5 ms·

Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think anyone is suggesting that China isn't capable of building an efficient and powerful CPU or not, but will they, at any point, ca

Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think anyone is suggesting that China isn't capable of building an efficient and powerful CPU or not, but will they, at any point, catch up to contemporary CPUs from Intel, AMD, Apple, etc.?

baz00 3y ago
I am suggesting that they can't. They have a serious innovation problem. A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West. They also don't have anything like ASML available to them. And to get this out SMIC ripped off TSMC intellectual property. I'm not saying they won't deliver useful silicon but they won't be delivering comparable silicon. And it'll be under trade embargo no doubt due to the IP issues so they will have a very limited market to scale into. This happened before (GDR) and the products were never competitive. I think the best thing they have done though is kick out compatible ATmega parts and the STM32 parts. They're really killing it there.
- meepmorp 3y ago
  > A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West IIRC, Loongson was a straight copy of MIPS with the names changed (in the first few iterations, at least).
- xcv123 3y ago
  > And it'll be under trade embargo no doubt due to the IP issues so they will have a very limited market to scale into. This was created for their own domestic market. China's goal is achieve independence of foreign technology. With 1.3 billion people they have a very large market.
- FooBarWidget 3y ago
  > A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West This is also called learning by doing. This is how skill and expertise is most efficiently developed in the very beginning. This trope of assuming that copying is inherently valueless or devoid of creativity or innovation is simply wrong, and comes from an implicit assumption of superiority of the self. They may not innovate as much as you expect now. But they are building a foundation for future innovation. Also: Huawei is still leader in 5G technology, with the best products. You should look at their patents, they own the majority of 5G patents.
- pantalaimon 3y ago
  > I think the best thing they have done though is kick out compatible ATmega parts and the STM32 parts. They're really killing it there. GigaDevice and WCH have completely new MCUs now based on RISC-V. They keep the STM32 peripheral register interface for easy driver re-use, but they are well beyond mere copies these days. https://wch-ic.com/products/categories/47.html?pid=5 https://wch-ic.com/products/categories/47.html?pid=5 https://www.gigadevice.com/product/mcu https://www.gigadevice.com/product/mcu
tambourine_man 3y ago
If you told anyone in 2013 that TSMC would be a few nodes ahead of Intel you'd be laughed out of the room. So who knows, maybe China can do the same. I'm flabbergasted how the west lost its lead in manufacturing in geral. Nothing surprises me anymore there.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- manuelabeledo 3y ago
  TSMC does have access to ASML EUV litography machines, though.
  - angiosperm 3y ago
    Others have found success using cheaper tech to the same ends.
    - manuelabeledo 3y ago
      Who, exactly? Closest may be SMIC 7nm on multi patterning, which they cannot produce at scale and is still 2-3 generations behind TSMC [0] Canon nanoimprint will not be available to China either. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-security-concerns-over-chinas-domestically-produced-high-end-chip https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-secur...
  - tambourine_man 3y ago
    It’s crazy hard, for sure, specially with all these commercial embargos now on China. But no one had ever beaten Intel in 50 years, until someone did. There’s no monopoly on knowledge and I wouldn’t bet against the world’s second economy with its government directly financing a strategic sector.
  - roenxi 3y ago
    China have a population of 1 billion people, access to the pool of advanced manufacturing and hardware experience of East Asia and demonstrated expertise at high tech and manufacturing. "They can't buy machines from this Swiss company!" is not really much of a barrier when we look at the resources they have available. Over 12 months, that is a problem for them. Maybe 5 years. In a decade, ASML relying very heavily on the CCP shooting themselves and their people in the foot to still be a differentiator. When talking about the sheer scale of 10% of the globe's population, you need a lot more than one technical dot point to say they can't do something.

baz00 3y ago

I am suggesting that they can't. They have a serious innovation problem. A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West. They also don't have anything like ASML available to them. And to get this out SMIC ripped off TSMC intellectual property. I'm not saying they won't deliver useful silicon but they won't be delivering comparable silicon. And it'll be under trade embargo no doubt due to the IP issues so they will have a very limited market to scale into. This happened before (GDR) and the products were never competitive. I think the best thing they have done though is kick out compatible ATmega parts and the STM32 parts. They're really killing it there.

meepmorp 3y ago
> A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West IIRC, Loongson was a straight copy of MIPS with the names changed (in the first few iterations, at least).
xcv123 3y ago
> And it'll be under trade embargo no doubt due to the IP issues so they will have a very limited market to scale into. This was created for their own domestic market. China's goal is achieve independence of foreign technology. With 1.3 billion people they have a very large market.
FooBarWidget 3y ago
> A lot of their designs started out stolen or cloned from the West This is also called learning by doing. This is how skill and expertise is most efficiently developed in the very beginning. This trope of assuming that copying is inherently valueless or devoid of creativity or innovation is simply wrong, and comes from an implicit assumption of superiority of the self. They may not innovate as much as you expect now. But they are building a foundation for future innovation. Also: Huawei is still leader in 5G technology, with the best products. You should look at their patents, they own the majority of 5G patents.
pantalaimon 3y ago
> I think the best thing they have done though is kick out compatible ATmega parts and the STM32 parts. They're really killing it there. GigaDevice and WCH have completely new MCUs now based on RISC-V. They keep the STM32 peripheral register interface for easy driver re-use, but they are well beyond mere copies these days. https://wch-ic.com/products/categories/47.html?pid=5 https://wch-ic.com/products/categories/47.html?pid=5 https://www.gigadevice.com/product/mcu https://www.gigadevice.com/product/mcu

tambourine_man 3y ago

If you told anyone in 2013 that TSMC would be a few nodes ahead of Intel you'd be laughed out of the room. So who knows, maybe China can do the same. I'm flabbergasted how the west lost its lead in manufacturing in geral. Nothing surprises me anymore there.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
manuelabeledo 3y ago
TSMC does have access to ASML EUV litography machines, though.
- angiosperm 3y ago
  Others have found success using cheaper tech to the same ends.
  - manuelabeledo 3y ago
    Who, exactly? Closest may be SMIC 7nm on multi patterning, which they cannot produce at scale and is still 2-3 generations behind TSMC [0] Canon nanoimprint will not be available to China either. [0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-security-concerns-over-chinas-domestically-produced-high-end-chip https://www.csis.org/analysis/contextualizing-national-secur...
- tambourine_man 3y ago
  It’s crazy hard, for sure, specially with all these commercial embargos now on China. But no one had ever beaten Intel in 50 years, until someone did. There’s no monopoly on knowledge and I wouldn’t bet against the world’s second economy with its government directly financing a strategic sector.
- roenxi 3y ago
  China have a population of 1 billion people, access to the pool of advanced manufacturing and hardware experience of East Asia and demonstrated expertise at high tech and manufacturing. "They can't buy machines from this Swiss company!" is not really much of a barrier when we look at the resources they have available. Over 12 months, that is a problem for them. Maybe 5 years. In a decade, ASML relying very heavily on the CCP shooting themselves and their people in the foot to still be a differentiator. When talking about the sheer scale of 10% of the globe's population, you need a lot more than one technical dot point to say they can't do something.