. > Another issue with your theory is that the truck stop that trucks would use are not really the same in form and function as what normal traveling people use for the most part. Many truck stops along highways offer both, areas for trucks as well as cars. I see no reason, why they wouldn't be combined in many cases. A hydrogen refuelling station for trucks that just opened can also be used by cars: https://www.now-gmbh.de/en/news/pressreleases/opening-of-a-hydrogen-refuelling-station-for-heavy-duty-vehilces-in-neumuenster/ https://www.now-gmbh.de/en/news/pressreleases/opening-of-a-h... > And its yet to be shown that anybody is actually willing to make the massive investments in hydrogen trucking station, and that there will be hydrogen distribution available. Local generation is very unlikely for a truck stop. Local generation doesn't exist right now. But as renewable share of electricity grows larger and as more and more old power plants (coal/gas) go offline, they offer perfect sites to (relatively) locally produce hydrogen from excess renewable electricity. > And even if, we somehow had hydrogen fuel stations. In practice they are simply worse cars then electric cars. They are far, far more complex to build, and thus cost more to build. They have far far more failure points. For the majority of people who can charge at home, or at work, its just a far worse experience. For long distance travel, supercharging is already really good and its getting better rapidly. Most people make longer breaks then necessary for charging already. Again, I (partially) agree. Yes, hydrogen/derivatives add complexity compared to a BEV. Supercharging works, yes. But the question is, whether it will be practical to scale it to a vehicle fleet with a majority of BEV. I doubt it. > I think seasonal storage makes little sense economically. If your hydrogen production relies on intermittent power availability its going to have really bad uptime and is gone be really bad economically. Well, if there's sustained renewable electricty generation surpluses over say a week then that is already a magnitude that cannot be met with pumped hydro or batteries (EV/home). Take an average grid throughput of 70 GW in Germany. Over 7 days that's 11,760 GWh. Now let's say due to renewables generating massively, you have a surplus of just 20 %. That's 2,352 GWh. You'd need ~ 30,000,000 BEV cars with a 80 kWh battery each to store all this amount of electricity, and they'd all need to be charged 100 %. Storing all/most of that in batteries doesn't sound feasible in the near future to me. I think the way this may develop is: when the electricity cannot be consumed otherwise locally and the grid doesn't allow for all of it to be transmitted to neighbouring countries (power lines are regularly maxed out already and more capacity is being added rather slowly), then the price of a KWh will drop to zero or negative in the price zone where it's being generated. At some point, prices will be low enough to make even intermittent electrolysis economically feasible, I think. Just a matter of time. What else are you going to do with lots of PV in summer when all cars and home batteries are charged and the home aircon is drawing its 2 kW and there's 15 kW of PV on the roof of millions of homes? Just switch off the PV? > Importing energy threw high voltage DC lines makes more sense then transporting hydrogen derivatives. Its far cheaper unless you are going across an ocean. It may be cheaper to transport electricity via HVDC per km per kWh, but with an additional HVDC line connecting two distant points you get additional constraints (because demand + charging always has to equal supply + discharching) and increased strain on the grid portions surrounding these points. Transporting electricity/energy between the same points by generating H2/ammonia/methanol, then shipping it over the ocean and then using it at the destination on the other hand does _not_ lead to another coupling of demand and supply. Instead it creates a buffer. And I think this buffering feature which isn't taken into account in the simple $/km*kWh is a feature that is only going to get more valuable over time, at least over the coming decades. > I absolutely do not believe in the vision that hydrogen (derivatives) will be like oil where a few regions have a shit-ton of production and then we ship it all over the world. There are actually many such projects being built/devoloped right now. If you search for hydrogen/electrolysis projects on the web, you'll find that many projects have ammonia generation as a component. https://www.world-energy.org/article/14732.html https://www.world-energy.org/article/14732.html ("Gigawatt-Scale: the World's 13 Largest Green-Hydrogen Projects") https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Renewable_Energy_Hub https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Renewable_Energy_Hub https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-ag/2022-03-18-import-of-green-enery-rwe-builds-ammonia-terminal-in-brunsbuettel/ https://www.rwe.com/en/press/rwe-ag/2022-03-18-import-of-gre... https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-kizad-announces-plans-green-ammonia-plant-statement-2021-05-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-kizad-a... https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/the-worlds-first-clean-ammonia-powered-container-ship/ https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/the-worlds-first-cle... While obviously many companies that are tied to fossil fuel and the "legacy" non-renewable chemical industry are pushing such projects to keep their feet in the door that is in my opinion just one factor. The other being that chemical storage/transport of energy simply has its technical benefits compared to energy transport/storage via grid/batteries. > Most nations have enough energy option to figure out their own grid and balance out with their immediate neighbour. With lots of fossil generation that might be true now, but with increased renewable share there will be a growing need for storage/buffering, just a fact.