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This is just a fake till make it thing. It is too often now and people forget it’s name.

rickdeckard 3y ago
Isn't "fake it till you make it" about presenting self-confidence in achieving something despite not (yet) having the skills to do so? What Tesla did was starting a presale on a product they probably had no intention or resources to actually build, in order to get a cash-injection to continue working on Model3 ramp-up... I'd argue even the cybertruck wasn't seeing much of development work beyond that presentation during that period, considering that the self-praised exoskeletton chassis of it actually turned out to be impractical and was dropped entirely.
- karamanolev 3y ago
  Wasn't it the case that the exoskeleton design was drop in favor of the (industry standard) unibody?
  - rickdeckard 3y ago
    Yes, you're right, I mixed up the terms. Corrected my post there, thanks!
jauntywundrkind 3y ago
What's so pernicious though is the fail it till you make it. This absurdly performant roadster 2 isn't going to happen, ever. Tesla semi seems unlikely to be real. Cybertruck seems dubious. There's no skunkworks team of engineers that can go wild & make dreams fantastic dreams real here. But just riding the grift, riding the promises along, that's been ok. There's been no checks. The lies enabled survival amid the darkest times, actually: the fantastic lies are the only thing that counted, for a while. You say "it is too often now" but actually it feels like the opposite. There isn't anyone left swinging for big, as far as I can tell. Everyone is receeding. No one is making new big claims. I don't like the lies, but I think we are better as a species holding ourselves in some heat of competition, to be good, to try hard, and it feels like we're in a diminishing expectations world, and that... that is shit. That is the failure mode, where the broadband efforts of trying all cojointly give up. I don't like it.
- huytersd 3y ago
  The semi will happen. The cybertruck will work but it’s goddamn ugly and the trunk is small and useless. The roadster always seemed too good to be true, it’s not going to happen. A 600 miles per charge is a rubicon and we’re not there yet.
  - dkrich 3y ago
    Things are only going to get more difficult for them as money gets tighter. Auto manufacturing is a notoriously capital intensive business and running factories with lots of employees is very expensive. You have to make enough money to keep the factories open and the workers employed. I think very soon the new realities of the post zirp world are going to catch up. Even if this monstrosity was released on time and people actually wanted them (a big if) I still think they would struggle mightily to move them after the early adopters for the simple fact that these are very expensive vehicles. Which brings me to the most incredible point in all this- they are claiming sales when people don’t even know what it costs!
  - jwestbury 3y ago
    The Lucid Air Dream managed >500 miles per charge in multiple real-world tests. The EQXX concept from Mercedes has managed >620 miles in two separate real-world tests, though admittedly it probably benefits from ideal conditions and doesn't have to deal with the challenges of being produced at scale.
- dkrich 3y ago
  That he makes up products they have no intention of delivering on has been obvious for a few years now. What’s so perplexing is why the market continues to reward it. The company has a $800 billion market cap and an 80 pe. I suspect it’s on a long road back to reality and being given some premium because of the first mover advantage, but still the company is basically BMW with the illusion of being run by the next Steve Jobs.
  - bagels 3y ago
    I'm pretty sure that flying roadster is going to be here soon. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/elon-musk-teases-flying-tesla-roadsters.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/elon-musk-teases-flying-tesl...

Isn't "fake it till you make it" about presenting self-confidence in achieving something despite not (yet) having the skills to do so? What Tesla did was starting a presale on a product they probably had no intention or resources to actually build, in order to get a cash-injection to continue working on Model3 ramp-up... I'd argue even the cybertruck wasn't seeing much of development work beyond that presentation during that period, considering that the self-praised exoskeletton chassis of it actually turned out to be impractical and was dropped entirely.

karamanolev 3y ago
Wasn't it the case that the exoskeleton design was drop in favor of the (industry standard) unibody?
- rickdeckard 3y ago
  Yes, you're right, I mixed up the terms. Corrected my post there, thanks!

jauntywundrkind 3y ago

What's so pernicious though is the fail it till you make it. This absurdly performant roadster 2 isn't going to happen, ever. Tesla semi seems unlikely to be real. Cybertruck seems dubious. There's no skunkworks team of engineers that can go wild & make dreams fantastic dreams real here. But just riding the grift, riding the promises along, that's been ok. There's been no checks. The lies enabled survival amid the darkest times, actually: the fantastic lies are the only thing that counted, for a while. You say "it is too often now" but actually it feels like the opposite. There isn't anyone left swinging for big, as far as I can tell. Everyone is receeding. No one is making new big claims. I don't like the lies, but I think we are better as a species holding ourselves in some heat of competition, to be good, to try hard, and it feels like we're in a diminishing expectations world, and that... that is shit. That is the failure mode, where the broadband efforts of trying all cojointly give up. I don't like it.

huytersd 3y ago
The semi will happen. The cybertruck will work but it’s goddamn ugly and the trunk is small and useless. The roadster always seemed too good to be true, it’s not going to happen. A 600 miles per charge is a rubicon and we’re not there yet.
- dkrich 3y ago
  Things are only going to get more difficult for them as money gets tighter. Auto manufacturing is a notoriously capital intensive business and running factories with lots of employees is very expensive. You have to make enough money to keep the factories open and the workers employed. I think very soon the new realities of the post zirp world are going to catch up. Even if this monstrosity was released on time and people actually wanted them (a big if) I still think they would struggle mightily to move them after the early adopters for the simple fact that these are very expensive vehicles. Which brings me to the most incredible point in all this- they are claiming sales when people don’t even know what it costs!
- jwestbury 3y ago
  The Lucid Air Dream managed >500 miles per charge in multiple real-world tests. The EQXX concept from Mercedes has managed >620 miles in two separate real-world tests, though admittedly it probably benefits from ideal conditions and doesn't have to deal with the challenges of being produced at scale.
dkrich 3y ago
That he makes up products they have no intention of delivering on has been obvious for a few years now. What’s so perplexing is why the market continues to reward it. The company has a $800 billion market cap and an 80 pe. I suspect it’s on a long road back to reality and being given some premium because of the first mover advantage, but still the company is basically BMW with the illusion of being run by the next Steve Jobs.
- bagels 3y ago
  I'm pretty sure that flying roadster is going to be here soon. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/elon-musk-teases-flying-tesla-roadsters.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/elon-musk-teases-flying-tesl...