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The parent post suggests that Google's moat is search quality, I suspect that is not true. Google earns about $70-80B a year, if they even suspected there was a

The parent post suggests that Google's moat is search quality, I suspect that is not true. Google earns about $70-80B a year, if they even suspected there was a way to reduce or eliminate a $20B yearly expense it would be top priority to investigate. We can assume they've looked at this problem from a lot of angles. That they keep paying implies they have a lot of confidence that it's necessary and if they didn't have the default slot a lot of users would use something else.

to11mtm 3y ago
I think they are in a minor prisoner's dilemma at this point. Apple is now secure enough in their standing for mobile that they wouldn't be afraid to switch to Bing under the right circumstances[0][1]. Ironically I'm reminded of the days where Intel would pay Dell to not use AMD (even though they weren't always better) and even Intel was aware it was a devil's bargain and could let them get bullied. This does all lead to an interesting question; What are the value props of all of these deals? If their product is so good, why do they need to spend the money on the default slot? And what do they know is 'missing' that makes it worth them to pay third parties to convince them? [0] - Whether those circumstances are easily achievable is out of scope of this theorycraft. [1] - Apple probably could buy a search engine, but they are smart enough not to for lots of reasons. (mostly from the aspects of 'attracting regulatory attention' and 'can they keep improving it')
- hedgehog 3y ago
  I tried switching to Duck Duck Go a while back and so far haven't returned to Google. Some things are better on Google but for my usage pattern it doesn't seem to be a clear win any more, and I'm somewhat picky. What I take from that is if Apple switched default search providers most people wouldn't care or wouldn't bother changing the setting. So my guess is Apple likes the money and doesn't have any motivation to rock the boat, while Google is worried that losing Apple would both cost them revenue directly and create room for competitors to grow. Stable situation for now.

to11mtm 3y ago

I think they are in a minor prisoner's dilemma at this point. Apple is now secure enough in their standing for mobile that they wouldn't be afraid to switch to Bing under the right circumstances[0][1]. Ironically I'm reminded of the days where Intel would pay Dell to not use AMD (even though they weren't always better) and even Intel was aware it was a devil's bargain and could let them get bullied. This does all lead to an interesting question; What are the value props of all of these deals? If their product is so good, why do they need to spend the money on the default slot? And what do they know is 'missing' that makes it worth them to pay third parties to convince them? [0] - Whether those circumstances are easily achievable is out of scope of this theorycraft. [1] - Apple probably could buy a search engine, but they are smart enough not to for lots of reasons. (mostly from the aspects of 'attracting regulatory attention' and 'can they keep improving it')

hedgehog 3y ago
I tried switching to Duck Duck Go a while back and so far haven't returned to Google. Some things are better on Google but for my usage pattern it doesn't seem to be a clear win any more, and I'm somewhat picky. What I take from that is if Apple switched default search providers most people wouldn't care or wouldn't bother changing the setting. So my guess is Apple likes the money and doesn't have any motivation to rock the boat, while Google is worried that losing Apple would both cost them revenue directly and create room for competitors to grow. Stable situation for now.