6 ms·

Pending home sales drop to a record low, even worse than the financial crisis

14 points by Judyrabbit 3y ago

elromulous 3y ago
My hypothesis: buyers don't want to buy because the housing bubble and absurdly high interest rates. Sellers know this, and so they don't even bother listing. Anecdotal, but I know a few such would-be sellers in multiple markets in the US.
- ianai 3y ago
  And yet prices will be eventually lower due to the properties that get listed and sell in a timely manner. “Death disease and divorce.” We’re in a sort of awkward period where Wily Coyote has ran past the end of a cliff and has yet to look down and start falling.
  - MR4D 3y ago
    > We’re in a sort of awkward period where Wily Coyote has ran past the end of a cliff and has yet to look down and start falling. That’s the best description I’ve read yet about the current state of the housing market. Awesome visual !
- addicted 3y ago
  Most homeowners own a single home. So a seller also has to be a buyer. If this is not a good time to buy, you will also see fewer units listed for sale because the seller is unable to buy the new house they would want to live in before listing their existing house for sale.
- marcusverus 3y ago
  Buyers have a huge incentive to wait for lower rates, but sellers aren't just passive observers of the situation--they also have a huge incentive not to sell. The vast majority of home owners (i.e. would-be sellers) financed/refinanced their home at the recent historically low rates. For them, selling right now doesn't sense--after all, they'll have to buy another house, and given the high current rates, they would have to pay much more per-month for a similarly-priced house. The free-money music has stopped. Now everyone is cemented to their seats, waiting for the music to start again.
snovymgodym 3y ago
Not shocking at all. Seems like the current housing market neither a buyer nor a seller's market. No one wants to get rid of a 2-4% mortgage if they don't have to. No one wants to take out a loan at 7-8% if they don't have to. So here we are.
oglop 3y ago
Showing my age. That dataset begins in 2001. Think about that. What might have happened to drop interest rates? That then fueled years of stupidity to then? Yep, cause a financial collapse which then caused? Yep, the interested rates to fall back down to even lower rates and have largely been kept there. There’s nothing to glean here. Anyone making a hypothesis off this data needs to stop doing statistics and science.

14 points by Judyrabbit 3y ago

My hypothesis: buyers don't want to buy because the housing bubble and absurdly high interest rates. Sellers know this, and so they don't even bother listing. Anecdotal, but I know a few such would-be sellers in multiple markets in the US.

ianai 3y ago
And yet prices will be eventually lower due to the properties that get listed and sell in a timely manner. “Death disease and divorce.” We’re in a sort of awkward period where Wily Coyote has ran past the end of a cliff and has yet to look down and start falling.
- MR4D 3y ago
  > We’re in a sort of awkward period where Wily Coyote has ran past the end of a cliff and has yet to look down and start falling. That’s the best description I’ve read yet about the current state of the housing market. Awesome visual !
addicted 3y ago
Most homeowners own a single home. So a seller also has to be a buyer. If this is not a good time to buy, you will also see fewer units listed for sale because the seller is unable to buy the new house they would want to live in before listing their existing house for sale.
marcusverus 3y ago
Buyers have a huge incentive to wait for lower rates, but sellers aren't just passive observers of the situation--they also have a huge incentive not to sell. The vast majority of home owners (i.e. would-be sellers) financed/refinanced their home at the recent historically low rates. For them, selling right now doesn't sense--after all, they'll have to buy another house, and given the high current rates, they would have to pay much more per-month for a similarly-priced house. The free-money music has stopped. Now everyone is cemented to their seats, waiting for the music to start again.

snovymgodym 3y ago

Not shocking at all. Seems like the current housing market neither a buyer nor a seller's market. No one wants to get rid of a 2-4% mortgage if they don't have to. No one wants to take out a loan at 7-8% if they don't have to. So here we are.

oglop 3y ago

Showing my age. That dataset begins in 2001. Think about that. What might have happened to drop interest rates? That then fueled years of stupidity to then? Yep, cause a financial collapse which then caused? Yep, the interested rates to fall back down to even lower rates and have largely been kept there. There’s nothing to glean here. Anyone making a hypothesis off this data needs to stop doing statistics and science.