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TSMC does have access to ASML EUV litography machines, though.

by manuelabeledo 3y ago

angiosperm 3y ago
Others have found success using cheaper tech to the same ends.
- manuelabeledo 3y ago
  Who, exactly? Closest may be SMIC 7nm on multi patterning, which they cannot produce at scale and is still 2-3 generations behind TSMC [0] Canon nanoimprint will not be available to China either. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-security-concerns-over-chinas-domestically-produced-high-end-chip https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-secur...
tambourine_man 3y ago
It’s crazy hard, for sure, specially with all these commercial embargos now on China. But no one had ever beaten Intel in 50 years, until someone did. There’s no monopoly on knowledge and I wouldn’t bet against the world’s second economy with its government directly financing a strategic sector.
roenxi 3y ago
China have a population of 1 billion people, access to the pool of advanced manufacturing and hardware experience of East Asia and demonstrated expertise at high tech and manufacturing. "They can't buy machines from this Swiss company!" is not really much of a barrier when we look at the resources they have available. Over 12 months, that is a problem for them. Maybe 5 years. In a decade, ASML relying very heavily on the CCP shooting themselves and their people in the foot to still be a differentiator. When talking about the sheer scale of 10% of the globe's population, you need a lot more than one technical dot point to say they can't do something.
- klelatti 3y ago
  ASML? Swiss?? Nee! Don’t disagree with your general point though. Also there is always the option of industrial espionage as we have seen. Leaving the politics aside, it will be interesting to see what technical solutions emerge if the ‘easy’ option of spending a few hundred million dollars on a couple of EUV machines isn’t available.
  - roenxi 3y ago
    Heh, oops. I thought precision and went with Swiss. How thoughtless. And I'd assume the answer is spending a few billion dollars developing a couple of EUV machines over a long time. It isn't like a billion dollars is much money and the Chinese economy is reaching the point where people will be looking to muscle in to precision manufacturing. It isn't like cheap labour is an option any more. They've already overwhelmed the Europeans in a bunch of phone and computer related areas so there is evidence that the Europeans probably can't maintain a competitive edge if the Chinese want to get good at something. Honestly, given what happened with the iPhone and Nokia I don't know how anyone is placing faith in the Chinese not being able to catch up. European tech companies have a history of looking unbeatable until they're just knocked completely out of the race. If anything the threat is that Europe won't be able to keep up with Asia.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- manuelabeledo 3y ago
  You may be right, but we will need to wait and see. China is not the first to take a crack at this. Attempts to replicate and catch up with American and European chipmaking and computing efforts go back to the dawn of the discipline, and had involved some of the largest economies of their times, yet here we are.
  - FooBarWidget 3y ago
    Other attempts to crack this failed mostly for economic reasons, not technical. Of course, not understating how hard it is technically, but the bigger problem was that competitors didn't have the funds nor the risk appetite to invest 20+ years of R&D into something that may or may not work. We now know it works. Before, why should China bother when they can just buy from western suppliers and TSMC instead? Now we gave China no other choice but to invest 10-20 years into this until they have something that works. This is why you see all the chip manufacturing equipment makers in China have something like 150-200% YoY growth in the past 3 years. Their R&D centers are pursuing multiple avenues to make sub-5nm chips possible. Not only multiple avenues of making EUV work, but also non-EUV avenues. It just so happens that starting this year we know that nanoimprint lithography works, and is cheaper than EUV. Huawei's newest CPU performs on par with CPUs on smaller nodes. That's because Huawei invested heavily in CPU design and heat dissipation technology. They haven't even gone into advanced packaging yet. Will they stay behind western technology forever because we have an R&D lead? People who claim this are ignoring a big factor: they will no longer be able to profit from Chinese buyers. These profits are necessary for future R&D investment, which is necessary to maintain the lead and R&D speed.
pantalaimon 3y ago
Let's see where SMEE (Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment) will be in 10 years.

TSMC does have access to ASML EUV litography machines, though.

angiosperm 3y ago

Others have found success using cheaper tech to the same ends.

manuelabeledo 3y ago
Who, exactly? Closest may be SMIC 7nm on multi patterning, which they cannot produce at scale and is still 2-3 generations behind TSMC [0] Canon nanoimprint will not be available to China either. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-security-concerns-over-chinas-domestically-produced-high-end-chip https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-secur...

tambourine_man 3y ago

It’s crazy hard, for sure, specially with all these commercial embargos now on China. But no one had ever beaten Intel in 50 years, until someone did. There’s no monopoly on knowledge and I wouldn’t bet against the world’s second economy with its government directly financing a strategic sector.

roenxi 3y ago

China have a population of 1 billion people, access to the pool of advanced manufacturing and hardware experience of East Asia and demonstrated expertise at high tech and manufacturing. "They can't buy machines from this Swiss company!" is not really much of a barrier when we look at the resources they have available. Over 12 months, that is a problem for them. Maybe 5 years. In a decade, ASML relying very heavily on the CCP shooting themselves and their people in the foot to still be a differentiator. When talking about the sheer scale of 10% of the globe's population, you need a lot more than one technical dot point to say they can't do something.

klelatti 3y ago
ASML? Swiss?? Nee! Don’t disagree with your general point though. Also there is always the option of industrial espionage as we have seen. Leaving the politics aside, it will be interesting to see what technical solutions emerge if the ‘easy’ option of spending a few hundred million dollars on a couple of EUV machines isn’t available.
- roenxi 3y ago
  Heh, oops. I thought precision and went with Swiss. How thoughtless. And I'd assume the answer is spending a few billion dollars developing a couple of EUV machines over a long time. It isn't like a billion dollars is much money and the Chinese economy is reaching the point where people will be looking to muscle in to precision manufacturing. It isn't like cheap labour is an option any more. They've already overwhelmed the Europeans in a bunch of phone and computer related areas so there is evidence that the Europeans probably can't maintain a competitive edge if the Chinese want to get good at something. Honestly, given what happened with the iPhone and Nokia I don't know how anyone is placing faith in the Chinese not being able to catch up. European tech companies have a history of looking unbeatable until they're just knocked completely out of the race. If anything the threat is that Europe won't be able to keep up with Asia.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
manuelabeledo 3y ago
You may be right, but we will need to wait and see. China is not the first to take a crack at this. Attempts to replicate and catch up with American and European chipmaking and computing efforts go back to the dawn of the discipline, and had involved some of the largest economies of their times, yet here we are.
- FooBarWidget 3y ago
  Other attempts to crack this failed mostly for economic reasons, not technical. Of course, not understating how hard it is technically, but the bigger problem was that competitors didn't have the funds nor the risk appetite to invest 20+ years of R&D into something that may or may not work. We now know it works. Before, why should China bother when they can just buy from western suppliers and TSMC instead? Now we gave China no other choice but to invest 10-20 years into this until they have something that works. This is why you see all the chip manufacturing equipment makers in China have something like 150-200% YoY growth in the past 3 years. Their R&D centers are pursuing multiple avenues to make sub-5nm chips possible. Not only multiple avenues of making EUV work, but also non-EUV avenues. It just so happens that starting this year we know that nanoimprint lithography works, and is cheaper than EUV. Huawei's newest CPU performs on par with CPUs on smaller nodes. That's because Huawei invested heavily in CPU design and heat dissipation technology. They haven't even gone into advanced packaging yet. Will they stay behind western technology forever because we have an R&D lead? People who claim this are ignoring a big factor: they will no longer be able to profit from Chinese buyers. These profits are necessary for future R&D investment, which is necessary to maintain the lead and R&D speed.

pantalaimon 3y ago

Let's see where SMEE (Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment) will be in 10 years.