4 ms·

Germany bets its future on solar, wind and H2. That will be interesting experiment. Who will have the lower cost/kWh in the end?

dgellow 3y ago
Definitely not nuclear, it’s a great source of energy but really expensive, susceptible to temperature changes, requires well trained technicians. But Germany doesn’t really have a coherent plan. The country will continue to depend on nuclear from neighboring countries.
jansan 3y ago
H2 is a pie in the sky. Betting your future on this is pure insanity.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Green H2 is projected to get cheap enough that a combined cycle plant running as a base load source on green hydrogen would be economically superior to a new construction nuclear power plant. Of course, a 100% RE grid needn't operate any hydrogen plant in base load mode, only to fill in gaps not covered by direct use of solar, wind, and batteries. Very little H2 is actually needed to cover dunkelflauten; somewhat more might be useful for seasonal leveling.
the_third_wave 3y ago
As it stands now it will be a disastrous experiment which will (and already has) affect(ed) the rest of north-western Europe due to the interconnected nature of the electricity network. Electricity prices in the lower half of Sweden have risen dramatically due to this and also due to the fact that our own 'progressive/green' politicos took down half the nuclear generation capacity based on ideological reasoning. This poses a number of questions: - will these ideologically driven apparatchiks ever be held accountable in some way or will they just glide through the promotion circus and end up in cushy positions as ambassador in some warm country, in some UN organisation or as head of some NGO or (like Schroeder [1]) in the board of Gazprom or some similar organisation? - if Germany continues to de-industrialise due to a shortage of affordable power it will only be harder to reach that pie in the sky called the H₂-based economy - can this downward spiral be halted in some way? - how does a country's responsibility to help stabilise the European grid interact with another country's irresponsible experimentation with that stability? While the climate-apostles have boarded their private jets for yet another posh gathering the temperature has steadily dropped, the land is white and frozen and electricity prices have risen up to tenfold. Gas prices are still low but that does not help for those who listened to the apostles and replaced their gas-burning central heating for an electric heat pump. Solar does not help either when snow covers the panels which look out over a steely-gray snow-laden sky (source: I just looked out of the window) nor does wind (source: same the before). [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gerhard-schroeder-ukraine-gazprom-vladimir-putin-olaf-scholz-b2007898.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gerhard-schr...
- pfdietz 3y ago
  In a post-fossil fuel age, Germany is fucked energywise anyway compared to sun-drenched lower latitude countries. Unless nuclear in Germany can compete with solar in these places (competing with solar in Germany is not enough), German energy-intensive industries will operate at a great disadvantage.
  - ChemSpider 3y ago
    That is not correct. Once the energy cost goes below a certain level, it simply is no longer important compared to other factors like human resources, tax, infrastructure,... . Example: If the kWh/h costs 2 cent in Germany and only 1 cent in country X, that 100% difference would not matter, even for the most energy hungry industries.
    - pfdietz 3y ago
      Renewable energy has to get cheaper than it currently is before it becomes less of an economic input than fossil fuels currently are, for many industrial processes. For example, in production of iron renewable energy is competing against the raw chemical energy of coke.
  - the_third_wave 3y ago
    > In a post-fossil fuel age, Germany is fucked energywise anyway compared to sun-drenched lower latitude countries Assuming that the 'greens' either get the boot or a revelation which leads to new nuclear power stations being built in Germany I'd say they'll be more than fine at night while during the day they'll be able to use their installed and yet to be installed solar capacity in addition to their base load capacity. If and when the long-term energy storage problem is solved in an actually useable way [1] this can change but until that time any country or region intent on going 'fully renewable' will need a backup base load capacity for those times the sun and wind are absent. The former happens predictably every night and less predictably when the skies are overcast, the latter is as predictable as the weather. That base load can - assuming that 'non-renewable/non-nuclear' sources are out - be nuclear or (possibly pumped) hydroelectric. If the geography allows for (pumped) hydro and if the local 'greens' do not get laws (re)written to block the establishment of such infrastructure that would offer a long-term solution. Realistically speaking most places which allow for large-scale hydroelectric facilities probably already have them. This leaves nuclear power... which is expensive to establish but cheap to run. This combination of facts makes nuclear a good base load provider since running a nuclear power plant at or near maximum capacity does not add much to the expenditures but means the investment in building the plant and the related processing/waste storage facilities is recuperated sooner. Adding solar and wind to the mix will lead to an excess in power during the times these sources produce which will necessitate lowering the output of the nuclear plant which in turn means the investment in building it will take longer before the investment is recuperated. [1] something like 'e-fuels' using captured CO₂ and generated H₂ to create synthetic hydrocarbons - possible but extremely energy-inefficient - or some yet to be developed process
Kon5ole 3y ago
Solar with battery storage seems to have passed nuclear on price 4 years ago, when it was 2-3x more expensive than it is today and perhaps 10x more expensive than it will be before a new nuclear plant can be finished. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-sola... If that's true (and I see no reason to doubt it) Germany will make the cheapest energy in the EU by a country mile in just a few years. Unfortunately, they are bound by treaties to cover the cost of nuclear in other countries, so it won't help them as much as it could. The main problem for solar+storage is that centralized, government-controlled energy production is a huge cash cow for the state. In the EU, the price of electricity gives the governments extra income both when they sell electricity and when they tax the consumption. They can basically drain money from the population at will. I see this declaration as a step to keep things that way, it just makes no sense otherwise.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  I was told at one point that storage in Germany is inhibited because an entity wanting to operate grid-connected storage had to pay tax on the energy used to charge the storage (and then the output would be taxed again by whoever ultimately consumed it.)
- rich_sasha 3y ago
  How long do the batteries last? What happens after a week or cloudy winter weather? Battery storage typically seems to smooth out production over about 24hrs, not multiple days and certainly not seasons.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    Dunkelflauten (and seasonal leveling) are covered by use of an e-fuel like hydrogen. You can see this effect in action at the optimization/simulation site https://model.energy/ https://model.energy/ Go there, solve for Germany (2011 weather data, 2030 cost assumptions), then disable hydrogen and try again. The optimum cost nearly doubles.

