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So, the "Big Thinks" assertion here is that sometimes people are wrong and as a result incorrectly predict the future and that this pattern continues today. T
by akira2501 3y ago
So, the "Big Thinks" assertion here is that sometimes people are wrong and as a result incorrectly predict the future and that this pattern continues today. This is all so obvious and leads to no specific conclusion so I have to wonder, who is this article actually _for_? People who just don't like hearing the word "no?"
The Navy general was partly right. The government was the wrong entity to pursue flight and it was best left in private hands.
The New York Times was partly right. It took a lot of work to develop commercial and military flight to the level it is now. They were also on the verge of a worldwide communications upgrade, so those 10m person years came together faster than imagined.
The other article is also partly right. Flight is not so cheap that it is widely available, there are billions of living people on this planet who will never fly because they will never have enough money to afford it before they die.
The British astronomer just wanted a telescope instead of individual space travel. He was arguing about the best way to use a limited amount of money and specifically disclaimed any ability to predict the future.
Finally.. the original idea of the Apollo program was incredibly ambitious and was put forward in a top down fashion by the president. This was unprecedented for peace time America. Even then, they have to acknowledge that half the country was on board, and a vast majority actually sat down and watched the spectacle.
I hate articles like this, they try to wash away all nuance to end up with a self serving conclusion designed to mollify the "move fast and break things" crowd. The "Big Think" does some of the smallest thinking I've ever seen.
- angiosperm 3y agoThe cost of the Apollo program was pretty cheap considering it also, in remarkably short order, delivered integrated circuits, fly-by-wire aircraft control, and GPS navigation. Claims on other advances might be taken with somewhat more skepticism, particularly as regards the ISS, STS, and wholly too numerous Mars landers, but it would be hard to justify complaints about the cost of Galileo or Cassini/Huygens.
- quickthrowman 3y agoThe bigthink article took a joke out of context and called it a prediction. Here is the full NYT article text, the author is clearly making a joke about planes needing to evolve wings like birds did: http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2016/02/pessimistic-predictions-which-do-not-fly/ http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2016/02/pessimistic-pre... Whatever conclusion the big think article draws is on a misreading of the source NYT article.