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If you told anyone in 2013 that TSMC would be a few nodes ahead of Intel you'd be laughed out of the room. So who knows, maybe China can do the same. I'm flabbe
by tambourine_man 3y ago
If you told anyone in 2013 that TSMC would be a few nodes ahead of Intel you'd be laughed out of the room. So who knows, maybe China can do the same. I'm flabbergasted how the west lost its lead in manufacturing in geral. Nothing surprises me anymore there.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- manuelabeledo 3y agoTSMC does have access to ASML EUV litography machines, though.
- angiosperm 3y agoOthers have found success using cheaper tech to the same ends.
- manuelabeledo 3y agoWho, exactly? Closest may be SMIC 7nm on multi patterning, which they cannot produce at scale and is still 2-3 generations behind TSMC [0] Canon nanoimprint will not be available to China either. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-security-concerns-over-chinas-domestically-produced-high-end-chip https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-secur...
- tambourine_man 3y agoIt’s crazy hard, for sure, specially with all these commercial embargos now on China. But no one had ever beaten Intel in 50 years, until someone did. There’s no monopoly on knowledge and I wouldn’t bet against the world’s second economy with its government directly financing a strategic sector.
- roenxi 3y agoChina have a population of 1 billion people, access to the pool of advanced manufacturing and hardware experience of East Asia and demonstrated expertise at high tech and manufacturing. "They can't buy machines from this Swiss company!" is not really much of a barrier when we look at the resources they have available. Over 12 months, that is a problem for them. Maybe 5 years. In a decade, ASML relying very heavily on the CCP shooting themselves and their people in the foot to still be a differentiator. When talking about the sheer scale of 10% of the globe's population, you need a lot more than one technical dot point to say they can't do something.
- klelatti 3y agoASML? Swiss?? Nee! Don’t disagree with your general point though. Also there is always the option of industrial espionage as we have seen. Leaving the politics aside, it will be interesting to see what technical solutions emerge if the ‘easy’ option of spending a few hundred million dollars on a couple of EUV machines isn’t available.
- roenxi 3y agoHeh, oops. I thought precision and went with Swiss. How thoughtless. And I'd assume the answer is spending a few billion dollars developing a couple of EUV machines over a long time. It isn't like a billion dollars is much money and the Chinese economy is reaching the point where people will be looking to muscle in to precision manufacturing. It isn't like cheap labour is an option any more. They've already overwhelmed the Europeans in a bunch of phone and computer related areas so there is evidence that the Europeans probably can't maintain a competitive edge if the Chinese want to get good at something. Honestly, given what happened with the iPhone and Nokia I don't know how anyone is placing faith in the Chinese not being able to catch up. European tech companies have a history of looking unbeatable until they're just knocked completely out of the race. If anything the threat is that Europe won't be able to keep up with Asia.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- pantalaimon 3y agoLet's see where SMEE (Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment) will be in 10 years.
- xcv123 3y agoTSMC depends on ASML lithography equipment for manufacturing. Europeans have the leading technology.