dgellow 3y ago

Definitely not nuclear, it’s a great source of energy but really expensive, susceptible to temperature changes, requires well trained technicians. But Germany doesn’t really have a coherent plan. The country will continue to depend on nuclear from neighboring countries.

jansan 3y ago

H2 is a pie in the sky. Betting your future on this is pure insanity.

pfdietz 3y ago
Green H2 is projected to get cheap enough that a combined cycle plant running as a base load source on green hydrogen would be economically superior to a new construction nuclear power plant. Of course, a 100% RE grid needn't operate any hydrogen plant in base load mode, only to fill in gaps not covered by direct use of solar, wind, and batteries. Very little H2 is actually needed to cover dunkelflauten; somewhat more might be useful for seasonal leveling.

the_third_wave 3y ago

As it stands now it will be a disastrous experiment which will (and already has) affect(ed) the rest of north-western Europe due to the interconnected nature of the electricity network. Electricity prices in the lower half of Sweden have risen dramatically due to this and also due to the fact that our own 'progressive/green' politicos took down half the nuclear generation capacity based on ideological reasoning. This poses a number of questions: - will these ideologically driven apparatchiks ever be held accountable in some way or will they just glide through the promotion circus and end up in cushy positions as ambassador in some warm country, in some UN organisation or as head of some NGO or (like Schroeder [1]) in the board of Gazprom or some similar organisation? - if Germany continues to de-industrialise due to a shortage of affordable power it will only be harder to reach that pie in the sky called the H₂-based economy - can this downward spiral be halted in some way? - how does a country's responsibility to help stabilise the European grid interact with another country's irresponsible experimentation with that stability? While the climate-apostles have boarded their private jets for yet another posh gathering the temperature has steadily dropped, the land is white and frozen and electricity prices have risen up to tenfold. Gas prices are still low but that does not help for those who listened to the apostles and replaced their gas-burning central heating for an electric heat pump. Solar does not help either when snow covers the panels which look out over a steely-gray snow-laden sky (source: I just looked out of the window) nor does wind (source: same the before). [1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gerhard-schroeder-ukraine-gazprom-vladimir-putin-olaf-scholz-b2007898.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gerhard-schr...

