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None of this comment really makes much sense. Toyota was right all along? Toyota has been saying that hydrogen is the future which is just ridiculous consideri

None of this comment really makes much sense. Toyota was right all along? Toyota has been saying that hydrogen is the future which is just ridiculous considering how inefficient and dangerous it is. Also there is no bottleneck in batteries, in fact battery prices are dropping rapidly and more capacity is coming online. An EV, not hybrid, is on track to be the best selling car in the world this year. Most of the problem is that legacy automakers were caught flat footed by the take off in electric vehicle sales and cobbled together a lot of poorly made vehicles or ones that were incompatible with Supercharger locations. Other than Tesla and BYD there aren't many companies doing electric cars well. Electric cars are still exploding in market share and that isn't going to change. It's going to grow

anonymouskimmer 3y ago
> Toyota has been saying that hydrogen is the future which is just ridiculous considering how inefficient and dangerous it is. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-cars-fcev/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-car... : The three hydrogen cars sold in recent years all have EPA-rated ranges of 300 miles or more, though, like EVs, that range falls substantially at higher speeds. : HFCVs are widely considered as safe as any other car; since the high-pressure tanks are designed to survive even the highest-speed crashes without leaking or breaching. https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-earth-may-hold-vast-stores-renewable-carbon-free-fuel https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-eart... : These researchers say water-rock reactions deep within the Earth continuously generate hydrogen, which percolates up through the crust and sometimes accumulates in underground traps. There might be enough natural hydrogen to meet burgeoning global demand for thousands of years, according to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model that was presented in October 2022 at a meeting of the Geological Society of America. And even a US company prospecting for geological hydrogen: http://nh2e.com/ http://nh2e.com/
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  It's an impossible tech. The facilities to dispatch hydro cost millions. Meanwhile you can plug an ev into basically any electric outlet.
  - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
    > Meanwhile you can plug an ev into basically any electric outlet. For slow charging, yes. The infrastructure upgrades for even slow charging, much less fast charging, also are very expensive, at least over a land mass as large and sparsely populated as North America. > The facilities to dispatch hydro cost millions https://www.anl.gov/aet/article/argonnes-quest-for-lowercost-hydrogen-at-the-pump https://www.anl.gov/aet/article/argonnes-quest-for-lowercost... : Elgowainy and Reddi expect the design to save refueling station operators up to 30% on their equipment costs by minimizing the compressor’s down time.
    - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
      Wow they'll bring down the cost by 30% so it will still cost... Millions. Rather than the 2k it costs to have a 240v outlet.
      - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
        https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/07/stop-comparing-number-gas-stations-ev-charging-stations/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/07/stop-comparing-number-g... : Dividing 270 million autos by 1,200,000 pumps = a ratio of 225 autos per available pump. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/costs-revving-up-the-grid-for-electric-vehicles https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/costs-revving-up-the-g... : We found that the representative utility, depending on charging patterns, will need to invest between $1,700 and $5,800 in grid upgrades per electric vehicle (EV) through 2030. So if this and further improvements can get the cost down to about $800k per pump you're at the order of magnitude where they're equivalent, and that's without factoring in the charging stations or home chargers (or the cost of batteries or fuel cells, etcetera, etcetera). https://h2stationmaps.com/costs-and-financing https://h2stationmaps.com/costs-and-financing I'm seeing between $2 and $3.2 million in ~2014 dollars per hydrogen fueling station before this particular efficiency gain is factored in. : As the global demand for hydrogen increases, the economies-of-scale cost reductions will be triggered. NREL projects a cost per station similar to other alternative fuels within 10 years. In addition, lessons learned about design, engineering, and construction will help reduce non-equipment costs.
clouddrover 3y ago
> An EV, not hybrid, is on track to be the best selling car in the world this year. A best selling single model of car isn't very interesting. Other auto groups will split the same fundamental car across different brands. So the sales of a particular model of a particular brand will look lower, but the combined sales across the multiple brands of the auto group are higher. Have a look at the EU's best selling EVs by brand for 2023: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2023 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2023 The Tesla Model Y is the top of the list. But VW, Skoda, and Audi are all Volkswagen brands and the Skoda Enyaq, Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 e-tron sportback, VW ID.4, and the VW ID.5 are different trim levels of what is essentially the same vehicle. If you want the cheap one you get the Skoda, if you want the nicer one you get the Audi. Volkswagen has the most EV market share in Europe because they sell many models across many brands: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y...
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  A best selling single model is way more efficient and profitable than many models. Volkswagen just said they aren't competitive anymore financially. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/27/business/volkswagen-brand-no-longer-competitive/index.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/27/busi...
  - martin8412 3y ago
    Volkswagen within the Volkswagen group isn't competitive anymore.
legitster 3y ago
I think everyone is misreading the hydrogen thing. Japan has very expensive electricity production costs. Fossil fuels have to be imported, and they don't have favorable geography for wind or solar. So their only future is nuclear. Furthermore, developing a large battery infrastructure would create further dependencies on rival economies that don't get along super well with Japan (Korea and China). Given that Japanese auto-makers have already dumped billions of R&D into rival battery technologies that have not yet panned out, it is somewhat understandable that they pushed for hydrogen for their own domestic interests.
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  This has nothing to do with domestic needs. Toyota said they plan to target Europe and China. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-targets-europe-china-hydrogen-sales-pivot-2023-07-11/#:~:text=TOKYO%2C%20July%2011%20(Reuters),2030%2C%20executives%20said%20on%20Tuesday https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota....
  - legitster 3y ago
    > "This may be a strange way of putting it, but 200,000 is not a big number," Toyota's Chief Technology Officer, Hiroki Nakajima told reporters. "We believe this number and more can be achieved." This also seems like a far-cry from Toyota declaring that Hydrogen is the future.
    - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
      Guess you haven't seen what Toyota has been saying for the last 5 years, about how electric cars aren't the future and the future is hydrogen. They have stated this dozens of times. Then in January they said that they changed their mind and the future is electric, then they changed their mind again and went back to hydrogen. They realistically have no idea what they are doing on this but they are profitable so they can deal with their issues easier than others.