pfdietz 3y ago
In a post-fossil fuel age, Germany is fucked energywise anyway compared to sun-drenched lower latitude countries. Unless nuclear in Germany can compete with solar in these places (competing with solar in Germany is not enough), German energy-intensive industries will operate at a great disadvantage.
- ChemSpider 3y ago
  That is not correct. Once the energy cost goes below a certain level, it simply is no longer important compared to other factors like human resources, tax, infrastructure,... . Example: If the kWh/h costs 2 cent in Germany and only 1 cent in country X, that 100% difference would not matter, even for the most energy hungry industries.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    Renewable energy has to get cheaper than it currently is before it becomes less of an economic input than fossil fuels currently are, for many industrial processes. For example, in production of iron renewable energy is competing against the raw chemical energy of coke.
- the_third_wave 3y ago
  > In a post-fossil fuel age, Germany is fucked energywise anyway compared to sun-drenched lower latitude countries Assuming that the 'greens' either get the boot or a revelation which leads to new nuclear power stations being built in Germany I'd say they'll be more than fine at night while during the day they'll be able to use their installed and yet to be installed solar capacity in addition to their base load capacity. If and when the long-term energy storage problem is solved in an actually useable way [1] this can change but until that time any country or region intent on going 'fully renewable' will need a backup base load capacity for those times the sun and wind are absent. The former happens predictably every night and less predictably when the skies are overcast, the latter is as predictable as the weather. That base load can - assuming that 'non-renewable/non-nuclear' sources are out - be nuclear or (possibly pumped) hydroelectric. If the geography allows for (pumped) hydro and if the local 'greens' do not get laws (re)written to block the establishment of such infrastructure that would offer a long-term solution. Realistically speaking most places which allow for large-scale hydroelectric facilities probably already have them. This leaves nuclear power... which is expensive to establish but cheap to run. This combination of facts makes nuclear a good base load provider since running a nuclear power plant at or near maximum capacity does not add much to the expenditures but means the investment in building the plant and the related processing/waste storage facilities is recuperated sooner. Adding solar and wind to the mix will lead to an excess in power during the times these sources produce which will necessitate lowering the output of the nuclear plant which in turn means the investment in building it will take longer before the investment is recuperated. [1] something like 'e-fuels' using captured CO₂ and generated H₂ to create synthetic hydrocarbons - possible but extremely energy-inefficient - or some yet to be developed process

Kon5ole 3y ago

Solar with battery storage seems to have passed nuclear on price 4 years ago, when it was 2-3x more expensive than it is today and perhaps 10x more expensive than it will be before a new nuclear plant can be finished. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-sola... If that's true (and I see no reason to doubt it) Germany will make the cheapest energy in the EU by a country mile in just a few years. Unfortunately, they are bound by treaties to cover the cost of nuclear in other countries, so it won't help them as much as it could. The main problem for solar+storage is that centralized, government-controlled energy production is a huge cash cow for the state. In the EU, the price of electricity gives the governments extra income both when they sell electricity and when they tax the consumption. They can basically drain money from the population at will. I see this declaration as a step to keep things that way, it just makes no sense otherwise.

pfdietz 3y ago
I was told at one point that storage in Germany is inhibited because an entity wanting to operate grid-connected storage had to pay tax on the energy used to charge the storage (and then the output would be taxed again by whoever ultimately consumed it.)
rich_sasha 3y ago
How long do the batteries last? What happens after a week or cloudy winter weather? Battery storage typically seems to smooth out production over about 24hrs, not multiple days and certainly not seasons.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Dunkelflauten (and seasonal leveling) are covered by use of an e-fuel like hydrogen. You can see this effect in action at the optimization/simulation site https://model.energy/ https://model.energy/ Go there, solve for Germany (2011 weather data, 2030 cost assumptions), then disable hydrogen and try again. The optimum cost nearly doubles.