anonymouskimmer 3y ago

> Toyota has been saying that hydrogen is the future which is just ridiculous considering how inefficient and dangerous it is. https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-cars-fcev/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-car... : The three hydrogen cars sold in recent years all have EPA-rated ranges of 300 miles or more, though, like EVs, that range falls substantially at higher speeds. : HFCVs are widely considered as safe as any other car; since the high-pressure tanks are designed to survive even the highest-speed crashes without leaking or breaching. https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-earth-may-hold-vast-stores-renewable-carbon-free-fuel https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-eart... : These researchers say water-rock reactions deep within the Earth continuously generate hydrogen, which percolates up through the crust and sometimes accumulates in underground traps. There might be enough natural hydrogen to meet burgeoning global demand for thousands of years, according to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model that was presented in October 2022 at a meeting of the Geological Society of America. And even a US company prospecting for geological hydrogen: http://nh2e.com/ http://nh2e.com/

DoesntMatter22 3y ago
It's an impossible tech. The facilities to dispatch hydro cost millions. Meanwhile you can plug an ev into basically any electric outlet.
- anonymouskimmer 3y ago
  > Meanwhile you can plug an ev into basically any electric outlet. For slow charging, yes. The infrastructure upgrades for even slow charging, much less fast charging, also are very expensive, at least over a land mass as large and sparsely populated as North America. > The facilities to dispatch hydro cost millions https://www.anl.gov/aet/article/argonnes-quest-for-lowercost-hydrogen-at-the-pump https://www.anl.gov/aet/article/argonnes-quest-for-lowercost... : Elgowainy and Reddi expect the design to save refueling station operators up to 30% on their equipment costs by minimizing the compressor’s down time.
  - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
    Wow they'll bring down the cost by 30% so it will still cost... Millions. Rather than the 2k it costs to have a 240v outlet.
    - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/07/stop-comparing-number-gas-stations-ev-charging-stations/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/07/stop-comparing-number-g... : Dividing 270 million autos by 1,200,000 pumps = a ratio of 225 autos per available pump. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/costs-revving-up-the-grid-for-electric-vehicles https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/costs-revving-up-the-g... : We found that the representative utility, depending on charging patterns, will need to invest between $1,700 and $5,800 in grid upgrades per electric vehicle (EV) through 2030. So if this and further improvements can get the cost down to about $800k per pump you're at the order of magnitude where they're equivalent, and that's without factoring in the charging stations or home chargers (or the cost of batteries or fuel cells, etcetera, etcetera). https://h2stationmaps.com/costs-and-financing https://h2stationmaps.com/costs-and-financing I'm seeing between $2 and $3.2 million in ~2014 dollars per hydrogen fueling station before this particular efficiency gain is factored in. : As the global demand for hydrogen increases, the economies-of-scale cost reductions will be triggered. NREL projects a cost per station similar to other alternative fuels within 10 years. In addition, lessons learned about design, engineering, and construction will help reduce non-equipment costs.

clouddrover 3y ago

> An EV, not hybrid, is on track to be the best selling car in the world this year. A best selling single model of car isn't very interesting. Other auto groups will split the same fundamental car across different brands. So the sales of a particular model of a particular brand will look lower, but the combined sales across the multiple brands of the auto group are higher. Have a look at the EU's best selling EVs by brand for 2023: https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2023 https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Brands/Year/2023 The Tesla Model Y is the top of the list. But VW, Skoda, and Audi are all Volkswagen brands and the Skoda Enyaq, Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 e-tron sportback, VW ID.4, and the VW ID.5 are different trim levels of what is essentially the same vehicle. If you want the cheap one you get the Skoda, if you want the nicer one you get the Audi. Volkswagen has the most EV market share in Europe because they sell many models across many brands: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y...

DoesntMatter22 3y ago
A best selling single model is way more efficient and profitable than many models. Volkswagen just said they aren't competitive anymore financially. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/27/business/volkswagen-brand-no-longer-competitive/index.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/27/busi...
- martin8412 3y ago
  Volkswagen within the Volkswagen group isn't competitive anymore.

legitster 3y ago

I think everyone is misreading the hydrogen thing. Japan has very expensive electricity production costs. Fossil fuels have to be imported, and they don't have favorable geography for wind or solar. So their only future is nuclear. Furthermore, developing a large battery infrastructure would create further dependencies on rival economies that don't get along super well with Japan (Korea and China). Given that Japanese auto-makers have already dumped billions of R&D into rival battery technologies that have not yet panned out, it is somewhat understandable that they pushed for hydrogen for their own domestic interests.

DoesntMatter22 3y ago
This has nothing to do with domestic needs. Toyota said they plan to target Europe and China. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-targets-europe-china-hydrogen-sales-pivot-2023-07-11/#:~:text=TOKYO%2C%20July%2011%20(Reuters),2030%2C%20executives%20said%20on%20Tuesday https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota....
- legitster 3y ago
  > "This may be a strange way of putting it, but 200,000 is not a big number," Toyota's Chief Technology Officer, Hiroki Nakajima told reporters. "We believe this number and more can be achieved." This also seems like a far-cry from Toyota declaring that Hydrogen is the future.
  - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
    Guess you haven't seen what Toyota has been saying for the last 5 years, about how electric cars aren't the future and the future is hydrogen. They have stated this dozens of times. Then in January they said that they changed their mind and the future is electric, then they changed their mind again and went back to hydrogen. They realistically have no idea what they are doing on this but they are profitable so they can deal with their issues easier than others.